Analysis of sectoral credit default cycle dependency with wavelet networks: Evidence from Turkey

In this paper, we investigate the relationship between industrial production and sectoral credit defaults (non-performing loans ratio) cycle by wavelet network analysis in Turkey over the period January 2001–November 2007. We use feedforward neural network based wavelet decomposition to analyze the contemporaneous connection between industrial production cycles and sectoral credit default cycles at different time scales between 2 and 64 months. The main findings for Turkey indicates that industrial production cycles effect the sectoral credit default cycles at different time scales and thus indicate that the creditors should consider the multiscale sectoral cycles in order to minimize credit default rates.     

A systems approach to policy analysis and development planning: Construction sector in the Turkish 5-year development plans

In this study, we propose a new model for systems analysis ‘of’ policy and systems analysis ‘for’ policy with the example of construction sector in the Turkish 5-year development plans.Our proposed model—integrated development management model (IDMM)—is conceptually based on the principles of systems thinking and integrated management approach.We present and discuss the results of our work in which we extracted all construction-related policies and strategies from eight 5-year development plans and analyzed them using the IDMM. In the light of the analyses, we give several answers to the question: “Why did the development plans fail to meet their targets in Turkey?” We propose that any development plan has to have claritas–unitas–integritas–consonantia between the management levels (normative, strategic, and operational) and components (goals, structures, and behavior) of IDMM.The paper is the first work that brings the concepts of development planning and foresight together. In a complementary stance, the time of integrating foresight and development planning has come.     

Comparison of national foresight studies by integrated foresight management model

National foresight studies have become a common tool in the last decade of the 20th century. Despite the fact that a lot of comparative studies have been carried out to compare these projects, none of them has been capturing all dimensions and elements of foresight since a comprehensive definition of foresight was missing. The integrated foresight management model is an attempt to provide an integrated and holistic view about the impact of foresight on the management of the future. In this article, a checklist is proposed based on the integrated foresight management model to compare eight national foresight studies. Based on the results, the discussion about “generations” of foresight is revisited and a new definition of “generations” is proposed. The conceptual framework which is the integrated foresight management model and the derived checklist can be developed in the future by expanding the amount of data available for analysis and the number of independent experts to make this comparison.     

Systemic analysis of UK foresight results: Joint application of integrated management model and roadmapping

This paper proposes a new systems approach to foresight studies. The paper will first indicate the complex and conflicting nature of long-term decision-making process. Then, the need for systems approach will be highlighted by the analysis of 1995 UK Delphi survey results and the scenarios of 2000 UK foresight scenarios. The paper proposes two methodologies, namely Integrated Management Model (IMM) and Roadmapping, in order to overcome challenges introduced by the multidimensional characteristics and complex nature of foresight studies. Based on systemic approach, IMM offers a useful way of developing long-term normative policies and strategies and their transformations into actions by considering necessary changes in organizational structures and behaviors. In addition, roadmapping is used to capture, manipulate and manage information to decrease complexity in the foresight by constructing roadmaps. In the paper, IMM and roadmapping are employed first to analyze UK foresight results and then to develop a new methodology to formulate Delphi events and scenarios for the successful implementation of foresight. This paper also promotes the integrated use of foresight techniques such as scenarios and Delphi rather than one for another.     

Operationalization of space/time perspectives of individuals—Theory and empirical results from Turkey

The overall aim of the research is to provide an evaluation of differences in time and space perspectives of individuals in Turkey in order to understand the different approaches, perspectives or priorities that they may bring to futures studies.An empirical study aimed to collect information about the varying differences in time and space perspectives among participant individuals (undergraduate and PhD students at Yeditepe University and managers at Siemens-Turkey) and any other possible factors affecting the participants’ choices. Two sets of statements are generated representing the time and space perspectives of participants using the modified constructs found in the literature such as “Time Strata”, “Space-Time Graph”, and “Different Time Frames and Activities”.Our sample population of 185 individuals indicated a time horizon of 4.8 years and space horizon of 530 km. Majority of the sample population is observed to be concerned with issues that affect only their close environment over a short time period of “next week”, along with their larger geographical area as the “city”. A few of the sample population indicated to have a global perspective on time and space that can further reach into the future.Literature suggesting different individuals having different perspectives on time and space, depending on culture, past experience and the nature of the problems are instrumentalized in our study by relating it to the foresight tools and methodologies. Such varying perspectives may explain individuals/managers’ time and space horizon in which they think and act/execute.Based on the analysis of space/time preference of participant individuals, policy makers will benefit from incorporating the diversity of time and space dimensions into their strategic thought and national policy roadmaps.This exploratory study is comprised of the assessment of differing definitions and approaches to the future via individuals’ space and time perspectives. It aims to contribute to foresight methodologies and approaches, as well as bringing a significant impact on the quality and success of the national foresight project results.     

A systems approach to policy analysis and development planning: Construction sector in the Turkish 5-year development plans

In this study, we propose a new model for systems analysis ‘of’ policy and systems analysis ‘for’ policy with the example of construction sector in the Turkish 5-year development plans.Our proposed model—integrated development management model (IDMM)—is conceptually based on the principles of systems thinking and integrated management approach.We present and discuss the results of our work in which we extracted all construction-related policies and strategies from eight 5-year development plans and analyzed them using the IDMM. In the light of the analyses, we give several answers to the question: “Why did the development plans fail to meet their targets in Turkey?” We propose that any development plan has to have claritas-unitas-integritas-consonantia between the management levels (normative, strategic, and operational) and components (goals, structures, and behavior) of IDMM.The paper is the first work that brings the concepts of development planning and foresight together. In a complementary stance, the time of integrating foresight and development planning has come.     

Gender differences in macroeconomic expectations: evidence from Turkey

The aim of this study is to examine how men and women’s expectations differ about macroeconomic outlook. We examine whether there exist similarities or differences in men and women’s macroeconomic expectations. For this paper, 365 of Turkey’s leading business economists, strategists, portfolio managers and industry managers participated in a survey titled “Economic Expectations in Turkey for 2010.” The survey investigates gender differences in regards to four macroeconomic expectations; namely, inflation, unemployment, growth and exports. The survey participants are first classified according to their gender, and then their economic perceptions are analyzed. Initially, Kolmogorov–Smirnov statistics are implemented to test normality of data. Then, the Chi-square test of independence is used to compare macroeconomic expectations of men and women. The empirical findings show that macroeconomic expectations of males and females are not statistically different for inflation, unemployment, and exports. On the other hand, macroeconomic expectations of males and females are statistically different only for economic growth at a 10% level. The results indicate that gender is not one of the main determinants for macroeconomic expectations.     

Office Rent Determinants Utilising Factor Analysis—A Case Study for İstanbul

In recent studies, a wide range of variables has been suggested for modelling the variation in office rent. However, only a few of them are found to influence the explanatory power of the model significantly. Moreover, the significance of these variables varies from model to model, depending on the characteristics of the region or/and the model. It is well established that the regression model of complex phenomena do not perform well, unless the effects of all major determinants are adequately represented. It is also known that complex phenomena may involve a large number of variables, and linear regression models often becomes cumbersome as the number of variables increases. A practical solution to the problem may be to pre-select the significant variables, and leave the less influential ones out. An even better solution could be to include all or most variables, while incorporating the group effect of some variables into a reasonable number factor variables. This way, both the accuracy and practicality of the model can be sustained. Serving this purpose, ‘Factor Analysis’ has been employed in establishing the office rent model for the metropolitan area of ?stanbul. The results of four different versions of the model, using linear and non-linear regressions are discussed.