Do financial variables help predict the state of the business cycle in small open economies? Evidence from Switzerland

We analyze the forecasting ability of financial variables to predict the state of the Swiss business cycle up to eight quarters ahead. Overall, our results suggest that financial variables convey leading information for the prediction of business cycles, even when applied to a small open economy. However, we clearly find that model specifications need to be extended to include variables accounting for external shocks, such as exchange rates or international commodity prices. It also appears that the forecasting contribution of individual variables changes over time. Specifically, in the last two decades, stock market liquidity has replaced the term spread as the best single predictor.     

Insiemi invarianti globalmente attrattivi nell'interazione fra il “mercato dei beni” ed il “mercato della moneta”

Si studia il comportamento dinamico locale e globale di un modello macroeconomico che si rappresenta con un sistema nonlineare di due equazioni alle differenze (sistema dinamico discreto, o mappa). Si mostra come l'uso di un nuovo strumento di analisi, le linee critiche, consenta di studiare molte delle proprietà globali (quali i bacini di attrazione di insiemi invarianti) e delle biforcazioni globali, che si verificano in mappe del piano con inversa non unica. Si prova che il punto fisso localmente attrattivo è anche globalmente attrattivo, mentre in regimi di instabilità del punto fisso esistono curve chiuse, o altri insiemi invarianti (regolari o caotici) di attrazione, in aree assorbenti globalmente attrattive.

---

Summary The local and global dynamical behaviour of a macroeconomic model, represented by a nonlinear system of two difference equations (discrete dynamical system or map), is studied. It is shown how several properties (as basins of attraction of invariant sets) and global bifurcations occurring in two-dimensional maps with a non-unique inverse can be studied by use of a new analytical tool, the critical curves. It is proven that the locally attractive fixed point is globally attractive, while closed invariant curves or other attractive invariant sets (regular or chaotic) exist in globally attractive absorbing areas, when the fixed point is repulsive.

     

Nonlinear dynamics in economic modelling

Decisions in Economics and Finance -     

A piecewise linear model of credit traps and credit cycles: a complete characterization

We reconsider a regime-switching model of credit frictions which has been proposed in a general framework by Matsuyama for the case of Cobb–Douglas production functions. This results in a piecewise linear map with two discontinuity points and all three branches having the same slope. We offer a complete characterization of the bifurcation structure in the parameter space, as well as of the attracting sets and related basins of attraction in the phase space. We also discuss parameter regions associated with overshooting, leapfrogging, poverty traps, reversal of fortune and growth miracle, as well as cycles with any kind of switching between the expansionary and contractionary phases.     

Growth without normal capacity utilization

Within the demand-led approach to growth, the long-period tendencies of quantities cannot be effectively studied through theoretical positions entailing normal utilization of capacity. Whether in the form of constant or of average normal utilization, this assumption contradicts the supposed autonomy of aggregate demand. Analysis of the operation of the adjustment of capacity to demand suggests that potentially offsetting forces make fully adjusted positions irrelevant. As quantities cannot be assumed to gravitate towards such positions, the relations between quantity variables determined on the normal utilization hypothesis provide a poor guide to the analysis of reality.     

Risk management within the cannabis industry: Building a framework for the cannabis industry

Thirty states and the District of Columbia have legalized the use of cannabis for medicinal and/or recreational use by either formally or informally de‐criminalizing its use. However, cannabis remains a Schedule 1 drug under the Federal Controlled Substances Act (21 U.S.C. Sections 801 through 812), leaving federal law in conflict with the laws of over half of the states. As a result, market participants in legal cannabis businesses face risks due to the industry's unique legal status within the United States. We examine the risks and challenges deemed by the cannabis industry as the top risks facing the industry's continued future growth and its sustainability. In addition to general risks inherent in a nascent industry, a legal cannabis business faces additional risks, such as risks in its banking and finance activity, placement of insurance, payment of taxes, and managing its supply chain. These legal businesses also face true legal risk from the possibility of being shut down by the federal government and seizure of assets and product under the CSA. This paper also examines whether the cannabis industry would benefit from a futures market to mitigate price risk.     

One-dimensional maps with two discontinuity points and three linear branches: mathematical lessons for understanding the dynamics of financial markets

We develop a simple financial market model with heterogeneous interacting speculators. The dynamics of our model is driven by a one-dimensional discontinuous piecewise linear map, having two discontinuity points and three linear branches. On the one hand, we study this map analytically and numerically to advance our knowledge about such dynamical systems. In particular, not much is known about discontinuous maps involving three branches. On the other hand, we seek to improve our understanding of the functioning of financial markets. We find, for instance, that such maps can generate complex bull and bear market dynamics.     

Grundzüge einer Theorie der Reflation

Ohne ZusammenfassungAus dem Italienischen übersetzt von Alexander Gerschenkron, Wien