On the theory of macroeconomic policy

Summary Jan Tinbergen originated the theory of policy in the 1950s. Here I apply it to contemporary macroeconomics. The two standard instruments of short-run demand management cannot achieve the two usual targets, full employment and price stability. With respect to those goals, these two instruments are collinear, except for small and transient effects on foreign exchange rates. But the mix of fiscal and monetary policies, relative to one another, does have important effects on the composition of national output, as between investment and consumption.I point out that policy-makers, like portfolio managers, should diversify the instruments they use when they are uncertain of their effects. I discuss some pitfalls in the empirical estimation of policy effects, especially possible misinterpretations of simple correlations, and I note that policy rules cannot be invariant to changes in macroeconomic structure. I argue that policy rules should involve responses to new information and in practice allow discretion. Finally, I suggest that Tinbergen's theory of policy needs to be extended to policy coordination among nations.Third Tinbergen Lecture delivered on October 20, 1989, in Utrecht for the Royal Netherlands Economic Association.     

Creating Shopper Value: Co-Creation Roles,In-Store Self-Service Technology Use,and Value Differentiation

This study examines how retailers can use self-service technologies (SST) to increase shopper satisfaction. Using a survey of 188 consumers of a new self-service kiosk launch within a convenience-store (c-store) setting, we examine how such retailers might influence shopper's perceptions of value by better involving customers in the service delivery experience. Our proposed model links classic service operations and marketing design insights to the service-dominant logic perspective of service value co-creation. We find that shoppers perceive enhanced value creation from the new SST when they feel comfortable in their roles and the surrounding service design supports those roles.     

Determinacy in the Linear Model: Gauss to Bose and Koopmans

Gauss showed that least squares fails to produce a unique solution only when the problem is indeterminate. This note considers his argument and the notion of indeterminacy underlying it. It also relates the argument to twentieth-century discussions of estimability and identifiability.     

Doing Least Squares: Perspectives from Gauss and Yule

Gauss introduced a procedure for calculating least squares estimates and their precisions. Yule introduced a new system of notation adapted to correlation analysis. This paper describes these formalisms and compares them with the matrix and vector space formalisms used in modern regression analysis.     

Access (Not) Denied: The Impact of Financial, Human, and Cultural Capital on Entrepreneurial Entryin the United States

Entrepreneurship contributes to business dynamics in all economies, and the individual benefits of starting a business are clear. Nonetheless, access to business start-ups may not be available to all people because of resource constraints. Using a unique new data set for the United States, we examine the relative importance of three forms of resources in pursuing start-up ventures: financial, human, and cultural capital. Our analysis of the Panel Study of Entrepreneurial Dynamics shows that neither financial nor cultural capital resources are necessary conditions for entrepreneurial entry. By contrast, potential entrepreneurs gain significant advantages if they possess high levels of human capital. Specifically, advanced education and managerial experience are significantly positively associated with entrepreneurial entry. Our findings suggest that attempts at entering entrepreneurship, at least in the short-term, may be increasing, as opportunities to acquire human capital are becoming more widespread.     

The Great Compression of the 1940s: The Public versus the Private Sector

Between 1940 and 1950 wage differentials narrowed substantially, a phenomenon that economic historians have called the “Great Compression.” This paper dis-aggregates the Great Compression into changes within and between the public and private sectors. We show that wage differentials declined in the public sector as well as in the private sector; had the public sector decline not taken place, the Great Compression would have been substantially smaller. In this regard, the experience of the 1940s stands in stark contrast with that of the past two decades, during which a relatively rigid public sector wage structure has dampened overall increases in wage inequality.     

Out of sight but not out of mind: Why failure to account for left truncation biases research on failure rates

We note at least three major issues in entrepreneurship theory that can be clarified by studying the survival chances of new ventures: the extent to which entrepreneurs are so constrained by initial founding conditions that they are unable to learn; the degree to which heterogeneity and innovative capabilities are lost due to the failure of new ventures; and the imprinting effects of new ventures' early days on their subsequent development. However, previous research on these issues has been inconclusive because of problems in research design and data analysis. In this paper, we shed light on new venture failure rates by assessing the validity and generalizability of previous findings. We argue that research using registration data to study new ventures is very likely to generate biased results and that research attempting to track new ventures from a very early stage can still suffer from selection bias due to left truncation. Using a sample of new ventures from the Panel Study of Entrepreneurial Dynamics II, we provide evidence for the extent of such biases. We offer a statistical solution to left truncation that can be easily applied in widely used statistical programs.     

A research agenda for disaster entrepreneurship

This paper addresses questions raised by Storr, Haeffele-Balch and Grube in their book Community Revival in the Wake of Disaster: Lessons in Local Entrepreneurship (2015). I review the reasons why the book is timely, especially the rising number and costs of disasters globally and the shifting norms on the role of government in disaster management. Social capital serves as a critical engine for resilience to crisis, and I move to demonstrate its importance in the mitigation and recovery stages. Then, I raise a research agenda based on their writings, focusing on building quantitative evidence to match the qualitative data already gathered by the authors. Specifically, I focus on testing claims about the definition and density of entrepreneurs, the role of polycentricity, and the public policy pools that would build entrepreneurial talent in vulnerable communities.