A Profile of Poverty in Egypt

This paper presents a profile of poverty in Egypt for 1997. It assesses the magnitude of poverty and its distribution across geographic and socioeconomic groups, provides information on the characteristics of the poor, illustrates the heterogeneity amongst the poor, and helps identify empirical correlates of poverty. This poverty profile is constructed using data from the Egypt Integrated Household Survey (EIHS), which is a nationwide, multiple‐topic household survey. One of the more striking set of findings relates to the differences between the poor and the non‐poor in their educational attainments. Our results indicate a significant literacy and schooling gap between the poor and the non‐poor. On average the poor have 2.6 fewer years of schooling than the non‐poor, and their literacy rate is 27 percent lower than the non‐poor. Our results also indicate that augmenting educational attainment of the poor does not require building more schools, but reducing the poor’s opportunity cost of attending schools and increasing their returns from extra schooling, both suggesting the importance of income generating activities as a policy instrument.     

E-tailer personality and behavioral intentions: the application of self-congruity theory

The present study is an effort to develop an e-tailer personality scale. Subsequently, we check the impacts of e-tailer personality on self-congruity and behavioral intentions such as intention to re-shop and intention to recommend. We have followed a traditional scale development method – item generation, purification, and dimension assessment. A structure questionnaire has been used to collect primary data online. A structure equation model was used to analyze the data. This study has developed a e-tailer personality scale of five dimensions: sophistication, competence, excitement, sincerity, and convenience. The results of a structural equation model largely support the propositions that e-tailer personality is positively related to self-congruity. The results also show that e-tailer personality, behavioral intentions and self-congruity are positively related. A comparison of the developed scale with the existing brand personality scales, results in a unique dimension of e-tailer personality scale. Arguably, this study may be seen as a first study in an emerging economy and online retailing domain. The results have both academic and managerial implications.     

Shall One Sit “Longer” for a Free Lunch? Impact of Trading Durations on the Realized Variances and Volatility Spillovers

This study examines the effect of trading durations on the realized variance of rupee futures traded in national stock exchange (NSE), India and Dubai Gold & Commodities Exchange (DGCX), Dubai as there exists a difference in the trading durations at these exchanges, where DGCX has longer trading duration. The empirical results suggest that longer trading duration has significantly higher realized variance, and also non-trading durations at NSE account for higher overall realized variance of Rupee Futures. We model the impact of trading durations on intraday and overnight realized variance for rupee futures and estimate a reduced realized volatility of 40–70 bps due to shorter trading duration. We find that non-trading durations at National Stock Exchange account for 60–70% of the overall realized variance of rupee futures. Using MGARCH model with BEKK parameterization, we find evidence of bidirectional volatility spillover from Offshore to Onshore Rupee markets.

     

Determinants of Trade Costs and Trade Growth Accounting between India and the European Union during 1995–2010

This study aimed to utilise the micro‐founded measure of trade cost derived by Novy to estimate the relative bilateral trade costs of India with its European Union partners. The advantage of using such a model is that the trade costs can be derived entirely using observable trade data. The results show that Indian tariff equivalent with its major EU trading partners has declined by 20 percentage points between 1995 and 2010, with Malta and Latvia experiencing the greatest decline. The study then decomposes the bilateral trade growth to ascertain whether it is an outcome of increased domestic production or reduction in bilateral and multilateral trade barriers. Novy's model indicates that the decline in relative bilateral trade costs explains the greatest percentage of this trade growth, which is partially offset by decline in multilateral resistance terms that has diverted trade away to other trading partners primarily in South and South‐East Asia and North America.     

Is emigration of workers contributing to better schooling outcomes in Nepal?

This paper presents evidence on how emigration for work affects schooling outcomes for primary and secondary school‐age children in Nepal. Using an instrumental variable strategy exploiting past migration network, we show that the identified effects critically depend on how schooling outcomes are measured. While conventional measures of school attendance indicate no impact, our new set of schooling status and schooling gap measures reveals significant impacts. Schooling status measures reveal favorable impacts for girls, and for emigration to India. Schooling gap measures reveal favorable effects of all emigration on schooling outcomes for girls and of emigration to other countries for boys.     

QUANTIFYING ABSOLUTE POVERTY IN THE DEVELOPING WORLD

We estimate that in 1985 about one in five persons in the developing world lived in poverty, judged by the standards of the poorest countries. This rises to one in three at a common, more generous, poverty line. The aggregate consumption short-fall of the poorest fifth is about one half of one percent of world consumption, while that of the poorest third is a further one percent. The shape of the distribution of consumption suggests that aggregate poverty would fall fairly rapidly if moderate growth in average consumption levels can be sustained, and the poor share at least proportionally in that growth. However, it would take only small adverse shifts in the world distribution of consumption to eliminate the gains to the poor from growth.     

Analysis of non-stationary dynamics in the financial system

Novel data-driven analyses, appropriate for detecting economic instability in non-stationary time series, are developed using functional principal component analysis (fPCA) and Synchrosqueezing. fPCA is applied in a new way, aggregating multiple financial time series to identify periods of macroeconomic instability. Synchrosqueezing, a technique which generates a time-series’ time-dependent spectral decomposition, is modified to develop a new quantitative measure of local dynamical changes and structural breaks. The merit of this integrated technique is demonstrated by analyzing financial data from 1986 to 2012 that includes equity indices, securities and commodities, and foreign exchange. Both procedures successfully detect key historic periods of instability. Moreover, the results reveal distinctions between periods of long-term gradual change in addition to structural breaks. These tools offer new insights into the analysis of financial instability.     

How Important to India's Poor Is the Sectoral Composition of Economic Growth?

Using a new series of consistent, consumption-based povertymeasures spanning forty years, we assess how much India's poorshared in the country's economic growth, taking into accountits urban-rural and output composition. Rural consumption growthreduced poverty in both rural and urban areas. Urban growthbrought some benefits to the urban poor, but had no impact onrural poverty. And rural-to-urban population shifts had no significantimpact on poverty. Decomposing growth by output sectors, wefound that output growth in the primary and tertiary sectorsreduced poverty in both urban and rural areas but that secondarysector growth did not reduce poverty in either.     

Macroeconomic Crises and Poverty Monitoring: A Case Study for India

Survey-based welfare indicators can fluctuate over time in ways which have little to do with macroeconomic changes in the economy. So basing policy decisions on short-term movements in such welfare indicators can be hazardous. There was a sharp increase in India's poverty measures in the aftermath of the mid-1991 crisis and the ensuing stabilization program. However, only one-tenth of the increase in measured poverty is explicable in terms of the variables one would expect to transmit the shock to poor people. Poverty measures soon returned to their pre-reform levels, belying the notion of a structural break induced by reforms.     

The New Keynesian business cycle achievements and challenges

The New-Keynesian (NK) business cycle model has presented itself as a potential “workhorse” model for business cycle analysis. This paper seeks to assess afresh the performance of the baseline NK model and its various extensions. The main theme of the paper is that although the dynamic NK literature has secured a robust defence to criticism arising, inter alia, on account of lack of microfoundations, it still has a long way to go in terms of providing a fully satisfactory model of the business cycle. In this regard, it is conjectured that explicitly accounting for the role of heterogeneity in business-cycle dynamics could lead towards a viable solution.