Bootstrap confidence intervals for total value in small area statistics

In small area statistics, many problems deal with the estimation of unknown parameters. This paper will consider interval estimation. Three bootstrap confidence intervals of the total value for the small area are proposed. They are obtained by the percentile method, the t-bootstrap method, and the two-stage t-bootstrap method in the case of application of the count post-stratification estimator for total value. The proposed procedures are illustrated with simulation examples in which the investigated variable has the normal or Poisson distribution in population strata. We do not have to know the population or small area distribution for determining the bootstrap confidence intervals for small area parameters. This is the great advantage of bootstrap methods.     

Economic transition and elections in Poland1

Poland's economic and political transition, one of the most successful, has depended very heavily on job creation in new firms to replace the jobs lost in the formerly state‐owned enterprises. This paper uses survey and aggregate data from three Polish elections to suggest that these de novo firms, the individuals they employ, and the residents in the local areas where they exist become an important constituency supporting pro‐reform political parties and constraining the actions of parties less sympathetic to the reforms. The creation of this political constituency helps explain how countries can successfully pursue both economic and political reforms. JEL classification: D72, P26.     

Window on Eastern Europe: Teaching Ethics in Gdańsk

Against the background of a new Ten Commandments for the Polish business community a new course in business ethics is now being offered to students in the Faculty of Management and Economy of the Technical University of Gdańsk, ul. G. Narutowicza 11/12, 80-952 Gdańsk, Poland. Dr Kinach-Brzozowska, who introduced the course last year, describes its content and her students'needs and reactions.     

A note on the estimation of total weight in chemical balance weighing designs

Summary This paper studies the problem of estimation of the total weight of objects using a chemical balance weighing design under the restriction |L−R| ≤a, whereL andR represent the number of objects placed on the left and right pans, respectively. A lower bound for the variance of the estimated total weight is given and a necessary and sufficient condition for this lower bound to be attained is obtained. Finally, weighing designs for which this lower bound is attainable are constructed.     

REFORMING HEALTH AND SOCIAL SERVICES IN POLAND - An overview

The transformations taking place in Poland aim, among others, at adapting the system to new conditions of a market economy. The irrationality of funding social services by the budget made it necessary to restrict the role played by the State in their funding. It means the need for changes concerning not only institutional reforms but also new sources of income. The goal of this paper is to present the main directions of reforms occurring in the Polish economy on the example of health care. The paper concentrates on the problems of implementation, the reform in health care, its reasons and consequences. The trends indicate that the process of reforms is going in the direction of developing new methods and forms of funding and reducing the share of budgetary funds in the funding of social services. The state responsible for the reforms makes an attempt to create appropriate legal and organizational conditions for the question of institutions providing social services.     

D-optimal chemical balance weighing designs with autoregressive errors

In this paper, we consider the estimation problem of individual weights of three objects. For the estimation we use the chemical balance weighing design and the criterion of D-optimality. We assume that the error terms ${\varepsilon_{i},\ i=1,2,\dots,n,}$ are a first-order autoregressive process. This assumption implies that the covariance matrix of errors depends on the known parameter ρ. We present the chemical balance weighing design matrix ${\widetilde{\bf X}}$ and we prove that this design is D-optimal in certain classes of designs for ${\rho\in[0,1)}$ and it is also D-optimal in the class of designs with the design matrix ${{\bf X} \in M_{n\times 3}(\pm 1)}$ for some ρ ≥ 0. We prove also the necessary and sufficient conditions under which the design is D-optimal in the class of designs ${M_{n\times 3}(\pm 1)}$ , if ${\rho\in[0,1/(n-2))}$ . We present also the matrix of the D-optimal factorial design with 3 two-level factors.     

Technology foresight for a vision of energy sector development in Poland till 2030. Delphi survey as an element of technology foresighting

The security of energy supply at national level is one of the most fundamental missions of every government. This task becomes especially vital in view of the current situation on global energy markets. The planning of technological development in the energy and fuel sectors is a relevant element of energy security strategies. This in turn leads to a more rational and efficient energy use in the future. Technology foresight, which emerged as a proven instrument of technology policy during the 1950s, becomes nowadays one of the essential tools for the creation of the future technological development worldwide. A project entitled: “The Scenarios of Technological Development of Fuel and Energy Sector for National Energy Security” was the first foresight project in the field of energy technologies and at the same time the first technology foresight activity in Poland. This project was being carried out in the period of 2006-2007 by a consortium of research and development institutes on the request of the Polish Ministry of Economy. The aim of the project was to indicate energy and fuel sector development directions in the time horizon up to 2030 and identify key energy technologies of strategic importance. As a result of the foresight activity, technology development scenarios in the energy and fuel sector in Poland as well as corresponding roadmaps for their implementation were formulated. The project results should be helpful in drafting national energy policies and they will indicate priority pathways of research and development (R&D) activities in the next years.The energy foresight project was based mainly on a Delphi method that is nowadays widely applied as a valuable foresight tool. This future-oriented intuitive method was engaged for the qualitative and quantitative assessment of probable developments in the future and for their time scale evaluation as well. In this article, the results of the conducted two-round Delphi survey were presented.