Estimating Trade Misinvoicing from Bilateral Trade Statistics: The Devil is in the Details

Trade misinvoicing, an important channel of illicit financial flows, is frequently estimated by the partner-country trade data comparison method. However, this method relies on a critical but incorrect assumption that the trade statistics in partner countries exhibit no misinvoicing. This study proves that the assumption of no misinvoicing in partner countries cannot be supported, raising serious doubts about the reliability of the method and a possibility that inappropriate policy decisions may be made based on the erroneous estimates of trade misinvoicing. We introduce an alternative method to estimate trade misinvoicing which does not rely on the trade statistics of partner countries.     

The variable effects of dynamic capability by firm size: the interaction of innovation and marketing capabilities in competitive industries

Although investments in marketing and innovation capabilities theoretically help firms to compete in dynamic markets and enhance performance, company size has a strong influence on whether this is the case. In a test of a proposed conceptual model, this study of 692 small, medium, and large enterprises found that large firms prospered from building dynamic capabilities under conditions of high industry competitiveness, while investments in innovation and marketing individually diminished small firms’ performance. The effect was mixed for medium-size firms. In small enterprises, however, dynamic capability proved to be crucial in order to withstand competition. Therefore, taking into account these firms’ limited resources, managerial efforts should be focused on the integration of marketing and innovation capabilities, because each capability alone does not have a significant positive impact on performance. In medium-sized enterprises, the support of marketing capability is required to raise profitability under conditions of high industry competitiveness; otherwise, innovation would not lead to actual profits. For large enterprises, industry competitiveness was found to be a less serious threat to performance, and instead is a catalyst to the development of capabilities, suggesting that managers of such firms should focus on building long-term strategic advantages.     

THE EFFECT OF TECHNOLOGICAL IMPROVEMENT ON CAPACITY EXPANSION FOR UNCERTAIN EXPONENTIAL DEMAND WITH LEAD TIMES

We formulate a model of capacity expansion that is relevant to a service provider for whom the cost of capacity shortages would be considerable but difficult to quantify exactly. Due to demand uncertainty and a lead time for adding capacity, not all shortages are avoidable. In addition, technological innovations will reduce the cost of adding capacity but may not be completely predictable. Analytical expressions for the infinite horizon expansion cost and shortages are optimized numerically. Sensitivity analyses allow us to determine the impact of technological change on the optimal timing and sizes of capacity expansions to account for economies of scale, the time value of money and penalties for insufficient capacity.     

Understanding IJV performance in a learning and conflict mediated context

Determinants of international joint venture (IJV) performance are examined within the context of cross-border learning. Using a structural equation model, we test the multifaceted interactions among strategic goal congruency, national culture differences, learning and conflict. Cross-border learning is recognized as a kernel variable which is influenced by matching strategic motives, national culture differences, and conflicting relations, and which affects the performance of IJVs. In particular, we hypothesize that interpartner goal congruency and national culture differences have an indirect effect on IJV performance through cross-border learning and conflict; previous studies established their direct relationship. The test results show that congruent strategic motives and cultural similarity had a positive effect on cross-border learning, which was reinforced by learning capacity, and which in turn led to better performance. Conflicting relations between partners and heterogeneous cultural backgrounds were shown to discourage cross-border learning.     

Government Expenditures and Economic Growth: The Supply and Demand Sides*

This paper uses a new approach to estimate how government expenditures affect the growth rate of real GDP. They affect the growth rate through three channels ‐ total factor productivity, investment and aggregate demand. We find that apart from government investment, all government expenditures have negative marginal effects on productivity and GDP growth. In particular, a 1 percentage point increase in the share of government consumption in GDP reduces the equilibrium GDP growth rate by 0.216 percentage points, while the same increase in government investment raises the growth rate by 0.167 percentage points. This suggests that a reallocation of 1 percentage point of government consumption to government investment can raise the growth rate by 0.38 percentage points.     

Examining the effects of robotic service on brand experience: the moderating role of hotel segment

This research investigates the effects of robotic service on guest evaluations of hotel brand experience, and examines the moderating effects of hotel segment via a 2 (service delivery video: human or robot) x 3 (hotel segment: budget, midscale, or luxury) between-subjects experimental design. The findings suggest higher levels of sensory and intellectual experience from robotic service but lower levels of affective experience. For behavioral experience, robotic service influenced a higher rating for midscale and budget hotels, but not for a luxury hotel. Overall, robotic service may not necessarily enhance brand experience as influenced by the moderating role of hotel segment.     

Gauging potential sovereign risk contagion in Europe

This study adopts the CoVaR methodology to analyse the tail risk relationships among European sovereigns, which provide arguably important information for policymakers to identify countries that should come under close scrutiny during the current debt crisis.     

Evaluation of Black-Scholes and GARCH Models Using Currency Call Options Data

This paper empirically examines the performance of Black-Scholes and Garch-M call option pricing models using call options data for British Pounds, Swiss Francs and Japanese Yen. The daily exchange rates exhibit an overwhelming presence of volatility clustering, suggesting that a richer model with ARCH/GARCH effects might have a better fit with actual prices. We perform dominant tests and calculate average percent mean squared errors of model prices. Our findings indicate that the Black-Scholes model outperforms the GARCH models. An implication of this result is that participants in the currency call options market do not seem to price volatility clusters in the underlying process.     

Estimating the magnitude of capital flight due to abnormal pricing in international trade: The Russia–USA case

Governmental and international lending agencies, as well as private sector firms, who engage in international trade, have long been concerned with detecting and determining the magnitude of abnormal pricing in international trade. To detect such abnormal pricings, we present a framework analyzing millions of import/export transactions between the U.S. and Russia. The objectives of this study are to estimate the economic impact of over-invoiced/under-invoiced Russian imports/exports from/to the U.S. and to determine if capital movement/capital flight through trade is due to money laundering, tax evasion or some sort of portfolio consideration. Our results lead us to conclude that capital movement through trade in this case can be attributed to either money laundering and/or tax evasion.