Multi-stage real option evaluation with double barrier under stochastic volatility and interest rate

Annals of Finance - This paper focuses on valuing R&D projects using a twofold compound real option by including two knock-out barriers. However, the valuation of R&D projects is...     

Nonresponse in Contingent Valuation-reducing uncertainty in value inference

This paper focuses on problems associated with nonresponse in Contingent Valuation surveys. The results from a telephone follow-up survey show that value inference can be considerably improved by information on nonrespondents' attitudes.     

Bayesian assessment of dimensionality in reduced rank regression

We consider Bayesian inference about the dimensionality in the multivariate reduced rank regression framework, which encompasses several models such as MANOVA, factor analysis and cointegration models for multiple time series. The fractional Bayes approach is used to derive a closed form approximation to the posterior distribution of the dimensionality and some asymptotic properties of the approximation are proved. Finite sample properties are studied by simulation and the method is applied to growth curve data and cointegrated multivariate time series.     

Non-convexities and the gains from concealing defenses from committed terrorists

How should countries defend against committed terrorists who attack until defeated? We identify a fundamental non-convexity—one only needs to defeat the terrorist once. Consequently, provided a country values targets similarly, it should conceal defenses and allocate defense resources randomly.     

Escrow accounts and the value of mortgage servicing contracts

This paper was funded by the Education Committee of the Mortgage Bankers Association. We thank Richard Peach and Sharon Caravan of the MBA, Mark Marple and John Wiseman of MGIC, and Edward Kane of Boston College for their helpful comments, and especially Susan Busch Analytics, Inc for her keen market insights and extensive computational assistance.     

Steady‐state priors for vector autoregressions

Bayesian priors are often used to restrain the otherwise highly over‐parametrized vector autoregressive (VAR) models. The currently available Bayesian VAR methodology does not allow the user to specify prior beliefs about the unconditional mean, or steady state, of the system. This is unfortunate as the steady state is something that economists usually claim to know relatively well. This paper develops easily implemented methods for analyzing both stationary and cointegrated VARs, in reduced or structural form, with an informative prior on the steady state. We document that prior information on the steady state leads to substantial gains in forecasting accuracy on Swedish macro data. A second example illustrates the use of informative steady‐state priors in a cointegration model of the consumption‐wealth relationship in the USA. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A New Test of Price Dispersion

In recent years considerable attention has been devoted to differences across countries in the institutional environments in which corporations operate, and the consequences of these institutional differences for corporate performance. In this paper we test for the presence of differences in corporate performance across 38 countries, and in particular whether these differences are related to the types of legal systems existing in each country. To measure corporate performance we estimate returns on investment relative to company costs of capital in each country. We find significant differences in the investment performance of corporations across our sample of countries. Companies in countries with English-origin, common law legal systems perform significantly better on average than do those in civil law systems.     

PARTIAL HEDGING IN A STOCHASTIC VOLATILITY ENVIRONMENT

We consider the problem of partial hedging of derivative risk in a stochastic volatility environment. It is related to state-dependent utility maximization problems in classical economics. We derive the dual problem from the Legendre transform of the associated Bellman equation and interpret the optimal strategy as the perfect hedging strategy for a modified claim. Under the assumption that volatility is fast mean-reverting and using a singular perturbation analysis, we derive approximate value functions and strategies that are easy to implement and study. The analysis identifies the usual mean historical volatility and the harmonically averaged long-run volatility as important statistics for such optimization problems without further specification of a stochastic volatility model. The approximation can be improved by specifying a model and can be calibrated for the leverage effect from the implied volatility skew. We study the effectiveness of these strategies using simulated stock paths.     

Real Estate Settlement Pricing: A Theoretical Framework

This paper examines the pricing of real estate settlement services. Prices charged by real estate brokers, title insurers, private mortgage companies and other settlement service providers have been a public policy issue for a decade. The Real Estate Settlement Procedures Act of 1974 did little to alleviate public concerns or change pricing practices.
The paper provides both a conceptual framework and some observations on how prices for settlement services are determined. It concludes that the demand has little to do with the services themselves, but rather depends on the demand for housing. This creates an environment for unnecessary services to be performed and for prices to be far in excess of cost.     

Explaining municipal audit costs in Sweden: Reconsidering the political environment,the municipal organisation and the audit market

With the purpose of explaining professional audit costs in Swedish municipalities, we hypothesised that audit costs are partly driven by various signalling and monitoring incentives in order to manage stakeholder relationships. Our model of the determinants of audit costs was tested on data from Swedish municipalities, thus extending the study of audit costs to political organisations in a Scandinavian institutional context. The test supported to some extent the traditional propositions of organisational complexity, risk and market determinants, as well as the proposition of the political environment. Our results indicate that audit costs are used to signal accountability, thereby suggesting that audit as a signal could be managed without managing professional auditors.