Future changes in activity structures of the globe under a receding Arctic ice scenario

Geospatial maps are here used for interpreting of what a scenario with a warming Arctic with less ice will mean for activity structures of the globe in the future. This will enable certain locations in the High North to become important activity areas. Of most consequence are the fundamental activity structures of Earth, like global shipping, world trade and oil extraction. These will be impacted as the Arctic sea routes have opened, opening up shorter shipping distances between the N-Pacific and N-Atlantic Oceans. The reduction of ice in the Arctic Ocean will also lead to ever improved access to the resources of Arctic ocean-floor and the Arctic Region—perhaps most importantly to oil and gas.The conclusions also indicate that some central regions of the globe may loose relatively, for instance in terms of global shipping. Oil-rich central areas—like the Persian Gulf area—will face losses in activity as their oil starts to dwindle. Arctic oil is now about 10% of the world production. The rate of Arctic ice reduction will influence the rate of growth in Arctic resource extraction and it will likely occur later this century. The activity and importance of the Arctic will thus grow relatively.     

Megapatterns of global settlement: Typology and drivers in a warming world

Changes in settlement structures of the world can be described as megapatterns that represent dynamic spatial trends. This paper defines and describes three types of such megapatterns that will be of major influence in shaping global settlement and activity structures in the future, given a warming climate: (1) megapatterns driven by global warming; (2) megapatterns driven by improved technology and resources, and (3) megapatterns driven by important spatial positions. The megapatterns are ordered into a typology and their individual and collective impacts are described.The major findings of this paper are: because of global warming many of the central areas of the globe will experience heat, water and pollution problems that will induce people and activities to be moved to cooler, wetter areas. As high, cool terrains, as well as the virgin Sub-Polar Regions—mostly located in Siberia, Northern Canada, Northern Scandinavia, Greenland, Alaska, Southern Argentina, and Southern Chile—start to get warmer, it will become possible to relocate water-craving industries, like agriculture and resource extraction. This will not necessarily lead to a large population shift, since relatively few workers are needed for most such operations.