Frequency of observation and the estimation of integrated volatility in deep and liquid financial markets

Using two newly available ultrahigh-frequency datasets, we investigate empirically how frequently one can sample certain foreign exchange and U.S. Treasury security returns without contaminating estimates of their integrated volatility with market microstructure noise. Using the standard realized volatility estimator, we find that one can sample dollar/euro returns as frequently as once every 15 to 20 s without contaminating estimates of integrated volatility; 10-year Treasury note returns may be sampled as frequently as once every 2 to 3 min on days without U.S. macroeconomic announcements, and as frequently as once every 40 s on announcement days. Using a simple realized kernel estimator, this sampling frequency can be increased to once every 2 to 5 s for dollar/euro returns and to about once every 30 to 40 s for T-note returns. These sampling frequencies, especially in the case of dollar/euro returns, are much higher than those that are generally recommended in the empirical literature on realized volatility in equity markets. The higher sampling frequencies for dollar/euro and T-note returns likely reflect the superior depth and liquidity of these markets.     

哥本哈根Copenhagen世界最佳城市的模样

哥本哈根没有什么高楼,更没有什么摩天大楼,大多数的房子都不超过五层.站在高处看过去,视野极为开阔,整个城市就像是一块灰色和橙色交织在一起的绒布.……     

The impact of FDI on the performance and entrepreneurship of domestic firms

This paper examines how foreign direct investments influence the performance and entrepreneurship of domestic firms, a crucial question for economies driven by incursion of exogenous factors and especially transition economies. The intent is to investigate the way foreign direct investments shape the capabilities of domestic firms; hence, for this purpose, we take Macedonia, a Southeast European economy, as a case study. We find that (i) foreign ownership has helped restructure and enhance the productivity of domestic firms, (ii) FDI has positive influence in reinforcing the creation of new firms, and (iii) in line with the established literature, a foreign investment is likely to influence the job seeker to get employed rather to start their own business. Overall, the results confirm the influence of foreign firms in assisting entrepreneurial activity. The impact of foreign investment is, in general, positive and tends to influence the restructuring process of domestic enterprises.     

On the properties of the coefficient of determination in regression models with infinite variance variables

We examine the asymptotic properties of the coefficient of determination, R²$R^2$, in models with α-stable$\alpha \text{-stable}$   random variables. If the regressor and error term share the same index of stability α<2$\alpha <2$, we show that the R²$R^2$  statistic does not converge to a constant but has a nondegenerate distribution on the entire [0,1]$[0,1]$ interval. We provide closed-form expressions for the cumulative distribution function and probability density function of this limit random variable, and we show that the density function is unbounded at 0 and 1. If the indices of stability of the regressor and error term are unequal, we show that the coefficient of determination converges in probability to either 0 or 1, depending on which variable has the smaller index of stability, irrespective of the value of the slope coefficient. In an empirical application, we revisit the Fama and MacBeth (1973) two-stage regression and demonstrate that in the infinite-variance case the R²$R^2$  statistic of the second-stage regression converges to 0 in probability even if the slope coefficient is nonzero. We deduce that a small value of the R²$R^2$  statistic should not, in itself, be used to reject the usefulness of a regression model.     

Contagion and risk premia in the amplification of crisis: Evidence from Asian names in the global CDS market

In the turmoil of 2007–2009, troubles in a small segment of the US mortgage market escalated into a crisis of global proportions. A striking feature of the crisis is the contagion that hit Asia. In a region where direct exposures to problem mortgages were minimal, credit spreads for major borrowers widened even more than they did in Europe and the United States. We argue that the contagion was part of an amplification mechanism driven by valuation losses caused by the bursting of a global credit bubble. The valuation losses stemmed not so much from a reassessment of credit risks as from a global repricing of these risks. It was this repricing that was the main channel for contagion into Asian credit (and equity) markets. For empirical evidence, we analyze fluctuations in credit default swap (CDS) spreads and expected default frequencies (EDFs) for major Asian borrowers. We find that valuation losses on CDS contracts for these Asian borrowers arose in part from movements in global and region-specific risk pricing factors as well as from revisions to expected losses from defaults.     

Scilab as an econometric programming system

This article reviews Scilab, a free MATLAB‐like programming system. Scilab can be used for data analysis and applied numerical work in both research and teaching. Scilab is an interesting alternative to some commercial programming environments. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.