今年中国贸易顺差增速料将放缓

2007年中国贸易顺差上升近50％，达到创纪录的2620亿美元，但在去年最后3个月，进口增速均超过了出口增速，表明存在争议的外汇储备大幅上升期可能正渐近结束。     

Investigating the Pleasures of Sin: The Contingent Role of Arousal‐Seeking Disposition in Consumers' Evaluations of Vice and Virtue Product Offerings

Mixed bundles of vice and virtue are an increasingly important product category. However, many mixed bundles fail in the marketplace, and so it is important to examine how consumers evaluate such mixed bundles. This paper examines consumers' affective responses and consequent purchase evaluations for a mixed vice‐virtue bundle versus a pure vice product. Results of Study 1 show that purchase intentions are higher for a pure vice product versus a mixed product; also, increased purchase intentions are mediated by differences in arousal. Given that consumers differ in their arousal‐seeking dispositions, results of Studies 2 and 3 show that individual differences in arousal‐seeking moderate the relationship between product type (pure vice product vs. mixed product) and purchase intentions, with arousal‐seeking consumers preferring pure vice bundles, and arousal‐avoidant consumers preferring mixed bundles. This paper contributes to theory on mixed vice‐virtue bundles, and also provides pointers on how to better market mixed bundles.     

Trade,Growth, and Increasing Returns to Infrastructure: The Role of the Sophisticated Monopolist*

Equilibrium in international trade with increasing returns in infrastructure depends on whether the infrastructure provider is “naïve” or sophisticated. A monopolist produces infrastructure under decreasing cost using fixed equipment. Unlike similar work, we derive a unique closed‐economy equilibrium. In a small open economy, with “naïve” infrastructure provider(s), multiple equilibria obtain. The industrial export potential of the economy depends on unexhausted economies of scale, and equilibria are possible where manufactures are exported despite an autarky price higher than the world price. With a sophisticated infrastructure provider, even an open economy has a unique equilibrium, which, at least as long as economies of scale are unexhausted, also involves more industrialization than the “naïve” equilibria. Access to the unlimited world market is necessary for significant industrialization but is not sufficient: one may also require “Schumpeterian” entrepreneurs, monopolists with a panoramic vision of the economy and of their catalytic role in it.     

How artificial intelligence will change the future of marketing

Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science - In the future, artificial intelligence (AI) is likely to substantially change both marketing strategies and customer behaviors. Building from not only...     

How product–cause fit and donation quantifier interact in cause-related marketing (CRM) settings: evidence of the cue congruency effect

We are the first to examine the joint impact of product–cause fit and donation quantifier in the cause-related marketing (CRM) domain. We show that these two CRM cues interact in a unique manner, reflecting the cue congruency effect. Specifically, congruent combinations of these two cues result in high purchase intentions when the cues individually have positive effects. In all other cases, however, purchase intentions are low. Furthermore, we identify moderators of the above cue congruency effect. In Study 1, we show that the cue congruency effect is moderated by product-type, evidencing only in more hedonic product contexts. In Study 2, we show that the above cue congruency effect is moderated by purchase-type, evidencing in planned purchase contexts, but reversing in impulse purchase contexts. We discuss the process mechanism driving these effects, specify the contribution of this research for CRM, cue congruency and impulse purchases, and outline implications for practice.     

Pirates and fishermen: Is less patrolling always bad?

Motivated by the Somali fishermen-pirates, I explore the time allocation decision of potential pirates between piracy and an alternative non-violent occupation, fishing, when the returns of both piracy and fishing are sensitive to patrolling intensity. For a range of parameters, the static model yields multiple equilibria, an “efficient” one with no patrolling and low piracy, a less efficient equilibrium with intermediate levels of both piracy and patrolling and a highly inefficient high-patrolling high-piracy equilibrium. Analyzing the dynamic analogue, I obtain the surprising result that sufficiently low patrolling can be a good strategy.     

Economic Reform,Skill Formation and Foreign Capital

Does trade liberalisation promote skill formation and positively influence the inflow of foreign capital in an economy? How do incentives offered to foreign capital affect skill formation and skilled‐unskilled wage inequality? Is liberalisation of agricultural exports counterproductive to skill formation and foreign capital inflow in the economy? We try to capture these relationships between foreign capital and skill formation in a small open economy facing various exogenous shocks. Among other results, we show that import liberalisation increases skill formation and the inflow of foreign capital in the country. We explore the evolving state of the skilled‐unskilled wage gap in a regime of greater skill formation.     

Introduction and Overview

As one of globalisation's most visible dimensions, foreign direct investment (FDI) is central to the prospects for developing countries in the world economy. Key issues include the direction of causation between FDI and growth, the potential role of the new information and communication technologies in attracting FDI flows (as well as the role of FDI in building such infrastructure), the process of skill acquisition associated with FDI, and the specific problems that Africa faces in attracting more FDI. Achievement of the Millennium Development Goals requires very fast growth in output and employment if global poverty is to be halved, and FDI could play a very positive role if its development benefits are maximised.