Intercountry feedback and spillover effects within the international supply and use framework: a Bayesian perspective*

This paper proposes a new framework for the estimation of product-level global and interregional feedback and spillover (FS) factor multipliers. The framework is directly based on interregional supply and use tables (SUTs) that could be rectangular and gives a possibility of taking account of the inherent input–output data uncertainty problems. A Bayesian econometric approach is applied to the framework using the first version of international SUTs in the World Input–Output Database. The obtained estimates of the global and intercountry FS output effects are discussed and presented at the world, country and product levels for the period of 1995–2009.     

Ownership relations in the presence of cross-shareholding

The direct ownership structure in a sector can be readily obtained from data on shareholding. Due to cross-shareholding, however, the true ownership structure may be hidden by a complex network of indirect relations. In studying the property structure, two important aspects are the size of the relations between primary owners (e.g. individuals) and secondary owners (e.g. companies), and the distance between them. The distance is obtained from the average number of secondary owners via whom the relation runs. As an empirical application, we study the banking sector in the Czech Republic, where also the relation between distance and separation of dividend and control rights is discussed.      

A NOTE ON THE GRAS METHOD

The GRAS method as presented by Junius and Oosterhaven [Junius, T. and J. Oosterhaven (2003) The Solution of Updating or Regionalizing a Matrix with Both Positive and Negative Elements. Economic Systems Research, 15, 87–96] assumes that every row and every column of a matrix to be balanced has at least one positive element. This might not necessarily be true in practice, in particular, when dealing with large-scale input–ouput tables, supply and use tables, social accounting matrices, or, for that matter, any other matrix. In this short note we relax this assumption and make available our MATLAB program for anyone interested in matrix GRASing. The same issue arises in the presentations of the KRAS method [Lenzen, M., B. Gallego and R. Wood (2009) Matrix Balancing Under Conflicting Information. Economic Systems Research, 21, 23–44] and the SUT–RAS method [Temurshoev, U. and M.P. Timmer (2011) Joint Estimation of Supply and Use Tables. Papers in Regional Science, 90, 863–882], which should be accordingly accounted for in their empirical applications.     

PROJECTION OF SUPPLY AND USE TABLES: METHODS AND THEIR EMPIRICAL ASSESSMENT

We present eight existing projection methods and test their relative performance in estimating Supply and Use tables (SUTs) of the Netherlands and Spain. Some of the methods presented have received little attention in the literature, and some have been slightly revised to better deal with negative elements and preserve the signs of original matrix entries. We find that (G)RAS and the methods proposed by Harthoorn and van Dalen (1987 Harthoorn, R. and J. van Dalen (1987) On the Adjustment of Tables with Lagrange Multipliers. NA-024. Central Bureau of Statistics, The Netherlands, National Accounts Research Division  [Google Scholar]) and Kuroda (1988 Kuroda, M. 1988. “A Method of Estimation for the Updating Transaction Matrix in the Input–Output Relationships”. In Statistical Data Bank Systems. Socio-Economic database and model building in Japan, Edited by: Uno, K. and Shishido, S. Amsterdam: North Holland, 43–56.  [Google Scholar]) produce the best estimates for the data in question. Their relative success also suggests the stability of ratios of larger transactions.