How Significant Is Sub‐Saharan Africa's Demographic Dividend for Its Future Growth and Poverty Reduction?

Sub‐Saharan Africa will be undergoing substantial demographic changes over the next 15 years with the rising working‐age share of its population. The opportunity of African countries to convert these changes into demographic dividends for growth and poverty reduction will depend on several factors. The outlook will likely be good if African countries can continue the gains already made under better institutions and policies, particularly those affecting the productivity of labor, such as educational outcomes. If African countries can continue to build on the hard‐won development gains, the demographic dividend could account for 11–15% of gross domestic product (GDP) volume growth by 2030, while accounting for 40–60 million fewer poor in 2030. The gains can become more substantial with better educational outcomes that allow African countries to catch up to other developing countries. If the skill share of Africa's labor supply doubles because of improvements in educational attainment, from 25 to about 50% between 2011 and 2030, then the demographic dividends can expand the regional economy additionally by 22% by 2030 relative to the base case and reduce poverty by an additional 51 million people.     

Unit roots in the presence of abrupt governmental interventions with an application to Brazilian data

This paper considers econometric issues related to time-series data that have been subject to abrupt governmental interventions. The motivating example for this study is the Brazilian monthly inflation rate (1974:1–1993:6) which we use throughout for illustration. This series has been heavily influenced by the effect of so-called shock plans implemented by various governments starting in the mid-1980s. The plans act as ‘inliers’ in the sense that the series is temporarily brought down to low levels before returning to its previous trend path. We analyse the effects on standard unit root tests and measures of persistence caused by the presence of these ‘inliers’. We show a substantial bias in favour of concluding that the series is stationary and that shocks have temporary effects. We then construct appropriately corrected statistics which take into account the presence of the plans. These show, unlike the standard tests, that the stochastic behaviour of the inflation rate was indeed unstable over this period. Simulation results are presented to support the adequacy of our corrected statistics. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Dynamic bank runs: an agent-based approach

Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination - This paper simulates bank runs by using an agent-based approach to assess the depositors’ behavior under various scenarios in a...     

Central Bank Autonomy,the Exchange Rate Constraint and Inflation: The Case of Italy, 1970–1992

This paper analyzes the determinants of inflation in Italy over the period 1970–1992. Particular emphasis is placed on the role of central bank independence in influencing monetary growth, and on the role of monetary growth and of the Exchange rate Mechanism (ERM) in affecting inflation. In the 1970s and early 1980s, when the Bank of Italy lacked independence and the ERM was still not credible, monetary growth was highly unstable and was the main determinant of Italian inflation, although oil price and tax shocks also played a role. After the March 1983 general exchange rate realignment and the French U-turn, the ERM became more credible and monetary growth stopped being a significant determinant of inflation; instead, the German inflation became the main variable influencing Italian inflation.     

Children’s Snacks,their Ads and Consumer Sovereignty

Abstract

The concept of sovereign consumer preferences is challenged from three sides: child consumers, unhealthy food and advertising. The two theoretical concepts of merit goods and libertarian paternalism are implemented in order to classify situations in which full consumer sovereignty does not apply. An empirical analysis of ads for children’s snacks reveals the libertarian paternalist perspective as helpful for understanding the demand for and justification of ‘soft’ governmental intervention in the case of the advertised snacks, whilst the ads for these snacks may well be demerit goods. The banning or heavy taxation of these ads is therefore advocated.     

Text mining as a valuable tool in foresight exercises: A study on nanotechnology

Since its inception in 2001, the Center for Management and Strategic Studies (CGEE) has as its main activity the conduct of foresight studies in support of the decision making process related to the establishment of ST&I policies and activities in Brazil. The methodology used by the center combines quantitative and qualitative methods. Explicit and tacit knowledge is mobilized in the process of developing complementary or differentiated visions of the future.Most of the studies conducted by CGEE begin with data monitoring activities, making use of text mining techniques. One case study carried out by CGEE on the field of nanotechnology is presented. In this case, text mining was used at the first stage followed by qualitative techniques. Results were used to guide government agencies to fund nanotechnology R&D to help raise the competitiveness of several sectors of the Brazilian economy.     

Management style and airport performance in Brazil

The intention to privatize Brazilian public enterprises dates from 1990. As with other enterprises, a board was appointed at the Brazilian Airport Infrastructure Enterprise to prepare it for privatization. Although the enterprise remains public, there are clear signs of substantial changes in the airports it manages. This study uses data envelopment analysis techniques to investigate the impacts of changes in managerial style on airport performance between 1998 and 2001. Despite a decline in operational performance, financial performance improved.     

Systemic Risk, Dollarization, and Interest Rates in Emerging Markets: A Panel-Based Approach

This study investigates the impact of systemic risks and financialdollarization on real interest rates in emerging economies.Higher systemic risks induce both higher real interest ratesand increased dollarization. Using appropriate instruments forthe dollarization ratio, the study overcomes the simultaneousequation problem and correctly estimates a negative coefficientfor the dollarization ratio in the interest rate equation. Itconfirms the theoretical prediction that a strategy of "dedollarizing"the economy will raise the equilibrium domestic real interestrate if the strategy fails to address fundamental macroeconomicrisks. Even so, it also finds that this effect is small, aftercontrolling for the risks of dilution and default. The resultsbring to light the systemic-risk reasons for high interest ratesin emerging economies—and contribute to evaluating thedifficulties of dedollarization policies.