Portfolio Capital Flows: Hot or Cold?

A distinction is often made between short-term and long-termcapital flows: the former are deemed unstable hot money andthe latter are deemed stable cold money. Using time-series analysisof balance of payments data for five industrial and five developingcountries, we find that in most cases the labels "short-term"and "long-term" do not provide any information about the time-seriesproperties of the flow. In particular, long-term flows are oftenas volatile as short-term flows, and the time it takes for anunexpected shock to a flow to die out is similar across flows.long-term flows are also at least as unpredictable as short-termflows, and knowledge of the type of flow does not improve theability to forecast the aggregate capital account.     

From elite capture to marginalization of the poorest: a new social exclusion in anti-poverty programmes in China

Based on a case study of state-directed aid resources in anti-poverty programmes, we detected a new phenomenon of social exclusion in China. In a period of several years, a shift is observed from elite capture to marginalization of the poorest. This phenomenon occurs under the administrative pressure from the authoritarian state and the morbid democratic mechanism. Contemporary structural changes in economic and social culture also make it difficult for marginal people to escape from this predicament. From a social structural transformation point of view, we suggest that the marginalization of the poorest should be seriously taken into consideration in rural development programmes and policies.     

How much does household collateral constrain regional risk sharing?

We construct a new data set of consumption and income data for the largest US metropolitan areas, and we show that the extent of risk-sharing between regions varies substantially over time. In times when US housing collateral is scarce nationally, regional consumption is about twice as sensitive to income shocks. We also document higher sensitivity in regions with lower housing collateral. Household-level borrowing frictions can explain this new stylized fact. When the value of housing relative to human wealth falls, loan collateral shrinks, borrowing (risk-sharing) declines, and the sensitivity of consumption to income increases. Our model aggregates heterogeneous, borrowing-constrained households into regions characterized by a common housing market. The resulting regional consumption patterns quantitatively match those in the data.     

Wrapped input selection using multilayer perceptrons for repeat‐purchase modeling in direct marketing

In this paper, we try to validate existing theory on and develop additional insight into repeat‐purchase behavior in a direct marketing setting by means of an illuminating case study. The case involves the detection and qualification of the most relevant RFM (Recency, Frequency and Monetary) variables, using a neural network wrapper as our input pruning method. Results indicate that elimination of redundant and/or irrelevant inputs by means of the discussed input selection method allows us to significantly reduce model complexity without degrading the predictive generalization ability. It is precisely this issue that will enable us to infer some interesting marketing conclusions concerning the relative importance of the RFM predictor categories and their operationalizations. The empirical findings highlight the importance of a combined use of RFM variables in predicting repeat‐purchase behavior. However, the study also reveals the dominant role of the frequency category. Results indicate that a model including only frequency variables still yields satisfactory classification accuracy compared to the optimally reduced model. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

ALTERNATIVE FORMS OF EXTERNAL FINANCE: A SURVEY

For many developing countries, alternative forms of externalfinance—all forms of finance that are not guaranteed byor mediated through the public sector—have become increasinglyimportant as traditional financing to the public sector hasebbed. Yet a survey of the literature reveals few recent analyticalinsights about alternative financing, which includes foreigndirect investment, project lending, portfolio investment, closed-endequity funds, private nonguaranteed debt, licensing, joint ventures,quasi-equity contracts, and other forms of private, nonrecourselending to private borrowers. The literature offers little solidguidance for distinguishing between alternative and traditionalfinancing with respect to country risk, for establishing themost appropriate and efficient incentive structures and restrictionsin the host country, or for identifying the optimal financingmodes for international firms investing in developing countries.This gap in the analytical literature has important implicationsfor policy formulation. It is not always clear whether a countryis developing incentives and establishing safeguards (for ensuringadherence to project performance requirements) that are mosteffective in attracting alternative forms of finance.      

Student Access to Apprenticeships: Evidence from a Vignette Experiment

We identify the causal effects of student characteristics on the likelihood of being hired for an apprenticeship and explore the mechanisms underlying the employer’s decision. To this end, we perform a vignette experiment among human resources professionals in Belgium, focusing on less-qualified youth. Our results indicate that students with favorable educational records and students revealing being motivated are more likely to obtain an apprenticeship. Furthermore, we find that these characteristics are used by human resources professionals as signals of trainability, employability, and quit intentions.