Burn or bury? A social cost comparison of final waste disposal methods

This paper evaluates the two well-known final waste disposal methods, incineration and landfilling. In particular we compare the social cost of two best-available technologies using a point estimate based on private and environmental cost data for the Netherlands. Not only does our comparison allow for Waste-to-Energy incineration plants but for landfills as well. The data provide support for the widespread policy preference for incineration over landfilling only if the analysis is restricted to environmental costs alone and includes savings of both energy and material recovery. Gross private costs, however, are so much higher for incineration, that landfilling is the social cost minimizing option at the margin even in a densely populated country such as the Netherlands. Furthermore, we show that our result generalizes to other European countries and probably to the USA. Implications for waste policy are discussed as well. Proper treatment of and energy recovery from landfills seem to be the most important targets for waste policy. Finally, WTE plants are a very expensive way to save on climate change emissions.     

The Influence of Task Load and Automation Trust on Deception Detection

The purpose of this research was to investigate the effects that user task load level has on the relationship between an individual's trust in and subsequent use of a system's automation. Military decision-makers trust and use information system automation to make many tactical judgments and decisions. In situations of information uncertainty (information warfare environments), decision-makers must remain aware of information reliability issues and temperate their use of system automation if necessary. An individual's task load may have an effect on his use of a system's automation in environments of information uncertainty.It was hypothesized that user task load will have a moderating effect on the positive relationship between system automation trust and use of system automation. Specifically, in situations of information uncertainty (low trust), high task load will have a negative effect on the relationship. To test this hypothesis, an experiment in a simulated command and control micro-world was conducted in which system automation trust and individual task load were manipulated. The findings from the experiment support the positive relationship between automation trust and automation use found in previous research and suggest that task load does have a negative effect on the positive relationship between automation trust and automation use. Experiment participant who incurred a higher task load exhibited an over-reliance on their automated information systems to assist them in their decision-making activities. Such an over-reliance can lead to vulnerabilities of deception and suggests the need for automated deception detection capabilities.     

The growth of UK companies and their contribution to job generation, 1985–1987

Theories of firm growth are reviewed and various models examined. The firm growth and job generation process in the UK over the period 1985–87, is examined empirically, by using the very large data files of the Dun and Bradstreet credit rating organisation. In the analysis, four computer processes were carried out; the sorting and matching of files, the cleaning of the data, the validation of the cleaned data, and the scaling up the results. The final adjusted data were grossed-up to provide an overview of the growth and job generation potential of UK firms. This is compared with past results for the periods 1971–81, and 1982–84. Small firms performed well, providing 48% of all new jobs, although consisting of only 21% of all employment in 1985. The 1000+ employee range provided only 13% of all new jobs over the period, although consisting of 37% of all employment in 1985. An overall trend of positive performance in smaller firms, and negative in larger firms was apparent. The 20–49 employee cohort performed unusually poorly in firm and job creation, against the expected pattern. The effect of takeovers, mergers and rationalisations on employment was examined. As expected, there was negligible restructuring of small firms, but over 5% of employees in the largest 1000+ cohort were involved in some form of reorganisation.In this and the two previous studies for 1971–81 and 1982–84, we found a consistent pattern of small firms as net generators of jobs, and large firms as net losers. This overall net behaviour is essential for the overall stability of the population, and can not be seen in good or bad terms. Bolton in 1971 found that the UK had an unduly small and weak small-firm sector. That trend to concentration is being reversed.This research was supported by the Department of Employment, Small Firms Division.     

Natural conjugate priors for the instrumental variables regression model applied to the Angrist–Krueger data

We propose a natural conjugate prior for the instrumental variables regression model. The prior is a natural conjugate one since the marginal prior and posterior of the structural parameter have the same functional expressions which directly reveal the update from prior to posterior. The Jeffreys prior results from a specific setting of the prior parameters and results in a marginal posterior of the structural parameter that has an identical functional form as the sampling density of the limited information maximum likelihood estimator. We construct informative priors for the Angrist–Krueger [1991. Does compulsory school attendance affect schooling and earnings? Quarterly Journal of Economics 106, 979–1014] data and show that the marginal posterior of the return on education in the US coincides with the marginal posterior from the Southern region when we use the Jeffreys prior. This result occurs since the instruments are the strongest in the Southern region and the posterior using the Jeffreys prior, identical to maximum likelihood, focusses on the strongest available instruments. We construct informative priors for the other regions that make their posteriors of the return on education similar to that of the US and the Southern region. These priors show the amount of prior information needed to obtain comparable results for all regions.     

Assessing the impact of patent infringement on new product sales

In order to assess the impact of patent infringement on the growth of a new product, a model is developed through the intervention model development processes of Box-Jenkins and Box-Tiao. Physical interpretations of model parameters and determination of associated damages suggest that the model can provide a sound basis for analyzing patent infringement disputes.     

Econometric analysis of linearized singular dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models

In this paper I propose an alternative to calibration of linearized singular dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models. Given an a-theoretical econometric model as a representative of the data generating process, I will construct an information measure which compares the conditional distribution of the econometric model variables with the corresponding singular conditional distribution of the theoretical model variables. The singularity problem will be solved by using convolutions of both distributions with a non-singular distribution. This information measure will then be maximized to the deep parameters of the theoretical model, which links these parameters to the parameters of the econometric model and provides an alternative to calibration. This approach will be illustrated by an application to a linearized version of the stochastic growth model of King, Plosser and Rebelo.     

POSTERIOR‐PREDICTIVE EVIDENCE ON US INFLATION USING EXTENDED NEW KEYNESIAN PHILLIPS CURVE MODELS WITH NON‐FILTERED DATA

Changing time series properties of US inflation and economic activity, measured as marginal costs, are modeled within a set of extended New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) models. It is shown that mechanical removal or modeling of simple low‐frequency movements in the data may yield poor predictive results which depend on the model specification used. Basic NKPC models are extended to include structural time series models that describe typical time‐varying patterns in levels and volatilities. Forward‐ and backward‐looking expectation components for inflation are incorporated and their relative importance is evaluated. Survey data on expected inflation are introduced to strengthen the information in the likelihood. Use is made of simulation‐based Bayesian techniques for the empirical analysis. No credible evidence is found on endogeneity and long‐run stability between inflation and marginal costs. Backward‐looking inflation appears stronger than forward‐looking inflation. Levels and volatilities of inflation are estimated more precisely using rich NKPC models. The extended NKPC structures compare favorably with existing basic Bayesian vector autoregressive and stochastic volatility models in terms of fit and prediction. Tails of the complete predictive distributions indicate an increase in the probability of deflation in recent years. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

中国境外旅游至克罗地亚简介

序言旅游业作为一种产业在世界经济中扮演着重要角色,在世界国内生产总值中占据了9.9%的份额,占世界总就业人数8.4%以及世界总体投资的12%。各国出入境游客数量逐年增高,各国之间的竞争也逐渐加剧,据世界贸易组织报道2015年全球游客数目将达到16亿,同时各国都在努力提升本国的吸引力     

Why we hate performance management—And why we should love it

Individual performance is a building block of organizational success. Not surprisingly, virtually all organizations have in place some type of performance management system. Yet, managers and employees are equally skeptical that performance management adds value; usually, it is seen as a waste of time and resources. We argue that the potential benefits of performance management are not realized because most systems focus exclusively on narrow and evaluative aspects such as performance appraisal. Herein, we offer a broader view of performance management, including discussion of how it differs from performance appraisal. We highlight specific and important benefits of performance management for employees, managers, and organizations. We also describe research-based conclusions regarding how performance management systems should be designed and implemented to realize these benefits. We hope our article will demonstrate that well-constructed performance management systems should not be hated, but rather embraced.     

Rhetoric, argument and impression management in hostile takeover defence documents

This exploratory study extends the analysis of narrative disclosures from routine reporting contexts such as annual reports and press releases to non-routine takeover documents where the financial consequences of narrative disclosures can be substantial. Rhetoric and argument in the form of impression management techniques in narrative disclosures are examined. Prior thematic content analysis methods for analysing good and bad news disclosures are adapted to the attacking and defensive themes in the defence documents of target companies subject to hostile takeover bids. The paper examines the incidence, extent and implications of impression management in ten hostile takeover defence documents issued by target companies listed on the London Stock Exchange between 1 January 2006 and 30 June 2008. Three impression management strategies – thematic, visual and rhetorical manipulation – are investigated using content analysis methodologies. The findings of the research indicate that thematic, visual and rhetorical manipulation is evident in hostile takeover defence documents. Attacking and defensive sentences were found to comprise the majority of the defence documents analysed. Such sentences exhibited varying degrees of visual and rhetorical emphasis, which served to award greater or lesser degrees of prominence to the information conveyed by target company management.While exploratory in nature, this paper concludes with suggestions for future more systematic research allowing for greater generalisations from the findings.