Modelling Inflation Volatility

This paper discusses estimation of US inflation volatility using time‐varying parameter models, in particular whether it should be modelled as a stationary or random walk stochastic process. Specifying inflation volatility as an unbounded process, as implied by the random walk, conflicts with priors beliefs, yet a stationary process cannot capture the low‐frequency behaviour commonly observed in estimates of volatility. We therefore propose an alternative model with a change‐point process in the volatility that allows for switches between stationary models to capture changes in the level and dynamics over the past 40 years. To accommodate the stationarity restriction, we develop a new representation that is equivalent to our model but is computationally more efficient. All models produce effectively identical estimates of volatility, but the change‐point model provides more information on the level and persistence of volatility and the probabilities of changes. For example, we find a few well‐defined switches in the volatility process and, interestingly, these switches line up well with economic slowdowns or changes of the Federal Reserve Chair. Moreover, a decomposition of inflation shocks into permanent and transitory components shows that a spike in volatility in the late 2000s was entirely on the transitory side and characterized by a rise above its long‐run mean level during a period of higher persistence. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Incompatibility of Decentralized Bargaining and Equal Employment Opportunity in Australia

Profound changes have occurred in the industrial relations system in Australia since the mid-1980s as the system of centralized regulation has been replaced by collective bargaining at the level of the enterprise. This has corresponded with the considerable expansion of women's employment, mainly in part-time and temporary jobs. At the same time, recognition of the disadvantaged position of women in the work-force has resulted in the enactment of laws to promote equal employment opportunity. This article examines the ability of these laws to achieve equal employment opportunity policies alongside bargaining decentralization and a growing non-standard women's work-force.     

Students' Perceptions of a Scaffolded Approach to Learning Financial Planning: An Empirical Study

In the aftermath of the global financial crisis (GFC), one understandable area of scrutiny and pressure for reform is the educational background and professionalism of personal financial advisers. This Australian study reports on a three-year investigation into students' perceptions of ‘scaffolded’ instruction in financial planning. The scaffolded approach was used to assist learning in areas that previously had caused difficulty. The results indicate that students perceived the scaffolded tasks to be valuable learning experiences which increased their appreciation of the skills and knowledge required by financial advisers. Although students may bring different frames of reference to their learning, and the positiveness of perceived value of scaffolded instruction may vary between different demographic groupings, scaffolding techniques are shown to provide strong potential to assist university educators and their students in financial planning.     

Bridging skills demand and supply in South Africa: The role of public and private intermediaries

ABSTRACT

Demand-led skills development requires linkages and coordination between firms and education and training organisations, which are major challenges considering that each represents a ‘self-interested’ entity. The need for a ‘collaborative project’ involving government, firms, universities and colleges, and other bodies is thus increasingly recognised. However, the crucial role of intermediaries has been largely overlooked. The article addresses this gap by investigating the main roles of public and private intermediaries across three case studies: sugarcane growing and milling, automotive component manufacturing, and the Square Kilometre Array sectoral systems of innovation. The research highlights the need for a move towards systemic thinking, to bridge across public and private objectives. It shows that private intermediaries play a larger role than is recognised in policy; that public–private intermediaries play crucial roles in coordination; and the potential for public intermediaries to contribute more effectively to systemic functioning.     

Promoting alignment between innovation policy and inclusive development in South Africa

Innovation for inclusive development (IID) is widely promoted as a policy objective in the global South, but the challenge is that there is little design and implementation of context-appropriate instruments and incentives. One critical foundation is network alignment – that innovation policy should be aligned with the goals and strategies of government departments responsible for promoting inclusive development (Von Tunzelmann, N, 2007. Approaching network alignment. Draft Paper for the U-Know Consortium: Understanding the relationship between knowledge and competitiveness in the enlarging European Union). The paper contributes by using qualitative analysis software to analyse the nature of shared policy goals and instruments in South Africa, and assess how these can be aligned with each other and with the goals of IID. Three main spaces for policy intervention are identified, to promote IID in a way that goes beyond the aspirational and the rhetorical. Such analysis of formal policy does not take into account the political will, capabilities and resources for implementation, but it does provide a systematic evidence base to effect strategic change.     

Stochastic search variable selection in vector error correction models with an application to a model of the UK macroeconomy

This paper develops methods for stochastic search variable selection (currently popular with regression and vector autoregressive models) for vector error correction models where there are many possible restrictions on the cointegration space. We show how this allows the researcher to begin with a single unrestricted model and either do model selection or model averaging in an automatic and computationally efficient manner. We apply our methods to a large UK macroeconomic model. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Three Pillars of Conventional Wisdom

This paper considers three pillars of contemporary economic wisdom that form part of the so-called 'Washington consensus': that free markets work best; that price stability is a good thing; and that deregulated financial markets work best. We argue that these propositions apply in certain circumstances, but do not have general validity. After discussing the circumstances in which these propositions do not hold we suggest how the conventional policy wisdom should be revised.     

Rural credit: A micro synthesis of the Salvadorean experience

Discriminant analysis is applied to distinguish non-defaulted and defaulted loans in a practical context at the Agricultural and Cattle development bank in El Salvador. The results suggest that implementation of such a model will reduce administration costs and lower default rates.     

Side-effects of planning in the aid control system

This paper argues that certain recurring problems in aid administration — long project lead times, high administrative costs, implementation delays, and managerial passivity and subterfuge — can be traced back to the ‘rational’ paradigm guiding the evolution of the aid control system. The unequal power relation over time among the partners coupled with an excessive emphasis on prior planning has led to a system for administering developmental assistance which is more costly and less effective than it need be, and which has an unintended anti-developmental bias.     

Bayesian Model Selection with an Uninformative Prior*

Bayesian model selection with posterior probabilities and no subjective prior information is generally not possible because of the Bayes factors being ill‐defined. Using careful consideration of the parameter of interest in cointegration analysis and a re‐specification of the triangular model of Phillips (Econometrica, Vol. 59, pp. 283–306, 1991), this paper presents an approach that allows for Bayesian comparison of models of cointegration with ‘ignorance’ priors. Using the concept of Stiefel and Grassman manifolds, diffuse priors are specified on the dimension and direction of the cointegrating space. The approach is illustrated using a simple term structure of the interest rates model.