CAN INEFFICIENT TRADERS CREATE VALUE?

I examine the aggregate expected profit generated by informed traders of diverse ability in a competitive market. I assume that efficient traders get perfect information on asset values whereas inefficient traders get noisy information. In the presence of order size restrictions, I show that the aggregate expected profit generated by efficient and inefficient traders together can be higher than that generated by efficient traders alone. Thus, inefficient traders can create value in a constrained trading environment.     

Who Herds? Who Doesn't? Estimates of Analysts’ Herding Propensity in Forecasting Earnings

We develop parametric estimates of the imitation‐driven herding propensity of analysts and their earnings forecasts. By invoking rational expectations, we solve an explicit analyst optimization problem and estimate herding propensity using two measures: First, we estimate analysts’ posterior beliefs using actual earnings plus a realization drawn from a mean‐zero normal distribution. Second, we estimate herding propensity without seeding a random error, and allow for nonorthogonal information signals. In doing so, we avoid using the analyst's prior forecast as the proxy for his posterior beliefs, which is a traditional criticism in the literature. We find that more than 60 percent of analysts herd toward the prevailing consensus, and herding propensity is associated with various economic factors. We also validate our herding propensity measure by confirming its predictive power in explaining the cross‐sectional variation in analysts’ out‐of‐sample herding behavior and forecast accuracy. Finally, we find that forecasts adjusted for analysts’ herding propensity are less biased than the raw forecasts. This adjustment formula can help researchers and investors obtain better proxies for analysts’ unbiased earnings forecasts.     

Examining bank SEOs: Are offers made by undercapitalized banks different?

Despite extensive monitoring, banking operations are often considered opaque, and despite explicit capital adequacy regulation, banks may have substantial discretion in their financing. Both monitoring and capital regulation have changed substantially over time, with the adoption of FDICIA being one important breakpoint. This article empirically studies seasoned equity offerings (SEOs) by banks to understand how opacity and capital regulation interact to determine the timing of bank SEOs and their market valuation. SEOs both by banks that are undercapitalized relative to regulatory standards and also well-capitalized banks are fully discretionary when it comes to SEOs, even before FDICIA. Both undercapitalized and well-capitalized banks experience similar and significantly negative stock price reactions to SEO announcements, and also have similar prior patterns of insider trading and similar economic drivers of the issuance decision. Moreover, post-SEO abnormal stock returns are similar to benchmark returns for both types of issuers in the long run, suggesting that, contrary to the well-documented evidence for industrial SEOs, investors understand the value implications of bank SEOs upon announcement. The evidence implies that undercapitalized banks' SEOs are more discretionary and that all bank SEOs are less opaque than implied by earlier studies.     

Supplier Selection Practices among Small Firms in the United States: Testing Three Models

One of the issues investigated in recent studies on small business enterprises involves the role of supply chain management. Supply chain management has become an important part of strategic planning in both large and small businesses in the 1990s as firms increasingly choose outsourcingas an externally-driven strategic growth path. This study examines the supplier selection practices among 78 small business executives in the midwest United States by testing three models: rational/normative, external control, and strategic choice. Although the results show support for all three models, the rational/normative model emerges as the most significant model for predicting the supplier selection practices of small firms.     

Predicting credit spreads

Predictions of firm-level credit spreads based on the current spot and forward credit spreads can be significantly improved upon by using the information contained in the shape of the credit-spread curve. However, the current credit-spread curve is not a sufficient statistic for predicting future out-of-sample credit spreads; predictions can be significantly improved upon by exploiting the information contained in the shape of the riskless yield curve. In the presence of credit-spread and riskless factors, other macroeconomic, marketwide, and firm-specific risk variables do not significantly improve predictions of credit spreads. These results have important implications for credit-spreads modeling as well as for better understanding corporate capital structure and risk management policies.     

Occupational status,earnings, and fertility expectations: Development and estimation of a causal model

Summary This paper tests, within the framework of LISREL, the causal structures of occupational status, earnings, and fertility expectations using data from the 1984 Canadian Fertility Survey of currently married and common-law women aged 18–44. Differential occupational status, earnings, and fertility among three groups of wives classified by generation of Canadian residence are also examined. The models incorporate age, education, work experience, and ethnic/English language ability as exogenous determinants of occupational status, earnings, and fertility.The major findings are: (1) lower earnings of third generation wives are strongly related to lower levels of education, work experience, and job status; (2) wives who speak an ethnic language are likely to have lower fertility than comparable wives who do not speak an ethnic language; and (3) generational effects on earnings and fertility are limited to differences in education, work experience, and occupational status.The author is grateful to Dr. Karol J. Krotki, co-director of the Canadian Fertility Study, for permission to analyze the Canadian Fertility Survey data. Special thanks are also due to Ms. Margaret King for her comments on an earlier draft of the paper.