THEORIES OF CHOICE UNDER IGNORANCE AND UNCERTAINTY

Abstract. In this paper, Knight's distinction between risk and uncertainty, and its significance for economic analysis are examined. The paper consists of a survey of some recent developments on the theory of choice under uncertainty and some applications of these theories to problems for which Bayesian Decision Theory has not proved entirely satisfactory. Two problems are examined in detail. The first is that of finance and insurance and the second is that of risktaking behaviour with special emphasis on lotteries.     

Sickness Presenteeism, Sickness Absenteeism, and Health Following Restructuring in a Public Service Organization

abstract    This study examined the relationship between sickness presenteeism, sickness absenteeism, organizational outcomes and employee health. In particular, we wanted to investigate to what degree employees were substituting sickness presence for sickness absence. Three hypotheses were tested to formalize this 'substitution proposition'. We surveyed a Canadian public service organization which was involved in a large scale downsizing initiative. For this study, 237 Personnel Corporation (pseudonym used) employees responded to the survey, representing a 66 per cent response rate. Survey results indicated that, while the workforce was of average health, sickness absenteeism was less than half that of the national average. The difference could be accounted for by sickness presenteeism – the average number of days employees attended work while ill or injured was greater than the number of days of sickness absence. The pattern of results supported the notion that employees were substituting presenteeism for absenteeism. The frequency and type of self-reported health problems were highly similar for presenteeism and absenteeism. Work factors (e.g. job security, supervisor support and job satisfaction) tested were significantly correlated with presenteeism. Presenteeism appears to be a stronger predictor of health than absenteeism, suggesting that efforts to improve workplace health may have a more immediate impact on presenteeism than on absenteeism.     

The behavioural intentions of specialty coffee consumers in South Africa

More than 1.6 billion cups of coffee are consumed worldwide on a daily basis. South Africa is rapidly adapting to worldwide trends with speciality coffee consumption on the rise, with South Africa recently having been recognised as a key player in the speciality coffee industry. Emerging market trends in speciality coffee consumption have resulted in a number of changes in consumption patterns, preferences and consumer behaviour. The purpose of this study was to determine the behavioural intention of speciality coffee consumers in South Africa, using the Theory of Planned Behaviour. The data were gathered from a non‐probability sample of 327 respondents, who were selected through a self‐completion online questionnaire. The results indicate that males consume more speciality coffee than females. The majority of respondents consume speciality coffee more than once a day, and foam cappuccinos are consumed most regularly. The results of the stepwise multiple regression analysis demonstrate the utility of the Theory of Planned Behaviour as a conceptual framework for predicting the behavioural intention of speciality coffee consumers. The findings indicate that attitude, subjective norms and perceived behavioural control are important predictors of behavioural intention. Furthermore, perceived behavioural control is the most important factor influencing speciality coffee consumption, and the most influential of the direct measures of the Theory of Planned Behaviour. With the current rise in speciality coffee consumption among South Africans, the Theory of Planned Behaviour framework contributes to understanding those factors which influence regular speciality coffee consumption. It is recommended that marketers and practitioners adapt their offerings to appeal to the specific needs of the growing speciality coffee market in South Africa.     

Takeovers and cooperatives: governance and stability in non-corporate firms

If consumers wholly or partially control a firm with market power they will charge less than the profit maximizing price. Starting at the usual monopoly price, a small price reduction will have a second order effect on profits but a first order effect on consumer surplus. Despite this desirable static result, it has been argued that cooperatives are vulnerable to take-over by outsiders who will run them as for-profit businesses. This paper studies takeovers of cooperatives. We argue that there will not be excessive takeovers of cooperatives due to the Grossman-Hart problem of free riding during takeovers.     

Corporate strategy and capital structure

The basic thesis of this exploratory investigation was that a corporate strategy perspective may complement the traditional financial paradigm in explaining capital structure in large U.S. corporations. Earlier fusion of strategic and financial literature led to a series of propositions antecedent to this work. Inclusion of Rumelt's diversification categories plus elsewhere validated financial contextual variables led to hypotheses for the present study. Results suggest a managerial choice perspective may help to explain the capital structure choice at the firm level of analysis.     

Buyer-supplier relational characteristics and joint decision making

This paper explores propositions dealing with the influence of buyer-supplier relational characteristics on their joint decision making. Specifically, the proposed conceptual framework focuses on the link between three relational constructs (trust, commitment, relationship maturity) and two types of joint decision making (strategic and tactical). Strategic decisions are those that “expand the pie” for both parties (integrative decisions), and tactical decisions are those that “divide the pie” between the two parties (distributive decisions). We propose that the effect of relational characteristics on joint decision making is likely to be moderated by the characteristics of the supplier organization (such as team orientation) and its environment (such as competitive intensity). We conclude with a brief discussion of the implications and possible extensions of the theoretical model.     

OPTIMISM AND PESSIMISM IN GAMES

This article considers the impact of ambiguity in strategic situations. It extends the existing literature on games with ambiguity‐averse players by allowing for optimistic responses to ambiguity. We use the CEU model of ambiguity with a class of capacities introduced by Jaffrray and Philippe (Mathematics of Operations Research 22 (1997), 165–85), which allows us to distinguish ambiguity from ambiguity‐attitude, and propose a new solution concept, equilibrium under ambiguity (EUA), for players who may be characterized by ambiguity‐preference. Applying EUA, we study comparative statics of changes in ambiguity‐attitude in games with strategic complements. This extends work in Eichberger and Kelsey (Journal of Economic Theory 106 (2002), 436–66) on the effects of increasing ambiguity if players are ambiguity averse.