A Multiple and Partial Wavelet Analysis of the Oil Price,Inflation, Exchange Rate,and Economic Growth Nexus in Saudi Arabia

This article provides a fresh insight into the dynamic nexus between oil prices, the Saudi/US dollar exchange rate, inflation, and output growth rate in Saudi Arabia’ economy, using novel Morlet’ wavelet methods. Specifically, it implements various tools of methodology: the continuous wavelet power spectrum, the cross-wavelet power spectrum, the wavelet coherency, the multiple and the partial wavelet coherence to the annual sample period 1969–2014. Our results unveil that the relationships among the variables evolve through time and frequency. From the time-domain view, we show strong but non-homogenous linkages between the four variables. From the frequency-domain view, we uncover significant wavelet coherences and strong lead-lag relationships. From an economic view, the wavelet analysis shows that Saudi economy is still exposed to several global risk factors, which are mainly related to the oil market volatility, and the pegging of the local currency to the US dollar. Such risk factors strongly and negatively affect the real economic growth, exert more pressure on inflation, and substantially limit the freedom to pursue an independent monetary policy.     

Testing PPP hypothesis under temporary structural breaks and asymmetric dynamic adjustments

ABSTRACT

We test the empirical validity of the PPP proposition under temporary structural breaks and dynamic nonlinear adjustments. Although several testing procedures have recently been proposed in the existing literature to investigate stochastic properties of the series under gradual breaks and nonlinear adjustments, none of these tests are compatible with the PPP proposition. Therefore, we propose new testing procedures that restrict the break to be temporary while simultaneously allowing for asymmetric dynamic nonlinear adjustment towards equilibrium. Using these newly proposed tests, we test stationarity of real exchange rate of 24 OECD countries vis-à-vis USA, and find support in favour of PPP proposition in majority of the countries.     

Threat of termination and firm innovation

This study investigates how the ex-ante threat of termination affects firm performance in innovation measured by number of patents and citations. Empirical results show that the threat of termination is negatively associated with both measures of firm innovation. This relation however is sensitive to industry structure. The negative effect of the threat of termination on innovation is statistically significant only for high-tech firms. For low-tech firms there is no statistically significant relation between the threat of termination and firm innovation. One plausible explanation is that high-tech firms are inherently risky and have higher rates of project failure. Adding the risk of higher threat of termination makes the manager more risk averse and forces her to avoid investing in value increasing innovations. Managers in low-tech firms don’t face such pressures. The policy implication is that high-tech firms should lower threat of termination and increase tolerance for project failure to encourage innovation.     

Foreign direct investment, trade openness and economic growth in pakistan and turkey: an investigation using bounds test

In the literature empirical evidences regarding export-led growth (ELG), FDI-led exports, and growth-driven exports (GDE) hypotheses have been mixed and inconclusive. This paper uses the autoregressive distributed lags (ARDL) model (Pesaran and Shin, Econometrics and Economic Theory in the 20th Century: The Ragnar Frisch Centennial Symposium, 1990) and tests the existence of long run equilibrium relationship between the determinants of growth during the period 1975?C2004 for Pakistan and Turkey. The results indicate that in the short run there is bi-directional causal relationship between trade openness and exports for Pakistan and FDI and exports relationship for Turkey. The long run relationship results support the growth-driven exports hypothesis for Turkey and openness-growth nexus in Pakistan.     

Pakistan tourism industry and challenges: a review

Travel and tourism has great association with other industries in the national economy making major indirect earns and also enhances foreign investment, opportunities of trade, investments in private, local development, and public infrastructure. Pakistan has rich potential of tourism due to its rich culture, geographical and biological diversity, and history. Tourism has developed as an instrument for creating considerable economic gains. The country has various tourist destinations at Swat, Malam Jabba, Behrain, Kalam, Shangla, Balakot, Kaghan, Naran, Ayoubia, Murree, Chitral, Gilgit Baltistan, Hunza, and Neelam valleys, other mountainous ranges, and historical and archaeological sites. Pakistan has great potential and offers diverse opportunities for tourists, such as trout fishing in the glacial water of Gilgit Baltistan and Swat rivers, Shandur Polo traditional tournament, paragliding, rock climbing, and trekking in northern areas, Jeep and camel safari in the Cholistan desert, Wild Boar hunting, and crabbing in the Arabian Sea.     

Is energy consumption effective to spur economic growth in Pakistan? New evidence from bounds test to level relationships and Granger causality tests

The present study investigates the relationship between energy (renewable and nonrenewable) consumption and economic growth using Cobb–Douglas production function in case of Pakistan over the period of 1972–2011. We have used the ARDL bounds testing and Gregory and Hansen (1990) structural break cointegration approaches for long run while stationarity properties of the variables have been tested applying Clemente-Montanes-Reyes (1998) structural break unit root test.Our results confirm cointegration between renewable energy consumption, nonrenewable energy consumption, economic growth, capital and labor in case of Pakistan. The findings show that both renewable and nonrenewable energy consumption add in economic growth. Capital and labor are also important determinants of economic growth. The VECM Granger causality analysis validates the existence of feedback hypotheses between renewable energy consumption and economic growth, nonrenewable energy consumption and economic growth, economic growth and capital.     

Repricing and Executive Turnover

We examine whether the threat of executive turnover faced by a firm affects its decision to reprice stock options held by its executives. We estimate a model of voluntary turnover among top executives and show that the predicted turnover from this model is positively related to the probability of repricing. The relationship is robust to the inclusion of several known determinants of repricing. Our results are consistent with a model in which a tight labor market makes executives hard to replace, forcing firms to reprice stock options when they go underwater.     

Dynamics of Wheat Prices in the Wake of Market Reforms: The Case of Pakistan

Using Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedastic (ARCH) method, this paper examines the effects of market reforms on the distribution of real mean prices and their variability before and after reforms. It is found that market-oriented reforms benefited producers and consumers alike. Empirical evidences, generally, support theoretical assertion that mean prices decline in most urban areas and increase in those markets that are located in surplus producing areas. The results also showed that market reforms lead to more price volatility.     

Product rejuvenation strategies

If you had just kept it a little longer, that old suit would have come back into style and, with a few alterations, you could have worn it again. Likewise, most companies have quite a few abandoned products which might need only a few alterations to make them marketable again.     

The dynamics of financial development,globalisation, economic growth and life expectancy in sub‐Saharan Africa

The importance of life expectancy is recognised in the development economics literature because of its increasing effects on labour productivity and economic growth in long‐run. However, no published study to date empirically examines the nonlinear relationships between globalisation, financial development, economic growth and life expectancy in sub‐Saharan African (SSA) countries. Therefore, our study intends to fill this gap by using non‐parametric cointegration test and multivariate Granger causality test towards a non‐linear empirical understanding of the factors affecting the life expectancy. We consider the case of 16 sub‐Saharan African economies using annual data over the period 1970–2012. The empirical analysis indicates that financial development, globalisation and economic growth appear to have a positive impact upon life expectancy in sub‐Saharan African economies, except for Gabon and Togo. Our empirical findings may provide insightful policy implications towards improving population health conditions which are vital for promoting the productivity of labour force and long‐run economic growth in sub‐Saharan African countries. In light of these policy implications, governments should incorporate globalisation, financial development and economic growth as key economic instruments in formulating sustainable developmental policy to promote life expectancy for the people in sub‐Saharan African countries.