Bureaucracy, Tax System, and Economic Performance

This paper investigates the consequences for government size, growth and welfare if a selfish bureaucracy provides a congested input. Alternative exogenous tax systems are introduced and numerical analyses are carried out. The welfare optimum is only met under very specific assumptions: proportional congestion, a tax system only consisting of distortionary taxes and a bureaucracy that maximizes the budget's growth rate. Otherwise the relative size of the public sector becomes suboptimally large thus inducing welfare losses. From a welfare economic point of view bureaucratic selfishness is worse than a suboptimal taxing regime that does not (completely) internalize the congestion externalities.     

INVESTMENT IN FIXED CAPITAL AND COMPETITIVE INDUSTRY DYNAMICS

This paper explores the possibilities for complex dynamic behaviourin an industry where a fixed capital good, once acquired andinstalled, is specific to that industry. A central theme isto understand the sorts of factors which can impose bounds onthe behaviour of market price and which can impart stabilityto the system. The analysis highlights the significance notonly of the durability and specificity of physical capital goodsbut also of capacity (under-) utilisation decisions and of thecautiousness of producers when expanding their capacities.     

ARE THERE ADVERSE INFLATION EFFECTS ASSOCIATED WITH NATURAL GAS DECONTROL?

The Natural Gas Policy Act (NGPA) will decontrol gas prices in 1985, and there is concern about its inflation and output effects. In this investigation of these concerns, two misapprehensions are remedied. First, inflation is primarily a monetary phenomenon so that a rise in energy prices affects the price level, but any impact on inflation is temporary. Second, while analyses of NGPA have assumed that the price of gas will achieve parity with petroleum, they have neglected decontrol's effect on OPEC's optimal price, Our estimates of the decontrol effect demonstrate that energy prices will fall, not rise     

It's SHO Time! Short-Sale Price Tests and Market Quality

We examine the effects of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)-mandated temporary suspension of short-sale price tests for a set of Pilot securities. While short-selling activity increases both for NYSE- and Nasdaq-listed Pilot stocks, returns and volatility at the daily level are unaffected. NYSE-listed Pilot stocks experience more symmetric trading patterns and a slight increase in spreads and intraday volatility after the suspension while there is a smaller effect on market quality for Nasdaq-listed Pilot stocks. The results suggest that the effect of the price tests on market quality can largely be attributed to distortions in order flow created by the price tests themselves.     

The strange birth of liberal Denmark: Danish trade protection and the growth of the dairy industry since the mid‐nineteenth century1

The usual story of the ‘first era of globalization’ at the end of the nineteenth century sees Denmark as something of an outlier: a country which, like the UK, resisted the globalization backlash in the wake of the inflow of cheap grain from the New World, but where agriculture, rather than going into decline, in fact flourished. Key to the success of Danish agriculture was an early diversification towards dairy production. This article challenges this simple story which sees Denmark as something of a liberal paragon. Denmark's success owed much to a prudent use of trade policy which favoured dairy production. Moreover, this favouritism continued even after a more general movement to free trade in the 1860s. Using micro‐level data from individual dairies, we quantify the implied subsidy to dairy production from the tariffs, and demonstrate that in many cases this ensured the profitability of individual dairies.     

Bias in an Empirical Approach to Determining Bond and Mortgage Risk Premiums

Empirical studies of bond and commercial mortgage performance often quantify a required risk premium by examining the difference between the promised yield and the realized yield as adjusted for default occurrence. These studies omit the effects of various other sources of risk, however, including collateral asset market risk, interest rate risk, and possibly call risk. These omissions downwardly bias the empirical risk premium estimate on the debt. In this paper, we disentangle and quantify the sources of this bias by modeling secured coupon debt (the commercial mortgage) as used in the calculation of a realized investment return. We consider deterministic and stochastic interest rate economies with mortgage contracts that are either noncallable or subject to a temporary prepayment lockout period. Given realistic parameter values associated with the term structure, underlying asset dynamics, and debt contracting, we show that the magnitude of the bias can be significant.     

Service Satisfaction: An Empirical Analysis of Consumer Satisfaction in Financial Services

Does the widely accepted espectancy-disconfirmation model apply to situations within a financial services context? Or could it be, due to specific characteristics of services, that a different model applies? This paper addresses these questions and tests the relationships between consumer expectations, performance, disconfirmation, .satisfaction and repeat purchase in a lisrel model. The results would suggest that the relevancy of disconfirmation is fairly apparent and that expectations have only an indirect influence on satisfaction where financial services are concerned. The performance level of financial services however has a strong positive direct effect on satisfaction.     

The Duration of an Adjustable-Rate Mortgage and the Impact of the Index

With the increasing use of adjustable-rate mortgages for asset/liability management, there exists the need to properly evaluate their price sensitivity to interest rate changes. This paper provides a foundation by deriving the duration of an adjustable-rate mortgage. The properties of this duration are unique and have some important differences from those of fixed-rate securities. One important characteristic of an adjustable-rate mortgage concerns the index used to adjust the mortgage rate. It was found that the index tended to be more important than the adjustment frequency in determining the duration of an adjustable-rate mortgage.     

Incentives,technology and the shift to year‐round dairying in late nineteenth‐century Denmark1

This article uses monthly trade data to document the decline in the seasonality in Danish butter exports that occurred from the 1880s onwards. This decline contrasted with steady or increasing seasonality elsewhere. Monthly butter prices in Britain, Denmark, and Ireland show that the incentives to shift into winter dairying were particularly high in the 1880s and 1890s; however, this cannot on its own explain the Danish shift, since our price data show that farmers elsewhere faced winter premia that were every bit as high as the Danish premia. The crucial factor in Denmark was the generation of empirical knowledge by the private and public sectors systematically analysing empirical evidence; the rapid diffusion of this knowledge in a highly educated society via lectures, exhibitions, written materials, and by institutions such as the new cooperative sector; and a willingness to absorb this knowledge by profit‐maximizing farmers.     

Reusing Natural Experiments

After a natural experiment is first used, other researchers often reuse the setting, examining different outcome variables. We use simulations based on real data to illustrate the multiple hypothesis testing problem that arises when researchers reuse natural experiments. We then provide guidance for future inference based on popular empirical settings including difference-in-differences, instrumental variables, and regression discontinuity designs. When we apply our guidance to two extensively studied natural experiments, business combination laws and the Regulation SHO pilot, we find that many results that were statistically significant using single hypothesis testing do not survive corrections for multiple hypothesis testing.