The economic impacts of drought on the economy of Iran: An integration of linear programming and macroeconometric modelling approaches

In this paper, we provide economy-wide estimates of the costs of drought in the cropping sector of the Iranian economy, using a linear programming model to estimate the direct costs on agriculture, and a macroeconometric model to trace the indirect impacts on the rest of the economy. The results indicate that a severe drought such as the one that occurred in the crop year 1999-2000 imposes a direct cost of 1605 million USD, equivalent to 30.3% of the total value added of the cropping sector in Iran. This, in turn, leads to a 12.7% reduction in the value added of other agricultural sub-sectors (livestock, fisheries and forestry). In the rest of the economy, the manufacturing and service sectors experience value added declines of 7.8 and 3.7%, respectively. In addition, there is a substantial decrease in investment in the agricultural, manufacturing and service sectors. Thus, such a drought reduces overall GDP by about 4.4%, and it would also result in decreased non-oil exports, increased food imports, and a rise in inflation. The results of some drought mitigation simulations are reported in brief. Such estimates strengthen the case for increased attention to drought strategies and management in agriculture in Iran and elsewhere.     

Bilateral Trade Performance in West Africa: A Gravity Model Estimation

This study provides empirical insights on the functioning of regional trade agreements within the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) by identifying bilateral trade barriers that affect the extent of trade flows among member countries. Also, it highlights some trade barrier indicators that are rarely covered in extant studies, such as the multilateral resistance term, the extent of trade complementarity, and the presence of economic integration agreements among ECOWAS member countries. We then provide augmented gravity model estimation on the determinants of bilateral trade in the region. We find, among other things, that trade complementarity had a positive and significant effect on bilateral trade within the sub‐region region. Other important determinants of intra‐regional trade include multilateral trade resistance and economic integration agreements — meaning that countries with some kind of agreement like the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) tend to trade more among themselves than other member countries.     

Air itinerary choice in a low-frequency market: A decision rule approach

This paper focuses on low frequency airline service patronage using the data from a survey conducted at Imam Khomeini International Airport in Tehran, Iran. It uses Dominance-based Rough Set Approach (DRSA) for modeling passengers’ choices. We compare the method with discrete choice models using a prediction potential measure. Unlike discrete choice methods, it can use qualitative and categorized data without having to transform them into dummy variables. It is found that the prediction accuracy of the proposed technique is better than that of the discrete choice model for the case under consideration.     

Econometric Analysis of Foreign Reserves and Some Macroeconomic Variables in Nigeria (1970–2007)*

Abstract: Countries are showing interest in accumulating foreign reserves to ensure macroeconomic stability. There has been some debate whether to beef up the level of nations' foreign reserves or make it lower, especially in developing countries like Nigeria. Whereas some argue that the foreign reserve determines the country's rating in the global market, others hold opposing views. In this light, this paper examined the interactive influence of foreign reserve (FRS) on some macroeconomic variables such as: economic size (GDP); trade; level of capital inflows (KFL); exchange rate (EXR); and inflation. Analyzing secondary data from CBN statistical bulletins (1970–2007), the econometric results obtained from cointegration test, vector error correction (VEC) within the framework of autoregressive distributed lags (ARDL) revealed the following: (1) existence of a long‐run relationship between the variables and two cointegrating equations; (2) possibility of convergence of the variables from the short run to the long run with slow speed of adjustment. It is thus the conclusion of this paper that accumulation of large foreign reserves is not very productive in Nigeria due to its inability to induce some of the macroeconomic variables.     

Assessing changes in teachers’ attitudes toward interdisciplinary STEM teaching

Integrating engineering and technology concepts into K-12 science and math curricula through engineering design project-based learning has been found to increase students’ interest in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM), however preparing teachers to shift to interdisciplinary teaching remains a significant challenge. Primarily teachers need to develop both skills and attitudes toward interdisciplinary teaching. In doing so, professional development (PD) is considered a key component in helping teachers through this transformation process. In an educational environment of accountability, measuring the effects of PD programs on teacher behaviors and capacity is essential but often elusive. The current study describes the change in attitudes to interdisciplinary teaching of 29 self-selected middle and high school teachers who participated a PD workshop and in delivering a 12–15 week interdisciplinary teaching and design problem unit that spanned multiple STEM subjects. This quasi-experimental pilot study implemented a single group pretest–posttest design using survey methods to collect data from the participants at two intervals; at the time of the PD workshop and at the completion of the teaching unit that emphasized a long-term engineering design problem. The goals of this research are to (1) assess the changes in attitudes to interdisciplinary teaching, attitudes to teamwork, teaching satisfaction, and resistance to change, (2) explore relationships among these changes, (3) and describe the variation in these changes across teachers’ gender, school level, discipline taught, and education level.     

Energy price reform and food markets: the case of bread supply chain in Iran

Reforming energy price is the core of Iranian economic reform plan during 2010–2014. However, increasing price of energy may have adverse effects on the agricultural and food markets. This study was conducted to address these problems in the most important food of Iranian people “bread” by developing a spatial supply chain model. Results show that consumers’ welfare would experience a sharp decrease though the impacts on farmers are trivial. Also, results indicate that the key to success the reform without political backlash in the short‐run is the cash transfer program under which the government redistributes part of the reform's benefits among consumers. Per capita compensation payments would be equal to 51.50 and 46.09 US$ per year for a typical rural and urban person, respectively. Moreover, the results provide more detailed information about the market characteristics and the payments both in nationwide and regional scale as well as in different income groups.