Credit risk analysis with creditor’s option to extend maturities

We present a Merton (J Finance, 1974)-type structural model of credit risk in which the borrower firm refinances its debt, there is cost for bankruptcy, and the creditor has an option to extend the date of maturity of debt if the firm defaults. We show that a solution exists in such a model and in that solution the creditor has incentive to extend maturity to avoid bankruptcy cost. We solve the model numerically and argue that such maturity extension option for the creditor can have substantial impact on the debt and stock values of the firm.     

What is required for greener supplier selection? A literature review and conceptual model development

This paper examines the existing literature on green supplier selection. In total, 60 articles are reviewed, all published in peer-reviewed journals between 1991 and 2011. The articles are analyzed in terms of several general variables such as type of research and theoretical viewpoint, as well as more specific variables such as the supply chain position considered, stages of the supplier selection process studied, and the perspective taken on environmental criteria. The main findings are threefold. First, analytical research, focusing on developing normative decision models for the final stage in green supplier selection is clearly most dominant, employing a wide range of techniques. Second, empirical research is less prominent and generally lacks a clear theoretical background. Third, very little conceptual research has been done linking green supplier selection to an organization's strategy. Research on green supplier selection is highly fragmented and in danger of overemphasizing the technical aspects of supplier selection. Based on this review of the articles, a conceptual model of green supplier selection is presented, aimed at integrating the different dimensions of green supplier selection and identifying directions for future research.     

The association between smoking cessation outpatient visits and total medical costs: a retrospective,observational analysis of Japanese employee-based public health insurance data

Aims: The short-term effects of smoking cessation (SC) on overall healthcare costs are unclear. This study aimed to compare the short-term medical costs between patients with SC outpatient visits (SCOVs) and those without SCOVs, consisting of SCOV itself and overall medical costs.

Materials and methods: This study is a retrospective, observational study using a Japanese employee-based health insurance claims database (January 1, 2005–December 31, 2013). It analyzed individuals who were registered as smokers based on their medical checkup details. It compared the per-patient-per-year (PPPY) medical costs for male smokers who made ≥1 claim for SCOVs with those who made no claims. We also assessed whether the number of SCOVs by male and female smokers impacted medical costs. The Index Year was the year after the first SCOV claim and that after the first registration as a smoker (non-SCOV group). Medical costs were calculated using regression analysis and adjusted for baseline costs.

Results: In Index Year ?1, PPPY medical costs for male smokers were ～USD 323.01 (JPY 36,500, as of November 2017) higher in the SCOV (n?=?5,608) vs the non-SCOV (n?=?81,721) group; however, by Year 6 the costs were similar. From Year 4–6, PPPY medical costs for SCOVs were lower than those in the adjusted non-SCOV group. For 2,576 male and female smokers in the SCOV group, the average rates of increasing medical costs before and after the SCOV for 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 SCOVs made were 58%, 44%, 50%, 41%, and 34%, respectively.

Limitations: The database includes limited data on individuals >65 years. Only SCOVs based on claims data and not on other outcomes were assessed.

Conclusions: Medical costs declined in the short-term following the first SCOV. Attendance at a greater number of SCOVs was associated with a lower increase ratio of medical costs.     

Examining the association of smoking with work productivity and associated costs in Japan

Aims: Smoking is associated with significant health and economic burden globally, including an increased risk of many leading causes of mortality and significant impairments in work productivity. This burden is attenuated by successful tobacco cessation, including reduced risk of disease and improved productivity. The current study aimed to show the benefits of smoking cessation for workplace productivity and decreased costs associated with loss of work impairment.

Materials and methods: The data source was the 2011 Japan National Health and Wellness Survey (n?=?30,000). Respondents aged 20–64 were used in the analyses (n?=?23,738) and were categorized into: current smokers, former smokers, and never smokers. Generalized linear models controlling for demographics and health characteristics examined the relationship of smoking status with the Work Productivity and Activity Impairment questionnaire (WPAI-GH) endpoints, as well as estimated indirect costs.

Results: Current smokers reported the greatest overall work impairment, including absenteeism (i.e. work time missed) and presenteeism (i.e. impairment while at work); however, after controlling for covariates, there were no significant differences between former smokers and never smokers on overall work impairment. Current smokers and former smokers had greater activity impairment (i.e. impairment in daily activities) than never smokers. Current smokers reported the highest indirect costs (i.e. costs associated with work impairment); however, after controlling for covariates, there were no significant differences between former smokers and never smokers on indirect costs.

Limitations and conclusions: Smoking exerts a large health and economic burden; however, smoking cessation attenuates this burden. The current study provides important further evidence of this association, with former smokers appearing statistically indistinguishable from never smokers in terms of work productivity loss and associated indirect costs among a large representative sample of Japanese workers. This report highlights the workplace benefits of smoking cessation across productivity markers and cost-savings.     

Budget impact analysis of long acting injection for schizophrenia in Japan

Abstract

Aims: To estimate the budgetary impact of providing additional reimbursement for long acting injections for schizophrenia patients in psychiatric hospital settings in Japan to improve patient outcomes in schizophrenia.

Methods: Budget impact analysis of change in reimbursement policy using a prevalence-based model over a five-year time horizon. The results are reported as net change in expenditure and consequent cost/savings in Japanese yen at the time of analysis.

Results: The budget impact analysis shows that an increase in reimbursement for LAIs could lead to cumulative savings of an estimated 36.6 billion JPY over five years. These savings result from a decrease in hospitalization costs and an increased usage of LAI (assumed to be 10%). Based on the sensitivity analysis, the saving estimates are most sensitive to change in market share of generic and branded oral antipsychotics.

Limitations: Historical data were used to estimate the future costs of drug and hospitalization; however, it is not the best predictor of future, hence a source of potential bias. A good level of treatment adherence with oral antipsychotics was assumed, which is generally not the case; therefore, we might have overestimated the effectiveness of oral atypical antipsychotics. Additionally, the drug cost due to reimbursement might have also been overestimated because in clinical setting, the increase of LAI use may not have reached 10% of the market share. Lastly, patients’ behavior was derived from models, which may have loosely approximated the reality.

Conclusions: An additional reimbursement for the use of LAI in schizophrenia patients is likely to be cost neutral/cost saving and should be considered as a policy option to improve patient outcomes and budget sustainability.     

A comment on: “Efficient propagation of shocks and the optimal return on money”

Lotteries are introduced into Cavalcanti and Erosa (2008) [2], a version of Trejos and Wright (1995) [4] with aggregate shocks. Lotteries improve welfare and eliminate the two notable features of the optimum with deterministic trades: over-production and history-dependence. Moreover, the optimum can be supported by buyer take-it-or-leave-it offers.     

Cost minimization analysis of beta-blocker at the time of CT imaging for suspected of coronary heart disease in Japan

Objectives:

To conduct a cost-minimization analysis of landiolol for CT diagnosis of coronary heart diseases in patients with tachycardia in Japan.

Methods:

A decision-tree model was constructed to analyze costs from the healthcare payer’s perspective. Drug costs and diagnosis costs, computer tomography coronary angiography (CTCA), and coronary angiography (CAG), are adopted to the model. Landiolol is administered only to slow the heart rate to take CT images appropriately. Since some trials proved that there was no difference between landiolol and placebo in terms of efficacy and safety, this study conducted cost-minimization analysis. Of those suspected of coronary heart diseases, 22.5% are thought to be taking beta-blockers. The success rates for CT scanning for landiolol and placebo, derived from domestic trial data, were 81.4% (96/118, 77.8–84.9%) and 54.2% (64/118, 49.7–58.8%). Patients who failed to take a CT image were thought to take CAG. The healthcare cost was derived from a Japanese fee schedule. Costs of landiolol, CT imaging, and CAG are JPY2634 (USD1?=?JPY100, as of November 20, 2013), JPY38,116, and JPY101,322, respectively. The positive rate for CAG, derived from domestic trial data, was 37.1% (33/89, 32.0–42.2%). Various sensitivity analyses, both univariate and probabilistic ones, were conducted.

Results:

In the base case analysis, expected costs per patient for landiolol and placebo were JPY78,956 and JPY82,232, respectively. In budget impact analysis, 81,062 patients are eligible for landiolol and it can save JPY266million for whole patients. Sensitivity analyses suggested the robustness of the results.

Limitations:

This study did not consider any adverse effects in the decision-tree model. This model was developed especially for measuring the cost-saving effect of landiolol, through decreasing the number of patients who require CAG, due to imaging failure.

Conclusions:

Landiolol for CTCA diagnosis in patients suspected of coronary heart disease with tachycardia is thought to be cost saving.     

Evaluating the cost-effectiveness of secukinumab in moderate-to-severe psoriasis: a Japanese perspective

Aim: To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of secukinumab, a fully human anti-interleukin-17A monoclonal antibody, compared to other clinically used biologics (adalimumab, infliximab, and ustekinumab) in Japan for the treatment of moderate-to-severe psoriasis from the healthcare system (total costs) and patient co-payment (using different frequencies of drug purchase) perspectives.

Methods: A decision-tree (first year)/Markov model (subsequent years), with an annual cycle, was developed. The model adopted a 5-year time horizon. Efficacy inputs were obtained from a mixed-treatment comparison analysis, and other model inputs were collected from published literature and local Japanese sources. Model outcomes included quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) in terms of cost per QALY gained. The annual discounting rate of 2% was applied to both costs and outcomes.

Results: Results for the healthcare system perspective showed that secukinumab had the highest number of quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) (4.07) vs other biologics, dominated ustekinumab and infliximab, and the ICER of secukinumab compared to adalimumab was ¥8,418,222/QALY gained. In the patient co-payment perspective with the monthly purchase of drugs, ustekinumab had the lowest co-payment cost, followed by infliximab, adalimumab, and secukinumab. In the patient co-payment perspective with a once every 3 months purchase of secukinumab and adalimumab, the co-payment costs of secukinumab, adalimumab, and ustekinumab became comparable, and infliximab had the highest co-payment cost.

Limitations: Only short-term efficacy data was modeled, as there was a lack of data on long-term outcomes. Treatment sequencing was restricted to first-line biologic treatment. Drop-out rates for comparators were assumed to be equivalent to secukinumab in the absence of available data.

Conclusions: Secukinumab is a cost-efficient treatment for moderate-to-severe psoriasis, providing greater health outcomes to patients at lower total costs compared to infliximab and ustekinumab, as well as comparable patient co-payment relative to other biologic treatments.     

Cost-effectiveness analysis of treatment regimens with obinutuzumab plus chemotherapy in Japan for untreated follicular lymphoma patients

Abstract

Aims

Obinutuzumab (GA101; G) is a new treatment for follicular lymphoma (FL) that is anticipated to have greater efficacy than the current treatment, rituximab (R). The aim of this study was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of G plus chemotherapy (G?+?Chemo) against that of R plus chemotherapy (R?+?Chemo) for patients in Japan with previously untreated FL.     

Willingness to pay for QALY: perspectives and contexts in Japan

Abstract

Objectives: Theoretically, willingness-to-pay (WTP) for quality-adjusted life years (QALY) can vary depending on social and personal preferences and on ex-ante and ex-post settings. However, empirical investigations into the theoretical differences are lacking. In Japan, setting the threshold has been controversial since a pilot project to implement health technology assessments (HTA) launched in 2016. The study aim is to estimate WTP values for one additional QALY from different perspectives, health statuses, and contexts to confirm the difficulty in setting a uniform price threshold using WTP.

Methods: More than 1,000 respondents representing a cross-section of the Japanese population answered each of nine questionnaire decks in an online panel. WTP values were estimated on three different perspectives (personal, social, and socially inclusive) and on two contexts (ex-ante and ex-post). This study primarily used the non-parametric spike model based on double-bounded dichotomous choice (DBDC) settings to obtain the conditional WTP values.

Results: WTP per QALY was higher in the severe health status than in the moderate health status from all perspectives. Respondents from the socially inclusive perspective estimated the highest WTP value for a new drug. Respondents were also asked about life-threatening diseases in ex-post and ex-ante. The WTP value in ex-ante was higher than in ex-post, and demographic factors affecting the WTP were different in both situations. The various WTP values were obtained from these surveys.

Limitations: The analysis was based on data collected from an internet panel, which could be biased. There is also a risk that respondents answered the questionnaire differently if asked in everyday situations.

Conclusion: Use of a uniform price threshold may not be appropriate in policy settings, because it may not reflect diverse preferences based on different situations, such as disease type and severity. Setting a price threshold as Japan institutes an HTA system requires further research.