Social Scientific Explanations?

Generally valid scientific explanations of observable social phenomena are still hardly available. By applying philosophical insights generated by Quine and derived from semiotics to social research methodology three kinds of context dependencies accompanying theory formation within social science are identified. The third context dependency is mostly not attended in theory formation about social phenomena thereby producing a ``connotation fallacy', which leaves almost all social theories undetermined and fallible. These context dependencies should be taken into account in the research design and be tested for using statistical criteria comprising a new methodology presented in this article.     

Interdisciplinary social science: a methodological analysis

Since the 1930's, interdisciplinarity has been advocated in the social sciences for the purpose of achieving more comprehensive explanations of observable social phenomena. However, the realization of this promising perspective has been rather poor. This article argues that two main causes of the failure to create interdisciplinary social science can be distinguished, i.e., methodological and theoretical problems. Methodological problems stem either from taking a reductionist approach towards interdisciplinarity, or by mistaking measurement issues for theoretical topics. Theoretical problems result from the poor state and rate of theory formation within psychology. The implications of these problems are that the validity and reliability of explanations of macro social phenomena, which are provided by disciplines such as sociology and macro economics, are seriously at stake.     

Die entwicklung der anteile der wirtschaftsbereiche am bruttoinlandsprodukt eine strukturprognose

Summary The Development of the Sectoral Shares of Production in Gross National Product. A Forecast of the Production Structure. — Fels, Schatz and Wolter analysed the relationship between the share of the various sectors of production in GNP and the per capita income and presented a forecast for the BRD on the basis of regression equations. Our paper deals with the same economic variables but presents a different forecast technique. Our approach is based on a different type of regression functions and shows a better consistence and more stability in the long run. The new model is based on a multi-stage method. Calculating for each stage an independent forecast the final forecast for the structure of production is obtained by using definition equations.

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Résumé Le développement de l’importance relative des secteurs économiques au produit national brut. Un pronostic de la structure de production. — Fels, Schatz et Wolter ont analysé la relation entre les parts qu’ont les différents secteurs au produit national (structure) et le montant par tête du produit national (niveau). Le pronostic pour la BRD, qu’ils ont basé sur cette analyse à l’aide d’équations de régression, est examiné critiquement dans cet article. On y présente un nouveau pronostic, qui se base sur les mêmes variables économiques, mais qui diffère de l’autre par un autre type de fonctions de régression, par un raisonnement plus serré, et par plus de stabilité à long terme. Le nouveau modèle est basé sur une méthode à étapes. Après avoir calculé pour chaque étape un pronostic indépendant, on trouve le pronostic final pour la structure de la production à l’aide d’équations de définition.

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Resumen El desarrollo de la participación de los sectores productivos en el producto interno bruto. Un pronóstico estructural. — Fels, Schatz y Wolter han analizado la relación entre la participación de los sectores en el producto nacional (estructura) y el nivel del ingreso per cápita (nivel). En el presente artículo se analiza criticamente el pronóstico para la RFA llevado a cabo mediante ecuaciones de regresión y se le confronta con un planteamiento alternativo. Este planteamiento nuevo se basa en las mismas variables económicas, pero se diferencia por el tipo de función, por una mejor consistencia y una mayor estabilidad a largo plazo. El nuevo modelo consiste de un procedimiento de escala en el cual se calculan para los diversos escalones valores de pronóstico independientes y en el que el enlace de estos valores facilita luego el pronóstico estructural deseado.

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Riassunto Lo sviluppo delle quote dei settori economici nel prodotto nazionale lordo. Una prognosi strutturale. — Fels, Schatz e Wolter analizzarono la connessione tra le quote dei settori del prodotto sociale (struttura) e l’altezza del prodotto sociale pro capite (livello). La prognosi per la RFT fatta sulla base di questa analisi con aiuto di equazioni di regressione viene lumeggiata criticamente nel presente lavoro e messa di fronte ad una nuova impostazione di prognosi. Questa nuova impostazione si basa sulle stesse variabili economiche, si differenzia, però, per il tipo di funzione, migliore consistenza e maggiore stabilità a lunga scadenza. Il nuovo modello si basa su un procedimento a gradi in cui i valori di prognosi indipendenti sono calcolati per i singoli gradi ed il congiungimento di questi valori di prognosi successivamente fornisce la desiderata prognosi di struttura.