Modelling international tourism and country risk spillovers for Cyprus and Malta

Small Island Tourism Economies (SITEs) are developing sovereign countries that rely on tourism as a source of exports, and need a consistent inflow of foreign investment in order to facilitate economic growth. Access to international capital markets helps SITEs smooth out their consumption over time, while absorbing adverse domestic production shocks. This paper provides a comparison of tourism growth, country risk returns and their associated volatilities (or uncertainty) for 2 SITEs, namely Cyprus and Malta. Monthly data are available for both international tourist arrivals and composite country risk ratings compiled by the International Country Risk Guide (ICRG) for the period May 1986 to May 2002. The time-varying conditional variances of tourism growth and country risk returns for the 2 SITEs are analysed using multivariate models of conditional volatility. Empirical results show that Cyprus and Malta are complementary destinations for international tourists. Changes to tourism patterns in Cyprus lead to changes to tourism patterns in Malta. Hence, tour operators and national tourism promotion authorities in Cyprus and Malta should collaborate closely in marketing and promoting joint tourism products. Moreover, foreign entities interested in investing in the tourism sectors of Cyprus and Malta should consider investment projects that span a long period of time. The performance of the tourism sector and the associated composite risk are independent of each other for the two countries. However, there is a direct relationship between the tourism sectors of Cyprus and Malta and their respective country risk settings.     

INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY LITIGATION ACTIVITY IN THE USA

Abstract.  Brand names or trademarks carry incredible economic power and prestige. There is increasing recognition by world bodies that intellectual property (IP), whether manifested in patents, trademarks, copyrights or trade secrets, is highly valuable and must be protected through robust IP enforcement. The USA is an interesting natural laboratory as patent, trademark and copyright litigation battles have been raging domestically for some time. The paper discusses the four main forms of IP assets, the legal remedies that are available to enforce the property rights inherent in each type of IP asset, the basic damages theory relating to each form of IP, and how damages may be calculated when each type of asset is presumed to be infringed. The increased recognition of the value of IP has led to stronger enforcement of IP protection, an increase in IP litigation, and growing policy actions that are focused on how that protection should be manifested. An empirical analysis of how the IP litigation activity in the USA has changed over time is also presented.     

An Empirical Assessment of Country Risk Ratings and Associated Models

Abstract.  Country risk has become a topic of major concern for the international financial community over the last two decades. The importance of country ratings is underscored by the existence of several major country risk rating agencies, namely the Economist Intelligence Unit, Euromoney, Institutional Investor, International Country Risk Guide, Moody's, Political Risk Services, and Standard and Poor's. These risk rating agencies employ different methods to determine country risk ratings, combining a range of qualitative and quantitative information regarding alternative measures of economic, financial and political risk into associated composite risk ratings. However, the accuracy of any risk rating agency with regard to any or all of these measures is open to question. For this reason, it is necessary to review the literature relating to empirical country risk models according to established statistical and econometric criteria used in estimation, evaluation and forecasting. Such an evaluation permits a critical assessment of the relevance and practicality of the country risk literature. The paper also provides an international comparison of risk ratings for twelve countries from six geographic regions. These ratings are compiled by the International Country Risk Guide, which is the only rating agency to provide detailed and consistent monthly data over an extended period for a large number of countries. The time series data permit a comparative assessment of the international country risk ratings, and highlight the importance of economic, financial and political risk ratings as components of a composite risk rating.     

HOW DOES COUNTRY RISK AFFECT INNOVATION? AN APPLICATION TO FOREIGN PATENTS REGISTERED IN THE USA

Abstract.  Innovation can occur at the national level under a wide range of settings. However, the leading innovative countries internationally have several common traits, including economic, financial and political stability, which are reflected in various measures of country risk. The purpose of the paper is to examine, for the first time, the relationship between the economic, financial and political country risk ratings, on the one hand, and innovation, as measured by a country's registered patents, on the other. The relationships between various monthly country risk ratings and registered patents are analyzed for the leading 12 foreign patenting countries in the USA from 1975 to 1997. The empirical results show that economic, financial and political risk ratings have a considerable impact on the innovative activities of the 12 countries. Total US patent applications are also influential in inducing innovation in the 12 countries. Such issues have not previously been addressed in the literature on country risk and innovation.     

MEASURING RISK IN ENVIRONMENTAL FINANCE

Abstract.  Environmental sustainability indices, such as the Dow Jones Sustainability Indexes and the Ethibel Sustainability Index, quantify the development and promotion of sustainable social, ethical and environmental values in the community. Moreover, such indices provide a benchmark for managing sustainability portfolios, and developing financial products and services that are linked to sustainable economic, environmental, social and ethical criteria. This paper reviews the existing data and risk indices in environmental finance. The main purpose of the paper is to analyse existing sustainability and ethical indices in environmental finance, and evaluate empirical environmental risk by estimating conditional volatility clustering that is inherent in these indices. Financial volatility models are estimated to analyse the underlying conditional volatility or time-varying risk that is inherent in alternative environmental sustainability indices. Volatility clustering is observed for most series, but some extreme observations are also evident. The log- and second-moment conditions suggest that valid inferences can be drawn for purposes of sensible empirical analysis.