A Pricing and Hedging Comparison of Parametric and Nonparametric Approaches for American Index Options

This article investigates the extent to which options on theAustralian Stock Price Index can be explained by parametricand nonparametric option pricing techniques. In particular,comparisons are made of out-of-sample option pricing performanceand hedging performance. The dataset differs from many of thoseused previously in the empirical options pricing literaturein that it consists of American options. In addition, a broaderspectrum of techniques are considered: a spline-based nonparametrictechnique is considered in addition to the standard kernel techniques,while the performance of a Heston stochastic volatility modelis also considered. Although some evidence is found of superiorperformance by nonparametric techniques for in-sample pricing,the parametric methods exhibit a markedly better ability toexplain future prices and show superior hedging performance.     

What motivates a subprime borrower to default?

This paper uses a real options approach to analyse the exercise of the default option embedded in mortgages. In particular, it examines a subprime household who borrows at a premium, but hopes to refinance at prime rates if their house appreciates. We show how these optimal default decisions can be used to calculate probabilities of default – an important input for risk management and pricing purposes. Numerical examples are provided, calibrated to US data. In a low interest rate environment, the credit-upgrade potential may discourage subprime borrowers from defaulting. However, default probabilities are highly sensitive to changes in interest rates and house prices. This provides a rational explanation for the prevalence of adjustable rate mortgages among subprime borrowers, and the subsequent large numbers of defaults, when interest rates rose and house prices declined.     

Scoring an Own Goal? Ethical issues in the UK professional soccer business

It is only in recent years that soccer has become big business, and the ethical strains are beginning to show. What is the “product” and where do fans figure in the list of “stakeholders”? The writer is completing his MBA at London Business School, and is a lifelong football fan.     

The Valuation of Equity Futures on the Tokyo Stock Exchange: 1920–1923

The futures price of an asset should depend on the spot price of that asset, the interest rate, cash flows during the contract term, the convenience yield, and storage costs. Despite many tests of the spot–future relation for commodities in historical periods, there have been no tests of this historical relation for equities. We price single‐stock equity futures on the Tokyo Stock Exchange between 1920 and 1923 and find that mispricing is considerably worse than in contemporary U.S. markets, after adjusting for (unavoidable) asynchronous data issues. The main cause of the mispricing is short‐sales constraints, rather than investor naivety. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark     

Local search and the evolution of technological capabilities

The assumption that ‘local search’ constrains the direction of corporate R&D is central in evolutionary perspectives on technological change and competition. In this paper, we propose a network-analytic approach for identifying the evolution of firms' technological positions. The approach (1) permits graphical and quantitative assessments of the extent to which firms' search behavior is locally bounded, and (2) enables firms to be positioned and grouped according to the similarities in their innovative capabilities. The utility of the proposed framework is demonstrated by an analysis of strategic partnering and the evolution of the technological positions of the 10 largest Japanese semiconductor producers from 1982 to 1992.     

Fixed Come Hell or High Water? Selection and Prepayment of Fixed‐Rate Mortgages Outside the United States

We examine the decision to prepay a fixed‐rate mortgage in the United Kingdom, Canada, Ireland, Australia and New Zealand. These countries are characterized by having substantial fees which are associated with breaking a fixed‐rate mortgage. We develop a model which allows for fluctuations both in banks’ wholesale rates and credit spreads. We find that households can achieve economically significant benefits both from following an optimal prepayment strategy contingent on the break fee used by their bank and also by selection of fixed interest rate term and (where available) break fee structure.     

The cost of elections: the effects of public sector austerity on electoral integrity and voter engagement

Concerns have been raised that insufficient funding has been affecting the delivery of elections in many countries. This paper presents a case study of England and Wales from 2010–2016. It demonstrates that many local authorities saw major real terms cuts and were increasingly over-budget. Those subject to cuts were less likely to undertake public engagement activities. State efforts to encourage voter participation may therefore be a casualty of austerity.     

New development: The paradox of outcomes—the more we measure,the less we understand

The use of ‘outcomes’ as a concept to measure the effectiveness of social policy interventions is inherently flawed and creates unwelcome paradoxes. This article explains why, instead of improving the lives of those who receive support, a focus on outcome information distorts both the priorities and practice of organizations who deliver such support, resulting in poorer results for those most in need. It provides an important first stage towards the evolution of new ways of conceptualizing ways to create improvements in social policy delivery.