On the quest for supply chain transparency through Blockchain: Lessons learned from two serialized data projects

The ability to look into the supply chain has long enticed SCM scholars and practitioners. The possibilities created by such visibility are endless—from risk reduction and continuity planning to inventory management and cost reduction, nothing is off the table when end‐to‐end visibility is a possibility. Because of such enticements, there is usually much buzz in the industry every time a new technology that promises visibility and transparency is brought forward. Yet, years later, stories sometimes emerge that said technologies either failed to deliver or were not everything they were made out to be. Blockchain is yet another emerging technology in this space. Some consultants promise that it will be the final answer to the transparency and visibility woes that companies currently face. Yet, there is little empirical investigation regarding how the technology may benefit adopters, what the bottlenecks may be, and to what extent it may be able to deliver on these promises, without massive system‐wide upgrades of extant hardware and computing prowess. The current study takes a step in this direction by investigating a blockchain‐driven proof of concept across an industry consortium to identify promises, possibilities, and challenges of blockchain.     

OPTIMAL FORECAST COMBINATION UNDER REGIME SWITCHING*

This article proposes a new forecast combination method that lets the combination weights be driven by regime switching in a latent state variable. An empirical application that combines forecasts from survey data and time series models finds that the proposed regime switching combination scheme performs well for a variety of macroeconomic variables. Monte Carlo simulations shed light on the type of data‐generating processes for which the proposed combination method can be expected to perform better than a range of alternative combination schemes. Finally, we show how time variations in the combination weights arise when the target variable and the predictors share a common factor structure driven by a hidden Markov process.     

Detecting alcohol abuse: the value of carbohydrate deficient transferrin

The author, an advocate of CDT testing for insurance applicants, senses considerable uncertainty among medical directors concerning the value of the test. This review of CDT literature and the history of CDT testing in insurance laboratories is an attempt to mitigate that confusion. Two principle problems are identified: 1) the expected sensitivity of the CDT test in insurance applicants will be 50% at most, usually considerably less. 2) adapting CDT testing to commercial laboratories has been, and still is, an unsolved problem for there remains an important disparity between the method used at Clinical Reference Laboratories and LabOne. Other important issues are also reviewed: gender differences, ethnicity, LFT's and CDT, and technical facts.     

Applying Burke’s Dramatic Pentad to scenarios

Describing the evolution of possible futures in the narrative form is widely practised. However, while stories are intuitively recognized, the ability to compose a comprehensible story is often difficult. Ambiguities or inconsistencies within a scenario-as-story are not simply aesthetic faults, but are failings which can weaken the use of the technique in a learning or decision-making process. This paper provides a working understanding of narrative as a particular kind of knowledge and proposes an adaptation of Kenneth Burke’s Dramatic Pentad as a way to explicitly capture this kind of knowledge within a scenario construction process.     

Educating limited resource older adults for better choices to lower risk of food insecurity

United States (U.S.) national and North Carolina state data on older adult food insecurity in combination with associated poor nutrition‐related health outcomes point to a critical need for interventions to improve their food security. Nearly 8% of North Carolinians aged 60 and older and 11% of those aged 50–59 are food insecure, placing North Carolina in the top ten states in the U.S. for food insecurity for both age groups. Therefore, the Better Choices intervention was designed to educate limited‐income older adults in ways to manage their meager resources to purchase more and healthier foods. The purpose of this study was to determine the effectiveness of the Better Choices intervention in improving the knowledge, attitude, and behavior of participants concerning their food money resource management. Older adults (n = 453) with ages ranging from 59 to over 90 years participated in 8 weeks of educational programming delivered by educators in 15 participating North Carolina counties. In a cross‐over program design participating counties were randomly assigned to two groups, to create a control for the food money resource management treatment. A three‐points‐in‐time survey supported longitudinal measurement. Independent samples t‐tests showed no significant differences between groups at baseline. Paired sample t‐test results show the intervention was effective with statistically significant improvement of participants' knowledge regarding preparing a healthy meal on a budget, beans as a low‐cost alternative to meat, and the use of unit pricing to compare products to identify the best value. Participant‐developed action plans reflected planned behavior change. Study results show this group of older adults were capable of and willing to adopt new behaviors for a healthier lifestyle. While not a representative sample, the broad applicability of adult learning and planned behavior theories underpinning the program lead us to conclude that the methods and theories applied in this intervention should be of use to educators and practitioners serving limited‐resource older adult populations.     

Price determinants of bred heifers: Do reputations matter?

Replacement brood cows are among the most significant investments for cow-calf operations, thus crucial to profitability. Many cow-calf producers find it cost effective to purchase replacements from a reliable replacement heifer seller, though by doing so they increase risk of reproductive inefficiency due to unknown characteristics of the heifers. When important information about a product is missing to buyers, a seller can build a reputation over time that acts as signal for quality. Previous work has explored reputation effects in feeder cattle markets, but to our knowledge we are the first to explore reputation effects in bred replacement cattle markets. Using data from an annual replacement heifer sale, we analyze the values of heifer characteristics and test for premiums from reputation development. After controlling for reproductive practices, breed, and other characteristics, we find reputation does not play the role that Shapiro theorized. In this sale, the lot order is strategically chosen and may indicate bred heifer quality to buyers, replacing the need for reputation as a signal. This study highlights the importance of quality signals and regional preferences in bred replacement cattle marketing and lays the empirical groundwork for future studies to test Shapiro's theory.     

Examining bank SEOs: Are offers made by undercapitalized banks different?

Despite extensive monitoring, banking operations are often considered opaque, and despite explicit capital adequacy regulation, banks may have substantial discretion in their financing. Both monitoring and capital regulation have changed substantially over time, with the adoption of FDICIA being one important breakpoint. This article empirically studies seasoned equity offerings (SEOs) by banks to understand how opacity and capital regulation interact to determine the timing of bank SEOs and their market valuation. SEOs both by banks that are undercapitalized relative to regulatory standards and also well-capitalized banks are fully discretionary when it comes to SEOs, even before FDICIA. Both undercapitalized and well-capitalized banks experience similar and significantly negative stock price reactions to SEO announcements, and also have similar prior patterns of insider trading and similar economic drivers of the issuance decision. Moreover, post-SEO abnormal stock returns are similar to benchmark returns for both types of issuers in the long run, suggesting that, contrary to the well-documented evidence for industrial SEOs, investors understand the value implications of bank SEOs upon announcement. The evidence implies that undercapitalized banks' SEOs are more discretionary and that all bank SEOs are less opaque than implied by earlier studies.