Estimating the interest rate semi-elasticity of the demand for money in low interest rate environments

We estimate the time profile of the interest rate semi-elasticity of the demand for money that is theoretically derived from a money-in-the-utility-function (MIUF) model. This semi-elasticity increases to infinity as interest rates fall to zero. Therefore, the use of this semi-elasticity has an advantage when examining the highly interest-elastic demand for money in low interest rate environments. Using Japanese and U.S. data, we find that the semi-elasticity increases exponentially in low interest rate environments. For example, the highest value of the semi-elasticity in Japan is observed in 2005, and is approximately 350 times larger than the value in 1990.     

Testing for volatility spillover between the British pound and the euro

This paper examines volatility spillover between two nominal U.S. dollar exchange rates: the British pound and the euro. Using the residual cross-correlation approach, we observe that the euro Granger-causes the British pound in variance, whereas the British pound does not Granger-cause the euro in variance. Our findings support unidirectional volatility spillover from the euro to the British pound; thus, the euro volatility has a one-sided impact on the British pound volatility. Moreover, the findings suggest that euro traders succeed in the efficient processing of information derived from the British pound.     

The association between smoking cessation outpatient visits and total medical costs: a retrospective,observational analysis of Japanese employee-based public health insurance data

Aims: The short-term effects of smoking cessation (SC) on overall healthcare costs are unclear. This study aimed to compare the short-term medical costs between patients with SC outpatient visits (SCOVs) and those without SCOVs, consisting of SCOV itself and overall medical costs.

Materials and methods: This study is a retrospective, observational study using a Japanese employee-based health insurance claims database (January 1, 2005–December 31, 2013). It analyzed individuals who were registered as smokers based on their medical checkup details. It compared the per-patient-per-year (PPPY) medical costs for male smokers who made ≥1 claim for SCOVs with those who made no claims. We also assessed whether the number of SCOVs by male and female smokers impacted medical costs. The Index Year was the year after the first SCOV claim and that after the first registration as a smoker (non-SCOV group). Medical costs were calculated using regression analysis and adjusted for baseline costs.

Results: In Index Year ?1, PPPY medical costs for male smokers were ～USD 323.01 (JPY 36,500, as of November 2017) higher in the SCOV (n?=?5,608) vs the non-SCOV (n?=?81,721) group; however, by Year 6 the costs were similar. From Year 4–6, PPPY medical costs for SCOVs were lower than those in the adjusted non-SCOV group. For 2,576 male and female smokers in the SCOV group, the average rates of increasing medical costs before and after the SCOV for 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 SCOVs made were 58%, 44%, 50%, 41%, and 34%, respectively.

Limitations: The database includes limited data on individuals >65 years. Only SCOVs based on claims data and not on other outcomes were assessed.

Conclusions: Medical costs declined in the short-term following the first SCOV. Attendance at a greater number of SCOVs was associated with a lower increase ratio of medical costs.     

Examining the association of smoking with work productivity and associated costs in Japan

Aims: Smoking is associated with significant health and economic burden globally, including an increased risk of many leading causes of mortality and significant impairments in work productivity. This burden is attenuated by successful tobacco cessation, including reduced risk of disease and improved productivity. The current study aimed to show the benefits of smoking cessation for workplace productivity and decreased costs associated with loss of work impairment.

Materials and methods: The data source was the 2011 Japan National Health and Wellness Survey (n?=?30,000). Respondents aged 20–64 were used in the analyses (n?=?23,738) and were categorized into: current smokers, former smokers, and never smokers. Generalized linear models controlling for demographics and health characteristics examined the relationship of smoking status with the Work Productivity and Activity Impairment questionnaire (WPAI-GH) endpoints, as well as estimated indirect costs.

Results: Current smokers reported the greatest overall work impairment, including absenteeism (i.e. work time missed) and presenteeism (i.e. impairment while at work); however, after controlling for covariates, there were no significant differences between former smokers and never smokers on overall work impairment. Current smokers and former smokers had greater activity impairment (i.e. impairment in daily activities) than never smokers. Current smokers reported the highest indirect costs (i.e. costs associated with work impairment); however, after controlling for covariates, there were no significant differences between former smokers and never smokers on indirect costs.

Limitations and conclusions: Smoking exerts a large health and economic burden; however, smoking cessation attenuates this burden. The current study provides important further evidence of this association, with former smokers appearing statistically indistinguishable from never smokers in terms of work productivity loss and associated indirect costs among a large representative sample of Japanese workers. This report highlights the workplace benefits of smoking cessation across productivity markers and cost-savings.     

Budget impact analysis of long acting injection for schizophrenia in Japan

Abstract

Aims: To estimate the budgetary impact of providing additional reimbursement for long acting injections for schizophrenia patients in psychiatric hospital settings in Japan to improve patient outcomes in schizophrenia.

Methods: Budget impact analysis of change in reimbursement policy using a prevalence-based model over a five-year time horizon. The results are reported as net change in expenditure and consequent cost/savings in Japanese yen at the time of analysis.

Results: The budget impact analysis shows that an increase in reimbursement for LAIs could lead to cumulative savings of an estimated 36.6 billion JPY over five years. These savings result from a decrease in hospitalization costs and an increased usage of LAI (assumed to be 10%). Based on the sensitivity analysis, the saving estimates are most sensitive to change in market share of generic and branded oral antipsychotics.

Limitations: Historical data were used to estimate the future costs of drug and hospitalization; however, it is not the best predictor of future, hence a source of potential bias. A good level of treatment adherence with oral antipsychotics was assumed, which is generally not the case; therefore, we might have overestimated the effectiveness of oral atypical antipsychotics. Additionally, the drug cost due to reimbursement might have also been overestimated because in clinical setting, the increase of LAI use may not have reached 10% of the market share. Lastly, patients’ behavior was derived from models, which may have loosely approximated the reality.

Conclusions: An additional reimbursement for the use of LAI in schizophrenia patients is likely to be cost neutral/cost saving and should be considered as a policy option to improve patient outcomes and budget sustainability.     

A Microsimulation Model for Projections of Japanese Socioeconomic Structure

The Integrated Analytical Model for Household Simulation (INAHSIM) is a microsimulation model for the Japanese population that was first developed in the 1980s as a tool for household simulation. This study attempted to improve the conventional INAHSIM in order to construct a more comprehensive alternative that incorporates a larger number of social and economic elements. It also overcame the problem for simulation—the lack of kinship relations in the initial population—by imputing parent-child relationships between those parents and children who do not live together. This paper provides an overview of INAHSIM and adds certain details of the imputation that is essential for simulating the life event of “adult children resettling to care for their aged parents.” In addition, I will show the importance of the said life event in Japan by comparing the difference in the family type of elderly people between its future distribution with or without this life event. Finally, I will discuss the future possibilities for research on microsimulation models that will play an important role in policy making.     

Dynamic Microsimulation Modeling for Policy Support: An Application to Belgium and possibilities for Japan

This paper provides an overview of dynamic microsimulation modeling as well as its recent developments. It then discusses in detail a recent trend in microsimulation research, which uses alignment methodologies to simulate microsimulation models in conjunction with macro-economic models. The goal of this ??top down-integrated approach?? is to jointly assess the budgetary costs of demographic ageing and pension reform, as well as their consequences on the adequacy of pensions. This paper then discusses, also in detail, how such an integrated approach using shared demographic and macroeconomic assumptions has been developed in Belgium. It describes the dynamic microsimulation model MIDAS, highlighting how it aligns to the simulation results of the semi-aggregate model MALTESE. Finally, this paper suggests that the joint assessment using the joint application of two similar models might be useful to assess pension reform in the Japanese context.     

Solving/understanding/evaluating the e-waste challenge through transdisciplinarity?

Transdisciplinarity has been accepted as a promising research approach to respond to complex real-world problems such as electronic waste (e-waste). Already one of the fastest growing waste streams, e-waste is a sustainability challenge that shadows the pervasive uses of electronic devices in contemporary society. Previous studies have not only shown the toxicity and risks inherent in the hazardous waste but also economic value generated from its reuse and recycling and the environment justice implications of the existing transboundary movement of e-waste to developing countries. Responding to this multifaceted issue requires a transdisciplinary attempt at synthesis understandings, if not solutions. This paper reflects on an educational experiment to encourage disciplinary boundary crossing in the e-waste community through a summer school. The NVMP-StEP E-waste Summer School housed young researchers from diverse disciplines with a common research interest in e-waste. The event is evaluated against three sets of criteria that underpin successful transdisciplinary ventures: (i) clear, problem-oriented goals, (ii) careful preparation, institutional support and competent management, and (iii) communication and collaboration. Based on understandings and insights gained from the participation in the Summer School, participant surveys, and communications with organizers, six recommendations are outlined to help making similar events a better ground for transdisciplinarity in the future.     

The Effects of Proposals for Basic Pension Reform on the Income Distribution of the Elderly in Japan

The aging of the population in Japan is a serious problem, and the reform of the public pension scheme is a major political issue. Although the 2004 pension reform was enforced to ensure a sustainable pension system in such an aging society, people remain quite apprehensive about the pension system. Consequently, various sectors have created new proposals for pension reform to overcome these problems, and it has become a recent policy debate. The objective of this article is to prepare projections for the income distribution of households containing elderly people using the Japanese microsimulation model, INAHSIM (Integrated Analytical Model for Household Simulation), and to evaluate the effect of the proposals on the living standards of the elderly. According to the simulation results, the problem of very low pension amounts for the elderly does not appear to be growing. However, changes in co-resident families of the elderly, such as the increase in the number of people living alone, may cause a decline in their standard of living. The author points out the problems of the previously proposed reform plans and proposes an alternative reform plan based on the perspective used in this paper.