Reverse mortgages through artificial intelligence: new opportunities for the actuaries

Decisions in Economics and Finance - In its basic structure, the reverse mortgage (RM) is a contract where a home owner borrows a part or the totality of the future liquidation value of his home at...     

Suspicion and Perceptions of Price Fairness in Times of Crisis

Times of crisis bring about increased demands on businesses as shortages, or unexpected but significant, business costs are encountered. Passing on such costs to consumers is a challenge. When faced with a retail price increase, consumers may rely on cues as to the motive behind the increase. Such cues can raise suspicion of alternative motive (e.g., taking advantage of the consumer) affecting consumers’ judgments of price fairness. This research investigates two triggers of suspicion: salience of alternative motives, and behavior judged to be out-of-character for the business. Results of the two studies within crisis contexts indicate that suspicion is created when alternative motives are salient and when a retailer acts out-of-character. Multiple group analyses revealed that suspicion induced negative affect and subsequent perceptions of price fairness. When suspicion was present, more negative feelings toward the retailer and judgments of price unfairness resulted.     

Advances in consumer education: European initiatives

The purpose of this article is to inform the reader of developments in consumer education in the European Union and to present future directions for policy and research. The article responds to a call for more consumer education and the promotion of sustainable consumption. It makes a case for the benefits of studying the dynamic multi‐country process of developing coordinated consumer education curriculum and resources involving academics, government officials and non‐governmental organizations, ultimately affecting millions of students. The review of select initiatives, questions posed and subsequent recommendations highlights the complexity of the issues surrounding economic viability and the pedagogical and social value of transnational consumer education initiatives.     

Detecting Common Longevity Trends by a Multiple Population Approach

Recently the interest in the development of country and longevity risk models has been growing. The investigation of long-run equilibrium relationships could provide valuable information about the factors driving changes in mortality, in particular across ages and across countries. In order to investigate cross-country common longevity trends, tools to quantify, compare, and model the strength of dependence become essential. On one hand, it is necessary to take into account either the dependence for adjacent age groups or the dependence structure across time in a single population setting—a sort of intradependence structure. On the other hand, the dependence across multiple populations, which we describe as interdependence, can be explored for capturing common long-run relationships between countries. The objective of our work is to produce longevity projections by taking into account the presence of various forms of cross-sectional and temporal dependencies in the error processes of multiple populations, considering mortality data from different countries. The algorithm that we propose combines model-based predictions in the Lee-Carter (LC) framework with a bootstrap procedure for dependent data, and so both the historical parametric structure and the intragroup error correlation structure are preserved. We introduce a model which applies a sieve bootstrap to the residuals of the LC model and is able to reproduce, in the sampling, the dependence structure of the data under consideration. In the current article, the algorithm that we build is applied to a pool of populations by using ideas from panel data; we refer to this new algorithm as the Multiple Lee-Carter Panel Sieve (MLCPS). We are interested in estimating the relationship between populations of similar socioeconomic conditions. The empirical results show that the MLCPS approach works well in the presence of dependence.     

What if Variable Annuity Policyholders With Guaranteed Lifelong Withdrawal Benefit Were Rational?

This article examines the lapse risk inherent to the guaranteed lifelong withdrawal benefit option embedded in a variable annuity product valuated from a pure derivatives perspective, that is, as a Bermudian option given to the policyholder. We assume rational behavior and quantify the potential impact of the lapse risk, defined as the difference between no lapse and optimal lapsing. We develop a sensitivity analysis that shows how the value of the product varies with the key parameters, and calculate the fair fee using Monte Carlo simulations. Empirical analyses are performed and numerical results are provided.