Modeling Disinterest and Dislike: A Bounded Bayesian Mixed Logit Model of the UK Market for GM Food

Mixed logit models represent a powerful discrete choice analytical model but require assumptions about the functional form of the parameter distributions. The use of unbounded distributions, such as the normal distribution, may be regarded as unsuitable where theory indicates that all are negatively affected by increases in an attribute, such as price. Bounded distributions such as the triangular and log-normal are unable to model the case where a section of the population is indifferent towards an attribute, while the remainder are negatively disposed toward it. Train and Sonnier’s bounded mixed logit model accommodates these features and is employed in this paper. A censored normal and Johnson’s S_b distribution are used to model preferences in the UK for food attributes, including price and GM technology. Bi-modal distributions are identified regarding GM food: some are unlikely to ever consume it, some are close to indifference and willing to consume at relatively small discounts while the remainder are fairly unresponsive to further price reductions.     

Trading away what kind of jobs? Globalization,trade and tasks in the US economy

Economists and other social scientists are calling for a reassessment of the impact of international trade on labor markets in developed and developing countries. Classical models of globalization and trade, based upon the international exchange of finished goods, fail to capture the fragmentation of much commodity production and the geographical separation of individual production tasks. This fragmentation, captured in the growing volume of intra-industry trade, prompts investigation of the effects of trade within, rather than between, sectors of the economy. In this paper we examine the relationship between international trade and the task structure of US employment. We link disaggregate US trade data from 1972 to 2006, the NBER manufacturing database, the Decennial Census, and occupational and task data from the Dictionary of Occupational Titles. Within-industry shifts in task characteristics are linked to import competition and technological change. Our results suggest that trade has played a major role in the growth in relative demand for nonroutine tasks, particularly those requiring high levels of interpersonal interaction.     

Reviews

“THE POLL TAX” Flannery, Kate, 1987: More than Just a Poll Tax. Centre for Local Economic Strategies, £5.00. MacGregor, Susanne, 1988: The Poll Tax and the Enterprise Culture. Manchester: Centre for Local Economic Strategies, £3.95.

“ECONOMIC THEORY AND THE LOCAL ECONOMY” Smith, D., 1987: The Rise and Fall of Monetarism: The Theory and Politics of an Economic Experiment. Penguin, £3.95.

Holland, S., 1987: The Market Economy: From Micro to Mesoeconomics and The Global Economy: From Meso to Macroeconomics, Weidenfeld, £12.95 each.

Green, F. and Sutcliffe, B., 1987: The Profit System: The Economics of Capitalism. Penguin, £5.95.

“THE SERVICES REVOLUTION?” Rajan, A., 1987: Services: The Second Industrial Revolution? London: Butterworths, £27.50.

“ENVIRONMENT AND ECONOMY IN EUROPE” Joyce, F. E. and Schneider, G. (editors), 1988: Environment and Economic Development in the Regions of the European Community. Aldershot: Avebury/Gower, £18.50 hb.

“POLITICS OF PRIVATISATION” Ascher, K., 1987: The Politics of Privatisation: Contracting Out Public Services. London: Macmillan Education Ltd. £30.00 cloth, £8.95 paper.

“RECRUITMENT AND TRAINING POLICY” Davies, T. and Mason, C., 1986: Shutting out the Inner City Worker. University of Bristol, School for Advanced Urban Studies, £4.30.

Chapman, P. G. and Tooze, M. J., 1987: The Youth Training Scheme in the United Kingdom. Avebury: Gower Publishing Company, £22.50.

“JOB GENERATION RESEARCH” Storey, D. J. and Johnson, S., 1987: Job Generation and Labour Market Change. London: Macmillan.     

Cheap Imports and the Loss of US Manufacturing Jobs

This study examines the role of international trade and specifically imports from low‐wage countries, in determining patterns of job loss in U.S. manufacturing industries between 1992 and 2007. Motivated by intuitions from factor‐proportions‐inspired work on offshoring and heterogeneous firms in trade, we build industry‐level measures of import competition. Combining worker data from the Longitudinal Employer‐Household Dynamics data set, detailed establishment information from the Census of Manufactures and transaction‐level trade data, we find that rising import competition from China and other developing economies increases the likelihood of job loss among manufacturing workers with less than a high school degree; it is not significantly related to job losses for workers with at least a college degree.     

Explaining the profitability of foreign banks in Shanghai

This paper uses survival analysis to examine the factors determining the time taken for branches of foreign banks in Shanghai, China to make a positive rate of return after entering that market. Particular attributes of banks including the parent bank's size, early entry and the number of branches the bank has in China are found to reduce time to profitability. Market conditions in Shanghai, captured by levels of foreign direct investment and Eurodollar interest rates, are also found to have significant effects. A number of managerial implications are drawn from the analysis in light of the greater access to the Chinese banking markets following China's accession to the WTO. To ensure long‐term profitability in Shanghai, the foreign bank needs to contain costs and risks in the new markets, formulate an effective market penetration strategy, identify appropriate customer target groups, attract businesses from firms of different countries, seek early entry and undertake more fee‐income generating businesses. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The ‘Neighbourhood Effect’: A multidisciplinary assessment of the case for farmer co-ordination in agri-environmental programmes

In this paper we present a multi-disciplinary analysis of the potential impacts of undertaking similar environmental actions on multiple farms in a small geographic area, using organic farming as a proxy for a co-ordinated approach. Recent papers have called for more co-ordinated efforts between farmers in terms of their environmental actions, but there has been limited applied research demonstrating the environmental benefits or the economic and social implications to farmers of this approach. Comparative analysis of biodiversity, soil and water, and farm profitability were undertaken in England on 32 matched farms in areas of low and high organic farming concentration; qualitative interviews were also conducted with 48 farmers living in two of the eight areas. Findings demonstrate higher overall levels of biodiversity on organic farms (particularly in “hotspot” areas) but this was not universal across the species groups investigated. Higher water infiltration rates were found in organic grasslands, which could prove to be a useful measure to combat flooding. In terms of the technical efficiency of producing these environmental gains, conventional and organic farms in hotspot areas demonstrated equivalent efficiency from a financial perspective. Socio-cultural research identified the different amounts of trust farmers have in their neighbours, based in part on their performance as ‘good farmers’. We discuss the neighbourhood effect with a multi-disciplinary approach and conclude that encouraging local farmer co-ordination can have clear environmental benefits without high economic cost, but must be undertaken with caution - specifically regarding the trade-offs between benefits, local geophysical and social characteristics, and assumptions made about inter-farmer trust.