Delphi: An investigation from a Bayesian viewpoint

This paper presents an analysis of Delphi from a Bayesian point of view and brings to attention several hitherto neglected, but highly relevant findings of research in areas other than Delphi proper. The aim has been to seek avenues of improvement in the Delphi technique. This has led to development of a methodology, which is based on a concept of second order probabilities as a measure of one's fuzzy thinking. The justification of this new methodology lies in explicit recognition and implementation of an optimum, determined by the trade-off between advantages and complexities of hierarchial inference. It is essential that conventional Delphi applications, at the very least, be accompanied by a Turoff-type cross impact analysis. It is indicated that the tremendous potential of Bayesianized Delphi in appropriate situations has remained utapped.     

On the conception and measurement of trade-off in engineering systems: A case study of the aircraft design process

One of the most common forms of systems analysis is analysis of trade-off. However, few if any studies have been made of longitudinal trade-off, i.e., process of trade-off over time. An understanding of the process of trade-off would seem to be a prerequisite to development of a theory of the evolution of complex systems. In the present study an attempt is made in this direction. An illustrative case of aircraft design process is studied. Three distinct contributions are offered. First, the Pareto distribution is proposed as a relevant asymptotic model of the process of trade-off. Second, the constant parameter (fixed coefficient) assumption in the existing models of the evolution of complex systems is indicated to be a convenience that is not justified by the evidence. Third, the thesis is advanced that in many cases forseeing a breakthrough in systems design and engineering is possible by means of an analysis of residuals in a “properly specified” dimensional analytic framework. More generally, it is suggested that evolution of complex systems is best understood in a dimensional analytic framework. Implications of the results for the actual systems design, R & D project assessment and establishing engineering standards are noted.     

On the conception and measurement of technology: A case study of the aircraft design process

This study is aimed at the development of a theory of the measurement of technology. Several distinct contributions are offered: (1) The existing approaches to the measurement of technological change, including the economic theory of quality change, are concluded to be inappropriate. A statistical version of dimensional analytic theory is presented as an alternative approach and is applied to the illustrative case of aircraft. (2) A dimensional analytic framework is proposed as an alternative to the neoclassical economic conception of the production function. (3) A theory is proposed and substantiated stating that once the basic configuration is established, the evolution of technological systems proceeds in small steps. The role of fundamental knowledge in the process of design appears to be relatively small and fundamental shifts in individual production functions are far less frequent than is commonly believed. (4) It is shown that a dimensional analytic approach transforms the characteristics of different systems to a common domain that also makes comprehensive measurement of intertechnology change a possibility.     

The determinants of best-practice technology

This study examines the mechanism underlying the advances in the forefront of technical knowledge. A case study of the growth in the maximum capacity of turbogenerators is presented. Two main determinants of technological change emerge in the light of available evidence. One is the accumulated experience of a practical nature. The other is the scale of the larger system for the use of technology. The role of these twin processes of learning and scaling is shown to be of a fundamental nature. In particular, they account for a remarkably simple law of an otherwise complex system of technological innovation in electric power industry: the ratio of maximum unit capacity to total installed capacity remains relatively constant over long periods of time. The study has further implications for the national technology strategy. They are discussed.     

The generalized distance measures of technology

This paper presents a discriminant analytic framework for the measurement and assessment of technology. It circumvents entirely the problems associated with the other approaches to measurement of technology presented in the literature on technological forecasting and economic theory of quality change. The proposed framework is also capable of providing a whole new variety of systematic approaches to technology assessment. It has been pointed out that the present approach may be regarded as complementary to the dimensional analytical approach presented earlier by the author. In comparison of the two, the notion of process discriminant as distinguished from feature discriminant is advanced. A partial application of the framework to the illustrative case of piston-type aircraft technology is presented. The results of the study provide further support to the hypothesis that the majority of technological change occurs at the level of emperical rather than fundamental knowledge.     

Foundations of technometrics

Conventional indicators of technology fail to provide a direct measure of scientific or technological progress. This paper examines three explicit approaches to the measurement of technology: the Hedonic, the Rand, and the composite (wholistic and holistic). Looking at technology from within rather than from without, a theoretical framework for measurement—technometrics—is developed. The state-of-the-art is specified in terms of a surface of constant probability density given the distribution of technological characteristics. The latter, in turn, are specified as vectors in an n-dimensional space.     

Substitution of mechanical corn pickers by field shelling technology— An econometric analysis

Existing models of technological substitution, including those of the Blackman-Mansfield type, are the point of departure of this study. An illustrative case of substitution of mechanical corn pickers by field shelling technology (currently in progress) is studied. The results of this study suggest that technological substitution is best considered as an economic phenomena. The assumption that the diffusion of innovation follows an S-shaped curve does not seem to be crucial. The production scale (e.g., farm size) is concluded to be the most important determinant of technological substitution.     

Technology,productivity, and industry structure

This paper examines the controversy as to the particular firm size or industry structure that is most conducive to innovation. Four major conclusions emerge from the considerations advanced here. First, contrary to the focus of the controversy, the relevant issue is not one of the economic statics. Rather, it is one of technological dynamism. Second, variety is an essential ingredient of innovative activity, which can be sustained only through equivalent variety in firm size and industry structure. Thus, there is no one single optimum firm size or industry structure. Third, the origin of interindustry differences in innovation and productivity growth lies in certain processes of cumulative causation involving a multiplicity of variables rather than any one single factor at the exclusion of all others. In consequence, we find that productivity does not advance in a uniform manner across various industries. Rather, it is characterized by an inherently uneven pattern of growth. Fourth, it is pointless to strive for a balanced growth between various sectors of the economy. Rather, an effective policy is one of deliberately lopsided growth whereby fuller development of progressive industries makes it possible to generate the additional resources required for investment in the backward industries. Finally, while the policy to stimulate technical progress and productivity growth must be formulated in a broader socioeconomic context, its focus ought to be on the internal dynamics of technical change processes.