Media-Based Sentiment Indices as an Alternative Measure of Consumer Confidence

In this paper, we consider the feasibility of constructing online sentiment indices, using large amounts of media data, as an alternative to the conventional survey method used to create the consumer confidence index in South Africa. A clustering framework is adopted to provide an indication of possible candidate sentiment indices constructed from a combination of different text sources and dictionaries that best mimic the traditional survey-based consumer confidence index from the South African Bureau for Economic Research (BER). The results conclude that it is possible to create an index using sentiment analysis using online editorial data that does resemble the BER’s consumer confidence index. The different media-based sentiment indices (MSI) show a significant level of correlation and co-movement with the BER’s CCI. Impulse responses and cross-correlation functions indicate that the MSI could potentially lead the survey-based method up to two quarters. Furthermore, Granger-causality tests show that the media-based indices are good predictors of future consumer confidence index values. The results provide motivation for further study on the use of sentiment-based techniques and online media data sources to track consumer confidence within an emerging market such as South Africa.     

An Empirical Approach

There is empirical evidence that investors' confidence is not only adversely affected by corruption but also by the lack of predictability and confidence that accompanies corrupt deals. However, the positive aspect of this lack of confidence is that it acts as a deterrent to corruption. Empirical data provided here on a cross–section of countries proves that confidence in corrupt deals enhances the further spread of corruption. This suggests that the adverse effects of corruption cannot be avoided by divesting it of its unpredictability.     

Flexibility at different stages in the life cycle of projects: An empirical illustration of the “freedom to maneuver”

Many textbooks on project management present illustrations concerning the relative size of project attributes during different project phases. The derived models all have attributes in common, such as uncertainty, significance of decisions, and degree of freedom to maneuver, that are typically high in the beginning of the project and low in the end. At the same time, variables such as the accumulated cost and available information begin at low levels and end up at a high level at the end of the project. Based on empirical data from projects, this paper illustrates and quantifies one of these attributes, the freedom to maneuver, in different project phases.     

Environmental Innovations in Small and Medium Sized Enterprises

Supporting and accelerating the adoption and diffusion of environmental innovations amongst small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) is a major challenge to environmental policy makers. Research suggests that whilst SMEs possess high flexibility, their innovative capacity may be limited to incremental changes within their existing technology system and network. Twenty case studies examining the innovation adoption process in SMEs in four sectors and in five countries within the ENVIS project (commissioned by the EU) revealed great variety in factors driving this process. Findings indicate that this variation can be attributed to the character of the environmental innovation, the specific business opportunity, the regulatory setting and pressure experienced by the sector. Based on these findings an analytical framework is suggested, whereby the environmental innovative capability of SMEs is conceived as the result of an interplay between the competencies, the network relations and the strategic orientation of the company (the 'dynamic triangle'). This indicates that policy to support SME's adoption of environmental innovations has to take an integrated form, i.e. addressing and developing competence, networks and strategic orientation of SMEs simultaneously whilst remaining systemic and context sensitive.     

The Austrian current account deficit: Driven by twin deficits or by intertemporal expenditure allocation?

The evidence presented in the paper rejects the twin deficit hypothesis for the Austrian current account balance during the last two decades. The results are based on an estimate of a vector error correction model including quarterly data for the current account balance and potentially relevant variables driving its dynamics. We compute the variance decomposition of the current account's forecast error and its generalized impulse responses to shocks in the innovations of the system. The results in favor of intertemporal expenditure reallocation cannot be reproduced within a second analysis including the current account and a measure of net output, however. The estimated implicit current account balance, interpreted as the discounted expected change in future net output, does not follow the actual behaviour of the current account. First version received: June 1999/Final version received: March 2001     

Chance Constrained Programming Formulations for Stochastic Characterizations of Efficiency and Dominance in DEA

Pareto-Koopmans efficiency in Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) is extended to stochastic inputs and outputs via probabilistic input-output vector comparisons in a given empirical production (possibility) set. In contrast to other approaches which have used Chance Constrained Programming formulations in DEA, the emphasis here is on joint chance constraints. An assumption of arbitrary but known probability distributions leads to the P-Model of chance constrained programming. A necessary condition for a DMU to be stochastically efficient and a sufficient condition for a DMU to be non-stochastically efficient are provided. Deterministic equivalents using the zero order decision rules of chance constrained programming and multivariate normal distributions take the form of an extended version of the additive model of DEA. Contacts are also maintained with all of the other presently available deterministic DEA models in the form of easily identified extensions which can be used to formalize the treatment of efficiency when stochastic elements are present.     

Politically stable pay-as-you-go pension systems: When the social-insurance budget is too small in a democracy

The essay analyzes in an overlapping-generations model, to which extent a pay-as-you-go pension system will be the outcome of majority voting, given specific institutional set-ups. Clearly, the vote of an active person depends on his expectations about how the present decision (i.e., his contribution) is linked to the future (i.e., his benefits), when he will be retired. In the paper we employ the assumption of a basic social contract where each active voter's future benefits are positively related to his contributions. It is shown that in this framework a steady-state with a positive (though lower than optimal) level of the pension system exists, even if a new majority decision about the system takes place every period.     

Economic and Household Impacts of Projected Policy Changes for the Irish Agri‐food Sector

The policy environment for the Irish agri‐food sector could change rapidly in the coming decade. A potentially positive factor will be the elimination of milk quotas in 2015, although a potentially negative factor will be further trade liberalisation and increased import competition. These changes come on top of the move to decouple direct aids to farmers in 2005 as part of the Mid‐Term Review of the EU's Common Agricultural Policy agreed in 2003. This paper examines these reforms and their impacts on the Irish economy and income distribution using a CGE model particularly rich in detail on the agri‐food sectors, differentiated household groups, and agricultural policy instruments including their links to productive factors and households. The results suggest that the past and projected changes in the policy environment have, in sum, a small positive impact on GDP and household income. However, the gains and losses are unequally distributed across sectors and household groups due to the highly differentiated distribution of support and protection. Although all households generally gain from the sequence of policy reforms in the long run, some experience strong adverse effects from particular reforms and in the medium term.