An integrated fuzzy mathematical model and principal component analysis algorithm for forecasting uncertain trends of electricity consumption

This paper introduces an integrated algorithm for forecasting electricity consumption (EL) based on fuzzy regression, time series and principal component analysis (PCA) in uncertain markets such as Iran. The algorithm is examined by mean absolute percentage error, analysis of variance (ANOVA) and Duncan Multiple Range Test. PCA is used to identify the input variables for the fuzzy regression and time series models. Monthly EL in Iran is used to show the superiority of the algorithm. Moreover, it is shown that the selected fuzzy regression model has better estimated values for total EL than time series. The algorithm provides as good results as intelligent methods. However, it is shown that the algorithm does not require utilization of preprocessing methods but genetic algorithm, artificial neural network and fuzzy inference system require preprocessing which could be a cumbersome task to deal with ambiguous data. The unique features of the proposed algorithm are three fold. First, two type of fuzzy regressions with and without preprocessed data are prescribed by the algorithm in order to minimize the bias. Second, it uses PCA approach instead of trial and error method for selecting the most important input variables. Third, ANOVA is used to statistically compare fuzzy regression and time series with actual data.     

Estimation of trade elasticities in the presence of trade barriers, multinationals and imperfect competition

Recent research highlights the role that multinational trading companies may play in impeding price transmission. In markets characterised by imperfect competition, an estimate of the partial elasticity of demand may be of limited practical value if no account is taken of the reaction of competitors. In this paper, we demonstrate the potential for market structure to affect price transmission and trade elasticities, and challenge the presumption that only government intervention can impact upon price transmission, with examples supporting why theory would suggest otherwise.     

Demand under product differentiation: an empirical analysis of the US wine market*

Oversupply has led to a number of perplexities for the Australian wine industry in recent times. When disaggregated from the industry level, however, the problem can be better described as a range of attribute‐specific disequilibria. To date, the solutions to this problem have predominantly revolved around supply‐side policies of reducing output through crop thinning or vine pulling. By contrast, this paper focuses on the demand side and argues that the disequilibria may be reduced by gaining a better understanding of the demand for Australian wine. A discrete choice model of product differentiation is used to estimate the demand for wine in Australia's second largest export market, the United States. Implications of the analysis are explored.     

Fading attraction: Turkey's shifting relationship with the European Union

In this paper, we examine Turkey's changing economic relations with the European Union (EU) and the rest of the world during the past few decades. We argue that a combination of the EU's reluctance to accept Turkey as a member, internal economic and political developments, and the rise of economic and political opportunities elsewhere have shifted the country to diversify its economic relations around the world and reduced its reliance on the ties with Europe. This shift, which had started long before the 2008 global financial crisis and accelerated in its aftermath, seems to have helped Turkey weather relatively well the recent economic storms in Europe.     

Can Corporate Divestiture Activities Lead to Better Corporate Social Performance?

Journal of Business Ethics - Prior research showed that corporate divestitures could help firms restore their strategic (versus financial) controls and long-term focus. This suggests that...     

Machine-Part Cell Formation Problem Using a Group Based League Championship Algorithm

This article proposes a new algorithm for grouping problems that is a grouping version of league championship algorithm (GLCA). We compare the performance of GLCA with several well-known algorithms published in the present literature and select a set of 20 most widely used benchmarks of cell formation sample problems posing as a grouping problem. We used a truncated geometric algorithm to find the number of initial cells. Our computations reveal that GLCA can reach the best-known solution for 17 of the 20 benchmark problems, and improve the solution of three others with a 1.4% average gap.     

Explaining trade policy in the Middle East and North Africa

This paper examines the evolution of trade policy in the Middle East and North Africa (MNA) countries since the 1960s. It shows that contrary to the current popular perception, until the 1980s MNA countries were generally more open than the rest of the developing world. That situation changed in the 1980s and especially the 1990s as most MNA countries maintained their trade policies, while many other developing countries proceeded with liberalization. The paper develops and estimates a political economy model of trade policy to search for the factors behind the initial relative openness of the region and its reversal. The results show that the pattern is related to the rise and decline of the region's resource rents, which affected the political weight of domestic producers versus consumers. Other factors are also considered, but they all seem to have secondary effects.     

Simulating economic values of a genetic improvement program for Australian farmed saltwater crocodiles*

In genetic improvement programs, candidates for breeders are ranked by the profitability of their offspring, expressed as a weighted sum of the genetic gain from selection. In this paper, we estimate the economic values of a genetic improvement program for Australian farmed saltwater crocodiles. A bioeconomic profit function for a representative breeding pair is used to determine the optimal slaughter age following genetic improvement in each selection objective. The results indicate that estimated farm profitability increases by nearly $A111 for a 1‐week reduction in juvenile slaughter age, $A78 for a 1 per cent increase in the proportion of first‐grade skins produced, and $A33 for an increase in the number of viable hatchlings per clutch. The implications of the analysis for the Australian crocodile industry and the limitations of the research are explored.