Reporting Discretion and Private Information Communication through Earnings

We model a two-period pure exchange economy where a risk averse manager, who has private information regarding future earnings, is required to issue an earnings report to investors at the end of each period. While the manager is prohibited from directly disclosing her private information, she is allowed to bias reported earnings in the first period, subject to GAAP rules that require that a specified proportion of the bias be reversed subsequently. We show there is a minimum threshold of reversal, such that, when the proportion of required reversal is above this threshold, the manager smooths income and communicates her private information through reported earnings. Consequently, the market attaches greater weight to reported earnings than under a regime that allows no discretion. When the required reversal is below the minimum threshold, the manager increases reported earnings without limit and the equilibrium degenerates. When the manager is not endowed with any private information, the market unravels the "true" earnings and price is unaffected by earnings management. Our results underscore the importance of both allowing and restricting reporting discretion through formal mechanisms.     

Polarization,Inequality, and Growth: The Indian Experience

One issue that has attracted considerable attention recently among scholars interested in inequality and conflict is polarization. We analyze polarization in India over roughly the past three decades using consumption expenditure data. We show that both bipolarization and multidimensional polarization (on several dimensions: rural–urban, state, region) have increased since the 1990s. In the case of bipolarization, this is a reversal from an earlier trend (in the 1980s). Overall, our results suggest that the high growth that India has witnessed since the 1990s has been associated with widening disparities. Comparing polarization and inequality trends, we find similarities, but also some differences; we also show how the study of polarization can provide different insights. Our results therefore underscore the importance of studying polarization as distinct from traditional inequality.     

An investigation into factors impacting financial exclusion at the bottom of the pyramid in South Africa

Financial exclusion has been shown to have negative socio-economic effects on citizens, especially at the bottom of the economic pyramid. South Africa suffers from high levels of financial exclusion, disproportionately at the bottom of the pyramid. This study investigates nine factors identified from the literature as being positively associated with financial exclusion using a logistic regression model. The findings show that the most significant factors associated with being financially excluded at the bottom of the pyramid in South Africa were educational level, primary source of income, age, home language and number of dependents. The study further found that gender, relationship status and home ownership were not associated with being financially excluded. An interesting finding was that living in a rural area as opposed to an urban area was not significantly associated with being excluded. The findings and their implications for expanding financial inclusion at the bottom of the pyramid are discussed.     

Information source usage among motive-based segments of travelers to newly emerging tourist destinations

As a part of their travel planning, potential tourists engage in information search that assists them in decision-making. Though several studies have been conducted in relation to information sources, yet, much of these seem to be in relation to relatively well-known destinations. This note primarily aims at reporting the use of information sources among various motivation-based segments of travelers to the newly emerging tourist destinations of India's North-East. This is a region with tremendous tourism potential that has not been aggressively marketed so far. Analysis of primary data through a survey of visitors to the region using a factor-cluster segmentation approach resulted in three motive-based segments: Nature-loving Explorers, Nature-loving Vacationers and Change Seekers. These segments were found to exhibit differences in information source usage. The results hold implications for destination marketers of the region and would hopefully contribute towards better marketing strategies for its various destinations.     

Reversal of fortune? The long-term effect of conservation-led displacement in Nepal

Building on a panel data-set using two rounds of self-administered surveys, this study assesses the long-term welfare effects of conservation-led displacement in Nepal. Empirical findings indicate that while displaced households suffered from poor land productivity and food insecurity in the first five years after displacement, they appear to be better off today, a decade since displacement, compared to non-displaced households. However, this has come at the expense of loosening social ties, increased strain on human capital and, most importantly, an overall deterioration in people’s socio-cultural wellbeing.     

‘Hybrid’ open source software virtual communities of practice – a conceptual framework

‘Hybrid’ open source software communities are conducive to knowledge integration and innovation, and can be seen through a community of practice lens. In this paper, we develop an integrated process theory of structural attributes and social mechanisms of hybrid virtual communities. We offer a dynamic view of knowledge integration and innovation in such communities. We also emphasise the multi-faceted nature of virtual communities and identify factors that regulate participation and sustain such communities. This has implications for theorising about knowledge integration and innovation in hybrid virtual settings. Finally, virtual ethnography and multi-level research are suggested for future research.     

Fat tails,VaR and subadditivity

Financial institutions rely heavily on Value-at-Risk (VaR) as a risk measure, even though it is not globally subadditive. First, we theoretically show that the VaR portfolio measure is subadditive in the relevant tail region if asset returns are multivariate regularly varying, thus allowing for dependent returns. Second, we note that VaR estimated from historical simulations may lead to violations of subadditivity. This upset of the theoretical VaR subadditivity in the tail arises because the coarseness of the empirical distribution can affect the apparent fatness of the tails. Finally, we document a dramatic reduction in the frequency of subadditivity violations, by using semi-parametric extreme value techniques for VaR estimation instead of historical simulations.     

A characterization of exponential distributions based on order statistics

This note contains a characterization of exponential distributions based on the properties of linear transformations of order statistics. This is a certain converse of a well known theorem of Rényi about the distribution of linear combinations of order statistics from exponential distributions. Some statistical applications of the result are indicated.     

Exchange market pressure in India

We empirically investigate episodes of currency market stress in India during the period January 1992–August 2014 with the help of a monthly EMP index for India constructed for this period. We analyse the distribution of the extreme values of the EMP index by using Extreme Value Theory (EVT) and utilize the knowledge of the extreme values of our EMP index to identify currency market stress in India during this period. We analyse these stress episodes in the context of the prevailing economic situation. We also present a decomposition of the contribution of different factors towards exchange market pressure.