Risk Preferences and Environmental Uncertainty: Implications for Crop Diversification Decisions in Ethiopia

To the extent that diversifying income portfolio is used as a strategy for shielding against production risk, both individual risk aversion and weather uncertainty could affect crop diversification decisions. This paper is concerned with empirically assessing the effects of risk aversion and rainfall variability on farm level diversity. Unique panel data from Ethiopia consisting of experimentally generated risk aversion measures combined with rainfall data are employed in the analysis. The major contribution of this study is its explicit treatment of individual risk preferences in the decision to diversify, simultaneously controlling for environmental risk in the form of rainfall variability. Covariate shocks from rainfall variability are found to positively contribute to an increased level of diversity with individual risk aversion having a positive but less significant role. We find that rainfall variability in spring has a greater effect than rainfall variability summer??the major rainy season. This finding is in line with similar agronomic-meteorological studies. These results imply that in situ biodiversity conservation could be effective in areas with high rainfall variability. However, reduction in risk aversion, which is associated with poverty reduction, is likely to reduce in situ conservation.     

Resources, conflict and development choices: public good provision in resource rich economies

Natural resource wealth can be a curse or a blessing for a country. This paper hypothesises that the provision of productive public goods (or lack of it) is a pathway that helps understand these different outcomes when policy choices are made under the threat of conflict inherent in resource-rich countries. Facing potential conflict over resources, a self-interested ruler may choose to invest in either military repression or in productive public goods—physical and social infrastructure. While both measures aim at preventing conflict, we show theoretically that the optimal policy choice depends on the relative effectiveness of the ruler and the population in contesting the resources. Increased resource wealth provides a disincentive to invest in development if the ruler is more effective than the population in appropriating the resources. Conversely, if the ruler is relatively ineffective, more resource wealth induces higher levels of public goods. We present empirical evidence consistent with the predictions of the model for a sample of 57 countries over three decades. Thus, we provide and test empirically a conditional resource curse theory, postulating that the relative effectiveness of the contenders plays a crucial role in determining whether resources are a curse or a blessing.     

Targeting direct marketing campaigns by neural networks

Abstract

Market-oriented companies increasingly aim at maximising the return of targeted direct marketing campaigns, rather than trying to reach customers and prospects indistinctly, according to a mass marketing approach. The profitability of direct marketing campaigns depends on a detailed definition of prospects and an accurate prediction of the response rate. This study shows how the use of Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) can improve the effectiveness of direct mail marketing campaigns thanks to a better prediction of the response rate for subjects included in the target population according to factors that are believed to have an impact on their purchase intention. Results show the effectiveness of ANNs – in comparison with multiple regression analysis and logistic regression analysis – in identifying complex relationships among the data, and particularly in profiling customers and prospects and anticipating their behaviour.     

Innovation,Diffusion, Growth and the Environment: Taking Stock and Charting New Directions

The objective of this article is to provide a succinct review of the main developments in the field of research on the economics of growth, innovation, diffusion and the environment. We focus on the last fifteen to twenty years of scientific advances in the field as this corresponds to: (i) the consensus on the theoretical side on endogenous economic growth modelling, and (ii) the growing empirical work on innovation and diffusion due to the development of patent data. As very good reviews already exist in the literature, we only provide a brief and non-exhaustive discussion aiming at taking stock of some recent developments and charting new issues for a future research agenda.     

Will Technological Change Save the World? The Rebound Effect in International Transfers of Technology

Technological change and its transfer to developing countries is often portrayed by policy-makers as a critical part of the solution to a resource problem such as climate change, based on the assumption that the transfer of resource-conserving technologies to developing countries will result in reduced use of natural capital by those countries. We demonstrate here, in a capital conversion based model of development, that the free transfer of resource-conserving technologies to developing countries will increase the options available to those countries, but that the way that they expend these options need not be in the direction of conserving resources. This is another example of the potential for a rebound effect to determine ultimate outcomes, here in the context of international technology transfer policy. The transfer of technologies is as likely to simply move developing countries more rapidly down the same development path as it is to alter the choices they make along that path. For this reason, the transfer of resource-conserving technologies, without incentives provided to alter development priorities, may not result in any resource-conservation at all.     

Estimation of the precision matrix of multivariate Pearson type II model

In this paper, the problem of estimating the precision matrix of a multivariate Pearson type II-model is considered. A new class of estimators is proposed. Moreover, the risk functions of the usual and the proposed estimators are explicitly derived. It is shown that the proposed estimator dominates the MLE and the unbiased estimator, under the quadratic loss function. A simulation study is carried out and confirms these results. Improved estimator of tr (Σ ⁻¹) is also obtained.