Comparative Advantage in Demand: Experimental Evidence of Preferences for Genetically Modified Food in the United States and European Union

The United States (US) exports more than US$6 billion in agricultural commodities to the European Union(EU) each year, but one issue carries the potential to diminish this trade: use of biotechnology in food production. The EU has adopted more stringent policies towards biotechnology than the US. Understanding differences in European and American policies towards genetically modified (GM) foods requires a greater understanding of consumers’ attitudes and preferences. This paper reports results from the first large‐scale, cross‐Atlantic study to analyse consumer demand for genetically modified food in a non‐hypothetical market environment. We strongly reject the frequent if convenient assumption in trade theory that consumer preferences are identical across countries: the median level of compensation demanded by English and French consumers to consume a GM food is found to be more than twice that in any of the US locations. Results have important implications for trade theory, which typically focuses on differences in specialization, comparative advantage and factor endowments across countries, and for on‐going trade disputes at the World Trade Organization.     

Income distribution, borrowing constraints and redistributive policies

This paper sheds light on the relationship between income inequality and redistributive policies and provides possible guidance in the specification of empirical tests of such a relationship. We model a two-period economy where capital markets are imperfect and agents vote over the level of taxation to finance redistributive policies that enhance future productivity. In this context, we show that the pivotal voter is not necessarily the agent (class) with median income. In particular, the poor, who are more likely to be liquidity constrained, may form a coalition with the rich and vote for low redistribution. The effects of an increase in income inequality on the level of redistribution turn out to depend on whether the increase in inequality is concentrated among the poor or the middle class. Empirical results from a panel of 22 OECD countries provide preliminary evidence consistent with our main theoretical implications.     

Financial Liberalization, Property Rights, and Growth in an Overlapping-Generations Model

Using an endogenous growth model in which countries differ with respect to property rights protection, the paper analyzes the growth and welfare effects of removing capital controls, and studies the political support for a reform which improves the quality of property rights. When these are poorly protected, liberalization of capital movements may foster growth in the short run but eliminates it in the long run. The removal of capital controls may benefit agents at the time of liberalization, hurting future generations. Ceteris paribus , political support for a reform of property rights is stronger in the closed than in the open economy.     

Self-help Groups and Income Generation in the Informal Settlements of Nairobi

The aim of this paper is to understand the functioning and thescope of self-help groups in the informal settlements of urbanareas as a means of generating income for poor households. Ituses a unique data set collected by the author in 1999 surveyingall individual group members from several informal settlementsin Nairobi. It studies the individual determinants of earningswithin groups and relates group composition to various indicatorsof group functioning. Sex, age and ethnic identity are amongthe most important determinants of individual reliance on groupincome and of access to group loans. Heterogeneity in earningsamong members is shown to reduce their ability to borrow fromthe group as a whole but not from each other. The impact ofethnic and other forms of heterogeneity on the division of labour,choice of compensation schemes, sanctioning technology and recruitmentcriteria is also described.     

The long breadth of cities: revisiting worldwide urbanization patterns, 1950–2030

ABSTRACT

A comparative analysis of population dynamics worldwide contributes to profile distinctive demographic and economic trajectories of urban growth, discriminating processes of settlement concentration or dispersion under sequential cycles of urbanization. However, a wide-ranging characterization of urban cycles based on demographic dynamics worldwide is still missing. The present work is aimed at filling such a gap analysing long-term changes (1950–2030) in annual population growth rate of 1691 urban agglomerations with more than 300,000 inhabitants in 74 world countries. Results of this study indicate that metropolitan growth worldwide was associated with largely variable rates of population growth, highly positive before 2000 and progressively reducing over recent decades. Despite important differences at continental (and country) scale, demographic expansion of urban agglomerations showed two contrasting phases with a break point in the 1980s denoting a progressive reduction in spatial heterogeneity of population growth rates and a moderate slowdown in demographic dynamics. Intensity of urban expansion and spatial heterogeneity in population growth rates across metropolitan agglomerations evidences a trade-off between fast and slow demographic dynamics. These findings can be better understood to support theories of sequential city growth, making a suitable contribution to policy making, especially in countries where urban population is expanding more rapidly.     

Nowcasting global economic growth: A factor‐augmented mixed‐frequency approach

Assessing accurately global economic conditions is a great challenge for economists. The International Monetary Fund proposes within its periodic World Economic Outlook report a measure of the global GDP annual growth, that is generally considered as the benchmark nowcast by macroeconomists. In this paper, we put forward an alternative approach to provide monthly nowcasts of the annual global growth rate. Our approach builds on a Factor‐Augmented MIxed DAta Sampling (FA‐MIDAS) model that enables: (i) to account for a large monthly database including various countries and sectors of the global economy and (ii) to nowcast a low‐frequency macroeconomic variable using higher frequency information. Pseudo‐real‐time results over the period 2010–16 show that this approach provides reliable and timely nowcasts of the world GDP annual growth on a monthly basis.     

Immigration Policy,Self‐selection,and the Quality of Immigrants*

This paper investigates the effects of immigration quotas on the average quality of immigrants by developing a human capital migration model where efficiency in migration depends on skills and emigration rates are higher among skilled workers. Studying the joint determination of the domestic level of wages and immigrants' self‐selection, we find a negative relationship between the wage level and the percentage of educated workers among immigrants, which results in a nonstandard downward‐sloping labor supply. In our framework, a higher quota increases the skill mix of immigrants through its negative effect on wages and raises aggregate national income.     

Macro-financial linkages and business cycles: A factor-augmented probit approach

In this paper, we analyze macro-financial linkages in the euro area by implementing an innovative factor-augmented probit model estimated using a large database. In particular, our model specification enables the identification of the leading influence of financial variables on euro area business cycles, in addition to the coincident information conveyed by standard macroeconomic variables. We also point out that dynamic factor models lead to more accurate replication of business cycles than static ones.     

Automobile quality choice under pollution control regulation

In this paper, we develop a modified quality choice model to study the effects of various mobile-source air pollution control regulations. We have a single producer that supplies a fixed number of car types (two) but faces a spectrum of consumers differing in their valuation of car quality. The car manufacturer chooses the quality levels of the two car types as well as the sales mix between the two types and the size of the market it wishes to supply. By endogenizing both the sales mix and the market size, while still allowing quality to be a choice variable, we are able to more completely analyze the impact of any car pollution control regulation. Existing studies of this impact either focus on the model line adjustment response (shifts in the quality array) or on the price adjustment response (changes in the sales mix and market size). In allowing for both the model line and the price adjustment options, we find that the corporate average fuel efficiency (CAFE) standard is unambiguously welfare superior to the low-emission vehicle quantity constraint (LEV) and zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) programs. We also show that the effects of the CAFE standard are not equivalent to those of a fuel tax, as previously found, and that, for a given car pollution target, the former is preferred to the latter.