Development by Decree: The Limits of ‘Authoritarian Modernization’ in the Russian Federation

The apparent success of state‐managed market economies has challenged the conventional wisdom that liberal democracy is the norm around which all capitalist countries tend to converge. If the link between democracy and development is more tenuous than we often think, the authoritarian variety of capitalism is not without its own problems, especially with respect to political legitimacy, innovation and regional development. This article explores these issues through the prism of ‘authoritarian modernization’ in Russia. We argue that this strategy is unlikely to succeed, even in its own terms, because (1) the political system fails to create favourable institutional conditions for modernization; (2) the economic system is beset by deeply embedded structural problems; and (3) the regional policy apparatus is torn between the goals of spatial equalization and spatial agglomeration. The article focuses on the Skolkovo Innovation Centre, the main symbol of Russian modernization, to demonstrate the territorial repertoire of the mega‐project, a state‐sponsored development strategy to create innovation clusters from above because they cannot emerge from below.     

The impact of a study abroad programme on learning abilities and personality traits: evidence from a randomization

Personality traits are increasingly considered as a powerful predictor of socio-economic success as academic achievement. In this article, we exploit the random assignment of applicants to a programme in order to retrieve unbiased estimates of the impact of studying abroad on both cognitive and noncognitive abilities. Our findings suggest that secondary school students, especially those considered ‘more able’, benefited from a 1-month experience abroad, as it enhanced both personality traits and language proficiency.     

New Evidence on Class Size Effects: A Pupil Fixed Effects Approach*

The impact of class size on student achievement remains a thorny question for educational decision makers. Meta‐analyses of empirical studies emphasize the absence of class‐size effects but detractors have argued against such pessimistic conclusions because many of the underlying studies have not paid attention to the endogeneity of class size. This article uses a stringent method to address the endogeneity problem using Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study data on 47 countries. We measure the class size effect by relating the difference in a student's achievement across subjects to the difference in his/her class size across subjects. This (subject‐differenced) within‐pupil achievement production function avoids the problem of the non‐random matching of children to specific schools, and to classes within schools. The results show a statistically significant negative effect of class size in 14 countries, but the effect size is small in most cases. Several robustness tests are carried out, including control for students’ subject‐specific ability and subject‐specific teacher characteristics, and correction for possible measurement error. Thus, our approach to addressing the endogeneity problem confirms the findings of meta‐analyses that find little support for class size effects. Additionally, we find that class size effects are smaller in countries with higher teacher quality.     

Nonlinear models,composite longer leading indicator and forecasts for UK real GDP

This paper examines the role of the Office for National Statistics Composite Longer Leading Indicator, in nonlinear business cycle models for growth rates of UK real gross domestic product (GDP). These models are of the smooth transition regression class, with the transition between “regimes” expressed as functions of lagged changes in the leading indicator. In general, evidence is found of business cycle regime asymmetries, with increases and decreases in the leading indicator implying distinct responses for the dependent variable. Single transition function appears to capture these asymmetries satisfactorily. Nonlinear models provide more accurate one-step ahead forecasts than corresponding linear leading indicator models.     

The Role of Regional Integration,Security and Development in Southern Africa

Abstract: This paper investigates the causal interlinkagcs between regional integration, security and development in Southern Africa, with special emphasis on the role of regional integration in the promotion of security in the region. It surveys the economic potentials of the region, the security concerns, and the development of institutions for regional integration. The paper then recommends new regional arrangemments for the promotion of joint security in the region with the objective of achieving both security and regional sustainable development. Résumé: Cet article s'interroge sur les liens de cause à effet entre l'intégration régionale, la sécuritéét le développement en Afrique australe, en insistant tout particulièrement sur le rôle de l'intégration régionale dans la promotion de la sécurité, au niveau de la région. Il analyse les potentialités économiques de la région, les problèmes de sécurité, et la misc en place d'institutions pour l'intégration régionale. Puis il recomande de nouveaux mécanismes régionaux pour promouvoir la sécurité commune dans la région avec l'objcctif de réaliscr à la fois la sécurité et le développement régional durable.     

Business cycle non‐linearities in UK consumption and production

This paper develops non‐linear smooth transition autoregressive (STAR) models with two additive smooth transition components to capture the business cycle characteristics of UK real consumers' expenditure and industrial production. The results indicate consumption has essentially two business cycle regimes: recession and expansion. Industrial production, however, is characterized by the three regimes of recession, normal growth and high growth. The transitions describing recovery from recession are very similar for the two variables. Stochastic simulations illustrate the dynamic responses of these models and emphasize that they are locally linear. Our results also indicate that the two‐transition STAR models have some forecast advantages over other specifications for periods of contraction. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A new international database on education quality: 1965–2010

The aim of this article is to propose a new database allowing a comparative evaluation of the relative performance of schooling systems around the world. We measure this performance through pupils’ achievement in standardized tests. We merge all existing regional and international student achievement tests by using a specific methodology. When compared with other existing databases, our approach innovates in several ways, especially by including regional student achievement tests and intertemporal comparable indicators. We provide a data set of indicators of quality of student achievement for 103 countries/areas in primary education and 111 countries/areas in secondary education between 1965 and 2010.     

Discretion and accountability: An economic analysis of the ESMA judgment and the Meroni doctrine

This paper assesses the effectiveness of the Meroni doctrine in the light of the recent judgment in the ESMA case. The fi rst part explains in detail the problem of delegation of powers in the EU from the perspective of the principal-agent theory and complements it with the analysis of the trade-off between different levels of independence and accountability of agencies. A simple economic model is developed to illustrate the relationship between the independence and accountability of an agency. It shows that it is the accountability mechanism that induces the agent to act, rather than the extent of his independence. The paper also explains the intertemporal interactions between the principal and the agent on the basis of the incentives in place for the different players.