Nonresponse in Contingent Valuation-reducing uncertainty in value inference

This paper focuses on problems associated with nonresponse in Contingent Valuation surveys. The results from a telephone follow-up survey show that value inference can be considerably improved by information on nonrespondents' attitudes.     

Bayesian assessment of dimensionality in reduced rank regression

We consider Bayesian inference about the dimensionality in the multivariate reduced rank regression framework, which encompasses several models such as MANOVA, factor analysis and cointegration models for multiple time series. The fractional Bayes approach is used to derive a closed form approximation to the posterior distribution of the dimensionality and some asymptotic properties of the approximation are proved. Finite sample properties are studied by simulation and the method is applied to growth curve data and cointegrated multivariate time series.     

Non-convexities and the gains from concealing defenses from committed terrorists

How should countries defend against committed terrorists who attack until defeated? We identify a fundamental non-convexity—one only needs to defeat the terrorist once. Consequently, provided a country values targets similarly, it should conceal defenses and allocate defense resources randomly.     

The dynamic organizational contexts of executive succession: Considerations and challenges

Given the increasing changefulness of organizational circumstances, the change and transition role of executives takes on increasing prominence. This essay describes the dynamic context related to the organizational life cycle, evolutionary and planned change, and cultural transformation. Executive roles that provide guidance for executive assessment and development, and especially for selection, are explicated.     

Steady‐state priors for vector autoregressions

Bayesian priors are often used to restrain the otherwise highly over‐parametrized vector autoregressive (VAR) models. The currently available Bayesian VAR methodology does not allow the user to specify prior beliefs about the unconditional mean, or steady state, of the system. This is unfortunate as the steady state is something that economists usually claim to know relatively well. This paper develops easily implemented methods for analyzing both stationary and cointegrated VARs, in reduced or structural form, with an informative prior on the steady state. We document that prior information on the steady state leads to substantial gains in forecasting accuracy on Swedish macro data. A second example illustrates the use of informative steady‐state priors in a cointegration model of the consumption‐wealth relationship in the USA. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A New Test of Price Dispersion

In recent years considerable attention has been devoted to differences across countries in the institutional environments in which corporations operate, and the consequences of these institutional differences for corporate performance. In this paper we test for the presence of differences in corporate performance across 38 countries, and in particular whether these differences are related to the types of legal systems existing in each country. To measure corporate performance we estimate returns on investment relative to company costs of capital in each country. We find significant differences in the investment performance of corporations across our sample of countries. Companies in countries with English-origin, common law legal systems perform significantly better on average than do those in civil law systems.