Policy capturing in small‐group decision making: Using linear programming to assign factor weights for the NCAA Selection Committee's ranking decisions in the 2016 through 2018 men's basketball tournaments

We present a general approach for applying policy capturing to small‐group decision making and demonstrate the approach with the NCAA Selection Committee's rankings of the 68 teams in the three most recent Division I Men's Basketball Tournaments. We develop a linear programming model that minimizes the extent to which the evaluation of a lower‐ranked team exceeds that of a team ranked immediately above it. The result is a set of linear weights that approximates a group decision when the decision itself is demonstrably internally inconsistent in that a group ranks some teams higher than others despite a lower implied evaluation.     

On the manager as principal clerk

Until recently, economic theory and economists treated the management process with benign neglect. Insofar as business enterprises — the firms of economic theory – require managers to oversee their daily operations, these managers are implicitly viewed as fungible ‘principal clerks’. This paper makes this view explicit and considers whether it is valid for a particular class of manager, that of a major league baseball team.     

On the adequacy of single‐stock futures margining requirements

Unlike the traditional futures contract risk‐based approach to margining, new security futures contracts are margined under a strategy‐based margining system similar to that which applies in the equity options markets. As a result, these new margin requirements are potentially much less sensitive to changes in market conditions. This article performs a simulation to evaluate whether these alternative margining methodologies can be expected to produce comparable outcomes. The analysis suggests that a 1‐day settlement period will likely lead to collection of customer margins that are virtually always greater than that which its traditional risk‐based counterpart would require. A 4‐day settlement period would lead to margin requirements that both significantly under‐ and overmargin relative to a comparable risk‐based system. This study argues that exchanges may approach the preferred probability of customer exhaustion by managing margin settlement intervals. Thus, the new strategy‐based rules, in and of themselves, will not necessarily inhibit new security futures trading activity. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 23:989–1002, 2003     

Membership size in the educable cooperative facing uncertain demand

This article explicitly incorporates layoff and hiring costs into a discretetime dynamic model with stationary demand uncertainty, in which managers in a cooperative learn something about the demand process over time, and anticipate learning something about that process. It is shown how the opportunity to learn affects initial membership size and how the knowledge gained induces changes in membership, as well as how risk preferences impact on membership size at any point in time.     

Determinants of Geographic Voter Participation Rate Differentials: the 2014 Mid-Term Election

Voter participation rates vary widely across the 50 states and the District of Columbia. This empirical study seeks, within the context of a broadened version of the “rational voter model,” to identify determinants of this geographic variation. Using the 2014 mid-term general election, it was found that the voter participation rate across states and the District of Columbia was positively related to whether there is a close governor’s race or a close U.S. Senate race, the female labor force participation rate, the percent of the population aged 65 and over, the number of referenda on the ballot, and the degree of voting-by-mail usage. In addition, it was found that voter turnout was negatively related to the percentages of the population that are either Hispanic or Afro-American.     

The Effect of the Hedge Horizon on Optimal Hedge Size and Effectiveness When Prices are Cointegrated

This study compares two alternative regression specifications for sizing hedge positions and measuring hedge effectiveness: a simple regression on price changes and an error correction model (ECM). We show that, when the prices of the hedged item and the hedging instrument are cointegrated, both specifications yield similar results which depend on the hedge horizon (i.e., the time frame for measuring price changes). In particular, the estimated hedge ratio and regression R² will both be small when price changes are measured over short intervals, but as the hedge horizon is lengthened both measures will converge toward one. These results imply that, when prices are cointegrated, a longer hedge horizon will yield an optimal hedge ratio closer to one, while at the same time enhancing the ability to qualify for hedge accounting. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 32:837–876, 2012     

Kyou‐sou in the Nippon baseball leagues

There is a well‐established long‐term trend towards increased competitive balance in US major‐league baseball. Kyou‐sou (competing) in the Nippon leagues has been on a similar upward trend. Nippon baseball, however, has not undergone the substantive institutional changes that mark the major leagues. After accounting for some of the factors that might explain this upward trend and eliminating some other plausible explanations, it is concluded that the greater competitive balance that currently exists may be the outgrowth of management policies that work to the benefit of fans as well as owners.     

OPTIONAL REAL-TIME PRICING OF ELECTRICITY FOR INDUSTRIAL FIRMS

Abstract. This paper proposes a pricing mechanism, optional real-time pricing (RTP), with day-ahead hourly prices, that exploits the potential offered by a competitive wholesale power market. When an electric utility offers the option to its industrial customers, the retail prices are based on an existing Hopkinson tariff and expectations as to the wholesale market's next-day hourly spot prices. The proposed RTP mechanism is Pareto-superior to the tariff in that it assures both the utility and the customer of profits that will be at least as great as under the tariff.