Participatory appraisal approaches versus sample survey data collection: a case of smallholder farmers well-being ranking in Njombe District, Tanzania

Social scientists and rural development interventionists inTanzania and in Sub-Saharan Africa depend mainly on conventionalsample surveys; in part this is a legacy of their basic training.Participatory rural appraisal and intervention approaches offera varied range of methods. We ask ourselves whether the resultsfrom participatory, rapid appraisals are conflicting and differentto those from sample surveys? This paper compares results ofa Rapid Participatory Rural Appraisal (PRA) with a conventionalsample survey. These surveys were conducted at the end of 1995and mid-1996 respectively, to establish socio-economic well-beingranks in Njombe district. A comparison of results shows thatthe well-being ranks established using PRA are valid and theapproach is reliable. The three qualitatively established well-beingranks differed empirically in many socio-economic indicators.These include resource endowment, labour force size, agriculturalland, livestock ownership, forest woodlot management, perceptionof food insecurity, technological advances in agricultural productionand natural resource management systems. Results show that thelow well-being group and female-headed households are disadvantaged.The goal of the Hifadhi Ya Mazingira-Njombe project is to developenvironmentally sustainable crop and livestock husbandry practicesin the district. The well-being ranking exercise has strongimplications for the project's strategy. We discuss the adoptedmethodology and implications. The paper recommends that developmentprogrammes and workers in Tanzania and Sub-Saharan Africa oughtto extend their approaches. It is time to include more of theparticipatory, relatively rapid rural appraisal and interventiontechniques. Benefits that they may accrue are time saving, lowercosts, quality information and stakeholder involvement.     

Is Japan following Europe towards a society of singles? Possible impacts of the rapid increase in life expectancy on Japanese social structure--as seen by a European historical-demographer

The author examines the implications of increasing longevity for social development in Japan. He suggests that Japan is following the example set by Europe, in that almost universal longevity is leading to a focus on individual rather than societal well-being.     

Corporate risk-taking,firm value and high levels of managerial earnings forecasts

We examine the impact of high levels of managerial earnings forecasts, an important form of voluntary disclosure, on corporate risk-taking and firm value. Theory and anecdotal evidence suggest that a policy of high disclosure may reduce managers' willingness to invest in higher-risk, higher-return projects. We first verify, as in prior research, that corporate risk-taking is associated with higher future firm value. We then document a negative relation between firms with high levels of forecasting and corporate risk-taking. Finally, we provide evidence suggesting that high levels of managerial earnings forecasts reduce the positive association between corporate risk-taking and future firm value. Our results are robust to alternative measures of corporate risk-taking and future firm value, and alternative definitions of high levels of managerial earnings forecasts. Our results may be of importance to varying interests as they highlight the potential for high levels of earnings forecasts to inhibit corporate risk-taking and lower firm value.     

Ex post unbalanced tournaments

Tournaments create strong incentives under the assumption that the competition between the agents is balanced. If, at the outset, one agent is stronger than the other, the tournament is ex ante unbalanced and incentives break down. Handicaps can in this case restore incentives. In practice, competing agents are often overall equally strong but have different sorts of strengths. Then, competition will typically be unbalanced ex post and incentives break down, but handicaps cannot be used. We show how a simple means, introducing the possibility of a tie, can often resolve the problem. We examine under what conditions incentives are maximized by ties.     

Insider trading and response to earnings announcements: the impact of accelerated disclosure requirements

This paper contributes to the debate on the consequences of increased disclosure regulation by investigating the effects of expedited reporting requirements of Form 4 filings, mandated by the Sarbanes–Oxley Act (SOX), on the market response to earnings announcements. We first confirm that SOX reduces opportunistic insider trading without deterring insider trading due to diversification needs, and that post-SOX, opportunistic insider trades more strongly reveal upcoming earnings surprises. We then document that, at the earnings announcement date, earnings response coefficients (ERCs) are lower when earnings are preceded by opportunistic insider trades. We conclude that accelerated disclosures of insider transactions mandated by SOX lend to more informationally efficient prices prior to earnings announcements. Our findings stand as one piece of evidence suggesting positive externalities from recent Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) disclosure regulation and add to the scarce evidence on the consequences of changes in Form 4 filing requirements.     

Monotone imitation dynamics in large populations

We analyze a class of imitation dynamics with mutations for games with any finite number of actions, and give conditions for the selection of a unique equilibrium as the mutation rate becomes small and the population becomes large. Our results cover the multiple-action extensions of the aspiration-and-imitation process of Binmore and Samuelson [Muddling through: noisy equilibrium selection, J. Econ. Theory 74 (1997) 235–265] and the related processes proposed by Benaı¨m and Weibull [Deterministic approximation of stochastic evolution in games, Econometrica 71 (2003) 873–903] and Traulsen et al. [Coevolutionary dynamics: from finite to infinite populations, Phys. Rev. Lett. 95 (2005) 238701], as well as the frequency-dependent Moran process studied by Fudenberg et al. [Evolutionary game dynamics in finite populations with strong selection and weak mutation, Theoretical Population Biol. 70 (2006) 352–363]. We illustrate our results by considering the effect of the number of periods of repetition on the selected equilibrium in repeated play of the prisoner's dilemma when players are restricted to a small set of simple strategies.     

Private rates of return to education of Africans in South Africa for 1995: a Double Hurdle model

In this study, the private rates of return to education of African males and females in South Africa are estimated. Both Heckman's (1976) two-stage selection model and the more recent Double Hurdle model, with correlated errors between the participation and employment equations, is found to be more suitable for the earnings analysis than the one with uncorrelated errors. This might imply that people make the decisions to participate in the labour force and to take up a job offer simultaneously. The private rate of return to education of Africans is found to be 12 and 11 per cent for males and females, respectively. These rates are significantly higher than those found in previous analyses of rates of return to education in South Africa. In these older studies, the private rate of return to education of Africans was found to vary from 2,5 to 7,7 per cent.     

Rapid expansion of overseas banking

Since the mid-sixties the expansion of the overseas banking system of American banks accelerated. New impulses will be generated by the “petroldollars” of the oil producing countries which will most likely be handled by the overseas branches.     

Determinants of labour force participation in the North West province of South Africa

Based on data extracted from the 1995 October Household Survey of Statistics South Africa, this study has found that potential income is a major factor in labour force participation by African women in the North West province of South Africa. Other significant determinants of participation for both genders are age, education, region, marital status and relationship to the head of the household. The results imply that significant discrimination against African women still exists in the North West province, which partly explains the much lower participation rate for African women (64 per cent), compared with that of African men (86,5 per cent). The study supports the North West government's development strategy of developing human resources to eradicate poverty.