A probabilistic ghost in the experimental machine

This paper focuses on the opposition between two contemporary research programs in economics: behavioral economics (BE) and experimental market economics (EME). Our claim is that the arguments of this opposition can be clarified through the lens of another opposition in the philosophy of probability and in probability theory, between Bayesianism and frequentism. We show how this probabilistic opposition has indirectly shaped a controversy in psychology that opposes two research programs – Heuristics and Biases and Ecological Rationality – which play respective roles in the foundations of individual rationality in BE and EME. To understand these theoretical interrelationships, we investigate the 1996 controversy between Kahneman, Tversky, and Gigerenzer. Those psychologists held different views on how probabilistic representations influence the context-dependency of rationality. This provides a rationale to suggest that a probabilistic ghost may be haunting the experimental machine in economics, and explains how and why the oppositions between BE and EME are structured around the interplay between the norms of rationality and the context in which rationality is exercised.     

Hybrid structures: innovative governance,judicial and sociological approaches

Quality & Quantity - The aim of this study is to examine the new trends in the hybridity research area and clarify the convergence of interests among state actors, private actors and civil...     

Narrativity and identity in the representation of the economic agent

We critically survey explicit discussions of the narrativity of economic agents by economists. Narrativity broadly refers to the way humans construct and use stories, notably to define their personal identity. We borrow from debates outside of economics to provide the critical dimension of our survey. Most contributions on the narrativity of economic agents do not discuss one another. To establish communication, we suggest a structure of oppositions that characterize these contributions taken as a whole. These oppositions are notably characterized by three tensions: in terms of methodological attitudes (‘scientism’ vs. ‘humanism’), of underlying theories of personal identity postulating the existence of a unique sense of self or not (‘diachronicity’ vs. ‘episodicity’) and of the normative implications of narrativity (‘welfare-increasing’ vs. ‘welfare-decreasing’). The main goal is to clarify the structure of opposite positions within a more or less explicit debate about the identity of individuals in economics.     

General-to-Specific Modelling Using PcGets

Abstract.  This review examines the facilities provided by PcGets version 1.0, an OxMetrics module designed to implement automated general-to-specific model selection in the context of cross-section or dynamic time-series models that are linear in the parameters. A cross-section empirical example is used to illustrate the steps involved, the output produced and the options available for modellers.     

The Value of Pole Position in Formula 1 History

In this article, we study the effect of the Pole Position in Formula 1 history on the outcome of the race. Using data for every race between 1950 and 2013, we use two approaches to quantify the effect of being on Pole. First, we estimate the effect on the probability of winning the race using a logit model. Second, we estimate a Poisson model to express the effect in terms of finishing positions. We find that the Pole sitter does have a significant advantage over the other drivers on the grid: two positions at the finish line or about a 10 percentage point higher probability of winning the race. These estimates capture the effect controlling for various confounding factors and a rich set of fixed effects, including driver ability, track characteristics and constructor performance. We also document that the effect varies over seasons.     

The development of stage coaching and the impact of turnpike roads, 1653–1840

This article uses newspaper advertisements to chart the changes in speeds and fares of stage coaches, identifying the main periods of increasing speeds among London coaches as the 1760s–80s and 1810s–20s, separated by a period when speeds declined. It then measures productivity growth. Fares of London coaches in 1835–6 were about 27 per cent of what they would have been but for improvements in horses, vehicles, and roads from 1750, and the two main periods of productivity growth correspond to those of rising speeds. Speeds and productivity of regional coaches increased more smoothly. The rising productivity firmly identifies road transport as one of the modernizing sectors of the economy. New figures are put forward for the growing number of London and regional coaches, indicating rapid growth in passenger miles. While turnpike trusts had little impact before the 1750s, their increasing effectiveness, together with the use of steel springs and improved horses, was crucial to the rising productivity of the 1760s–80s, and even more so to that of the 1810s–20s. The cross roads were apparently poorer than London roads in the late eighteenth century, but thereafter the gap narrowed.     

Helping "light green" consumers walk the talk: Results of a behavioural intervention survey in the Swiss electricity market

While many consumer surveys show very positive attitudes towards renewable energy, the share of consumers actually purchasing green electricity is still in the single-digit percent range in most countries. What can be done to help consumers with positive attitudes towards green electricity to “walk the talk”, i.e. to behave consistently with their preferences? We developed a psychological model based on the theory of planned behaviour (TPB) to design a large-scale behavioural intervention survey with 1163 Swiss electricity consumers. Our results show that by providing information targeted at the key factors influencing the intention to purchase green electricity, namely attitudes towards purchase, social norms and perceived behavioural control, a significant increase in green electricity market share can be achieved. Our results show that price is not the only barrier to purchasing green electricity, and that information to increase the perceived benefit of buying green electricity as well as targeted communication to overcome inertia among retail electricity consumers are equally important factors.     

Bridging the barriers: knowledge connections,productivity and capital accumulation

The paper contributes to the explanation of the large differences in cross-country productivity performance by modelling and testing the effects of social barriers to communication on productivity and capital accumulation. In an optimal growth model, social barriers to communication, which impede the formation of knowledge connections, are shown to reduce both transitory and steady-state levels of total factor productivity (TFP), per capita consumption and reproducible capital. Empirical testing yields a robust and theoretically consistent result: linguistic barriers to communication reduce productivity and capital accumulation. The findings provide an explanation for cross-country differences in TFP, and fresh insights into how productivity ‘catch up’ may be initiated.

Measuring Competitive Balance in Professional Team Sports Using the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index

Competitive balance in sports leagues is essentially concerned with inequality in match and championship outcomes. Measures of inequality or concentration from the income distribution and industrial organization literatures have, therefore, often been used to measure competitive balance. This paper focuses on the use of the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) applied to wins. It is shown that variation in the number of teams in the league affects not only the lower bound but also the upper bound of the HHI. An expression is derived for the upper bound and a normalized measure of the HHI, applicable to wins, is proposed. The differences this can make in practice when tracking variations in competitive balance over time are illustrated by considering Depken’s (1999) application of the HHI to Major League Baseball.