Improved Accountability Disclosures by Canadian Universities*

Canadian university disclosures have been tracked from 1988 to 2000 using the modified accountability disclosure (MAD) index developed by Coy, Dixon, and Tower (1993) and Coy, Tower, and Dixon (1993) in their study of New Zealand universities. During the first eight years of the period under investigation, there was very little change in accountability disclosures. However, for the periods ending in 1997 through 2000, there has been a statistically significant annual improvement. This paper examines the reasons for these changes as indicated in the interviews with the presidents, or their designates, of Canadian universities. Factors include increased fund raising by the universities and pressures by the public and governments for universities to become more accountable, while a change in accounting pronouncements appears to have had little effect.     

Canadian Public-Private Sector Earnings Differentials, 1970–1980

This paper examines changes in the public-private sector wage gap in Canada between 1970 and 1980. The results show that the gross earnings advantage of both male and female government employees rose over the decade. For men, the increase was largely attributable to improved wage-determining characteristics, especially education, experience, and occupational distribution. For women, the increase occurred mainly because of a rise in economic rents in the form of a constant wage premium.     

The Incremental Informativeness of Stock Prices for Future Accounting Earnings*

This study extends previous research that documents a stock price reaction leading accounting earnings. The primary issue is that prior studies use a naive earnings expectation model (random walk) as the benchmark for the information content of lagged returns and do not adequately address the “incremental” information content of lagged returns. This study identifies and estimates firm-specific models of earnings to control directly for the autocorrelation in earnings. The explanatory power of lagged prices with respect to this earnings residual is investigated using both a multiple regression model of lagged returns and a multiple time-series vector autoregressive model. In-sample estimation of the models provides clear evidence that stock prices impound information about future earnings incremental to the information contained in historical earnings data. Holdout period analysis of the earnings forecasts from these lagged return models finds that both models outperform the naive seasonal random walk expectation, but neither model outperforms the more sophisticated Box-Jenkins forecasts. On an individual firm basis, earnings forecasts supplemented with the lagged return data tend to be less precise than the Box-Jenkins forecasts, but the price-based models demonstrate an ability to rank the earnings forecast errors from the time-series models. The analysis helps to characterize the limitations of lagged returns as a means of predicting future earnings innovations.     

The Swing Voter's Curse in the Laboratory

This paper reports the first laboratory study of the swing voter's curse and provides insights on the larger theoretical and empirical literature on "pivotal voter" models. Our experiment controls for different information levels of voters, as well as the size of the electorate, the distribution of preferences and other theoretically relevant parameters. The design varies the share of partisan voters and the prior belief about a payoff relevant state of the world. Our results support the equilibrium predictions of the Feddersen–Pesendorfer model. The voters act as if they are aware of the swing voter's curse and adjust their behaviour to compensate. While the compensation is not complete and there is some heterogeneity in individual behaviour, we find that aggregate outcomes, such as efficiency, turnout and margin of victory, closely track the theoretical predictions.