A General Equilibrium Approach to the Nonequivalence of Tariffs and Quotas under International Duopoly

We examine the nonequivalence of tariffs and quotas under international duopoly in a simple general equilibrium trading model; in particular, we study the welfare effects of a change in regime from a tariff to a quota. We first show that the results established by our predecessors in a partial-equilibrium segmented domestic market model do not straightforwardly carry over to a general equilibrium context. We next extend the segmented domestic market model to an integrated world market model and re-examine the equivalence of tariffs and quotas as well as the welfare aspects of the change in the regime.     

Voluntary Export Restraints under Imperfect Competition

The paper studies the effects of a change in the level of voluntary export restraints (VERs) on the behavior of the domestic firm and on the welfare of the importing country. The author constructs a simple two‐country Cournot duopoly model in which each firm produces a homogeneous good at constant marginal cost. It is shown that the results obtained by predecessors based on linear demand, constant‐elasticity demand, strategic substitutes and so forth all emerge as special cases.     

Investigating household vehicle ownership,mode choice and trip sharing decisions using a combined revealed preference/stated preference Nested Logit model: case study in Bangkok Metropolitan Region

This study proposes a Nested Logit model to investigate household travel behaviour in respect to vehicle ownership, mode choice and trip sharing decisions. The model is analysed using revealed preference (RP) and stated preference (SP) data since a combined estimation of RP/SP data is an effective method of expressing complex travel behaviour and forecasting travel demand for new transport services. In the proposed model, the nesting structure has two levels. The upper level shows car ownership, motorcycle ownership, and no vehicle-ownership choices, and the lower level shows the mode choice combinations for two-traveller households. Trip sharing is considered as one of the mode-choice options in the model. The proposed model is analysed using data from the Bangkok Metropolitan Region. The analysis conducted informs that Central Business District (CBD) travel, long distance travel, household income, job status, age of travellers and presence of school children in households are key aspects in household travel decisions. Based on these aspects, households make important decisions on vehicle ownership, mode choice and trip sharing. In addition, this study reveals commuters’ hidden preferences for modes that are not in existence, in particular the Mass Rapid Transit System in the Bangkok Metropolitan Region due to be fully implemented in 2010.     

Economic Development in Asian Countries, and the Effectof Trade in Asia on Employment and Wages in Japan

There is a controversy in the USA and several European countries on whether or not an increase in imports in manufacturing goods from low-wage developing countries has major effects on employment and wages in industrialized countries. This paper examines the issue for Japanese imports, paying a particular attention to the effect of manufacturing imports from Asian countries on employment and wages in Japan. It is found that the effect has not been large to date, but that there could be negative effects on employment and, in particular, wages if imports from China and India were to increase substantially.     

Combining revealed and stated preferences data

Our objective is to develop a unifying framework for the incorporation of different types of survey data in individual choice models. We describe statistical methodologies that combine multiple sources of data in the estimation of individual choice models and summarize the current state of the art of data combination methods that have been used with market research data. The most successful applications so far have combined revealed and stated preference data. We discuss different types of market and survey data and provide examples of research contexts in which one might wish to combine them. Although these methods show a great deal of promise and have already been used successfully in a number of applications, several important research issues remain. A discussion of these issues and directions for further research conclude the paper.     

Modeling Methods for Discrete Choice Analysis

This paper introduces new forms, sampling and estimation approaches fordiscrete choice models. The new models include behavioral specifications oflatent class choice models, multinomial probit, hybrid logit, andnon-parametric methods. Recent contributions also include new specializedchoice based sample designs that permit greater efficiency in datacollection. Finally, the paper describes recent developments in the use ofsimulation methods for model estimation. These developments are designed toallow the applications of discrete choice models to a wider variety ofdiscrete choice problems.     

Policy Uncertainty and Saving Attitude: Evidence from a Survey on Consumers

Uncertainty over the social security and tax system is often pointed out as a source of stagnant household consumption at the aggregate level. This study presents empirical evidence on this issue by using original survey data of Japanese individuals. The results indicate that individuals are highly uncertain over the future course of social security and tax policies. The policy uncertainty is associated with an orientation toward saving, and the relationship is stronger for low‐income individuals. These results suggest that improving long‐term predictability in the social security and tax system may contribute to weakening households' saving orientation.     

Hybrid estimators for small diffusion processes based on reduced data

We deal with the Bayes type estimators and the maximum likelihood type estimators of both drift and volatility parameters for small diffusion processes defined by stochastic differential equations with small perturbations from high frequency data. From the viewpoint of numerical analysis, initial Bayes type estimators for both drift and volatility parameters based on reduced data are required, and adaptive maximum likelihood type estimators with the initial Bayes type estimators, which are called hybrid estimators, are proposed. The asymptotic properties of the initial Bayes type estimators based on reduced data are derived and it is shown that the hybrid estimators have asymptotic normality and convergence of moments. Furthermore, a concrete example and simulation results are given.     

What Types of Policy Uncertainties Matter for Business?

This paper reports data from the author's original survey of Japanese companies concerning the distributions on subjective uncertainties over economic policies and their effects on business operations. Companies perceive uncertainty over the future course of certain economic policies, such as the social security system and international trade policy. Policy uncertainty regarding the tax system, trade policy and environmental policy can have substantial effects on managerial decisions, especially on equipment investment and overseas activities. According to the companies’ subjective probability distributions on their sales outlook, manufacturers face greater uncertainty than non‐manufacturing companies do. Uncertainty over economic policies substantially reduces the expected sales growth rate.     

Equilibrium preference free pricing of derivatives under the generalized beta distributions

This paper demonstrates that the risk neutral valuation relationship (RNVR) exists when the aggregate wealth and the underlying variable for derivatives follow a distribution from the family of transformed beta distributions. Specifically, the asset specific pricing kernel (ASPK) is solved for the generalized beta (GB) distribution class, which is extremely flexible to describe various shapes of underlying distributions. With the ASPK in hand, preference free call option formulas are obtained for rescaled and shifted beta distribution of the first kind (RSB1) and for the second kind (RSB2). These distributions include many well known important distributions as special cases. If the preference free formula does not exist under the GB distribution class, then the call price is shown to be numerically calculated without information of preference parameters once the spot price of the underlying is given.