Coupon and tax effects on new and seasoned bond yields and the measurement of the cost of debt capital

A model of the tax structure of interest rates is developed and simple approximate expressions relating yield to coupon are derived. The effect on these simple expressions of alternative assumptions about holding period length, expectations of future interest rates, and other factors, is evaluated. It is shown that with recent U.S. yield averages the new-seasoned yield spread varies with the new-seasoned coupon spread as the theory prescribes. It is concluded that new issue yield averages should provide a more reliable measure of the cost of debt capital than is provided by seasoned yield averages.     

APPROXIMATING PURCHASE PROPENSITIES AND RESERVATION PRICES FROM BROAD CONSUMER TRACKING

A consumer's web-browsing history, now readily available, may be much more useful than demographics for both targeting advertisements and personalizing prices. Using a method that combines economic modeling and machine learning methods, I find a striking difference. Personalizing prices based on web-browsing histories increases profits by 12.99%. Using demographics alone to personalize prices raises profits by only 0.25%, suggesting the percent profit gain from personalized pricing has increased 50-fold. I then investigate whether regulations intended to prevent price gouging increase aggregate consumer surplus. Two feasible regulations considered offer at best modest improvements.     

Manipulation and Deception as Part of a Phishing Equilibrium

Free markets are products of peace and freedom, flourishing in stable times when people do not live in fear. But they also create an economic equilibrium that is highly suitable for enterprises that manipulate or distort our judgment on competitive markets. Unregulated free markets rarely reward the different kind of heroism, of those who restrain themselves from taking advantage of customers’ psychological or informational weaknesses. People frequently make decisions that are not in their best interest. Such bad decisions make it possible for them to be phished for phools. If we have some weakness or other—some way in which we can be phished for phools for more than the usual profit—in the phishing equilibrium, it will be taken up.     

LABOR INCOME INDICES DESIGNED FOR USE IN CONTRACTS PROMOTING INCOME RISK MANAGEMENT

We propose that labor income indices be used to define settlements in many contracts, such as labor contracts, indexed bonds, or income securities. We discuss the issues in producing labor income indices for such uses, and develop prototype indices using US. data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID). People are grouped by a clustering algorithm based on an estimated transition matrix between jobs, by education level, and by skill category. The groupings are defined so that few people move between them. For each grouping we generate a labor income index (1968–87) using a hedonic repeated-measures regression method. The indices show substantial variability through time, confirming the potential importance of the use of such indices in contracts. There is also substantial variability across groupings, as for example between the agriculture/labor grouping and other groupings, confirming the importance of using the grouping indices rather than aggregate indices in contracts.     

The Squam Lake Report: Fixing the Financial System*

In these excerpts from The Squam Lake Report, fifteen distinguished economists analyze where the global financial system failed, and how such failures might be prevented (or at least their damage better contained) in the future. Although there were many contributing factors to the crisis—including “agency” problems throughout the financial system and a bankruptcy code poorly suited for reorganizing financial firms—at the core of the problem is a potential conflict between the risk-taking proclivity of financial institutions and the interests of the economy at large that must be managed at least in part through more effective regulation. The Squam Lake Report provides a nonpartisan plan to transform the regulation of financial markets in ways designed to limit systemic risk while preserving—to the extent possible and prudent—the economies of scale and scope that justify the existence of today's large financial institutions. To reduce the risks that large banks will fail, the authors call for higher capital requirements based on more effective assessments of the risks of bank assets and liabilities, as well as a new systemic regulator that should be part of the central bank. To reduce the costs of failure when it occurs, the authors propose that banks be required to create “living wills” laying out their plan to sell assets or shut down operations in the event of financial trouble. As part of that plan, regulators are urged to “aggressively encourage” banks to issue “contingent” debt capital securities that convert into equity.     

Digital distribution and the prohibition of resale markets for information goods

An existing theoretical literature finds that frictionless resale markets cannot reduce profits of monopolist producers of perfectly durable goods. This paper starts by presenting logical arguments suggesting this finding does not hold for goods consumers tire of with use, implying the impact of resale is an empirical question. The empirical impact is then estimated in the market for video games, one of many markets in which producers may soon legally prevent resale by distributing their products digitally as downloads or streamed rentals. Estimation proceeds in two steps. First, demand parameters are estimated using a dynamic discrete choice model in a market with allowed resale, using data on new sales and used trade-ins. Then, using these parameter estimates, prices, profits, and consumer welfare are simulated under counterfactual environments. When resale is allowed, firms are unable to prevent their goods from selling for low prices in later periods. The ability to do so by restricting resale outright yields significant profit increases. Renting, however, does not raise profits as much due to a revenue extraction problem.     

Music for a Song: An Empirical Look at Uniform Pricing and Its Alternatives

With digital music as its context, this paper quantifies how much money would be made using alternatives to uniform pricing. Using survey‐based data on nearly 1,000 students' valuations of 100 popular songs in early 2008 and early 2009, we find that various alternatives can raise both producer and consumer surplus. Digital music revenue could be raised by between a sixth and a third relative to profit‐maximizing uniform pricing. While person‐specific uniform pricing can raise revenue by over 50 per cent, none of the non‐discriminatory schemes raise revenue's share of surplus above 40 per cent of total surplus.     

The Music Industry as a Vehicle for Economic Analysis

Student dissatisfaction with teaching of economics—particularly with macroeconomics—during the current financial crisis mirrors dissatisfaction that was expressed during the last big crisis, the Great Depression. Then and now, a good number of students have felt that their lectures bear little relation to the economic crisis raging outside the halls of academe. The economics profession seems unusual, when compared with some other professions, in complaints that the teaching is irrelevant to practical lives. There appear to be few complaints among physics students that their education does not prepare them for practical pursuits, such as engineering. But economics, particularly macroeconomics, is different from physics not because of the mode of teaching but because the subject matter is harder to conceptualize. Models have to be frequently discarded and fundamentally new ones have to be brought to bear to make them relevant to changed circumstances. Student dissatisfaction with economics, however, is, despite some vocal complaints, not intense overall, and enrollments are growing. Students mostly recognize that their teachers are struggling with the conceptual difficulties that are inherent in the field. Teachers can encourage such recognition and best serve their students if they refer regularly and respectfully to the history of economic thought, conveying the reasons for the theoretical constructs of other times and the tentativeness of current theories.     

Consumption correlatedness and risk measurement in economies with non-traded assets and heterogeneous information

A technique is presented for deriving equilibrium models of asset risk premia in continuous time models which does not require the complete solution of a consumer's continuous time stochastic control problem. The technique is used to show that even if traders have heterogeneous information about asset returns and/or there are non-traded assets, then the risk premium of a traded asset is determined by the covariance between the asset's return and the rate of change in per capita consumption. We only require the assumption that traders' consumptions and traded asset values form an Ito process.