Stochastic Models of Implied Volatility Surfaces

We propose a market–based approach to the modelling of implied volatility, in which the implied volatility surface is directly used as the state variable to describe the joint evolution of market prices of options and their underlying asset. We model the evolution of an implied volatility surface by representing it as a randomly fluctuating surface driven by a finite number of orthogonal random factors. Our approach is based on a Karhunen–Loeve decomposition of the daily variations of implied volatilities obtained from market data on SP500 and DAX options.
We illustrate how this approach extends and improves the accuracy of the well–known 'sticky moneyness' rule used by option traders for updating implied volatilities. Our approach gives a justification for the use of 'Vegas' for measuring volatility risk and provides a decomposition of volatility risk as a sum of independent contributions from empirically identifiable factors.
(J.E.L.: G130, C14, C31).     

Differences in exchange rate pass-through in the euro area

This paper focuses on the pass-through of exchange rate changes into the prices of imports made by euro area countries originating outside the area. Using data on import unit values for 13 different product categories for each country, we estimate industry-specific rates of pass-through across and within countries for all euro members. In the short-run, pass-through rates differ across industries and countries and are less than one. In the long-run neither full pass-through nor equality of pass-through rates across industries and countries can be rejected. Differences exist across euro area countries in the degree that a common exchange rate movement gets transmitted into consumer prices and costs of production indices. Most of these differences in transmission rates are due to the distinct degree of openness of each country to non-euro area imports rather than to the heterogeneity in the structure of imports.     

Towards a Theory of Organizational Improvisation: Looking Beyond the Jazz Metaphor

abstract This paper calls for research on organizational improvisation to go beyond the currently dominant jazz metaphor in theory development. We recognize the important contribution that jazz improvisation has made and will no doubt continue to make in understanding the nature and complexity of organizational improvisation. This article therefore presents some key lessons from the jazz metaphor and then proceeds to identify the possible dangers of building scientific inquiry upon a single metaphor. We then present three alternative models – Indian music, music therapy and role theory. We explore their nature and seek to identify ways in which the insights they generate complement those from jazz. This leads us to a better understanding of the challenges of building a theory of organizational improvisation.     

Choosing sides in the trilemma: international financial cycles and structural change in developing economies

ABSTRACT

This paper analyzes the impact of international financial cycles on structural change in developing economies. It is argued that the impact of these cycles depends on the specific combination of macroeconomic and industrial policies adopted by the developing economy. The cases of Brazil and Argentina are contrasted with those of Korea and China. In the Asian economies, macroeconomic policy has been a complementary tool along with industrial policy to foster the diversification of production and capabilities. Inversely, in the case of the Latin American countries, long periods of real exchange rate (RER) appreciation, combined with the weaknesses (or absence) of industrial policies, contributed to the loss of capabilities and lagging behind.     

Perceptions of poverty attributions in Europe: a multilevel mixture model approach

The perception of the causes of poverty has long been recognized as a very important factor in the broader study of this social phenomenon. This study covers 15 European Union countries and considers three types of poverty attributions: individualistic, societal, and fatalistic. The individualistic view perception believes the poor are responsible for their situation, the societal perspective blames society for poverty and the fatalistic view considers poverty to be the result of bad luck or fate. A multilevel mixture model with three clusters of countries and six clusters of individuals was identified. Despite the generalization of the social explanations of poverty at the individual or micro level, there are also groups that emphasize more individualistic explanations, blaming the poor for their condition. At the country or macro level, the most developed cluster believes in the individualistic and fatalistic causes of poverty, whereas the least developed clusters explain poverty based on the injustices of society. There is diversity in the way these countries perceive poverty.     

Creating sustainable value in the hospitality industry: a (critical) multi-stakeholder study in the Dominican Republic

This paper identifies sustainable initiatives reported by “sustainability-champion” hotels in the Dominican Republic, while contrasting them against the views of key stakeholders. We adapt and apply Hart and Milstein's Sustainable Value Framework, and complement it with a Critical Management Studies approach. Our analysis relies on a mixed-methods approach (non-hierarchical k-means cluster analysis, as well as thematic and content analysis). Findings indicate that most hotels are engaging more actively in present-oriented strategies such as pollution prevention (especially, the international hotels) and in product/service stewardship. However, in the future-oriented strategies, hotels owned by local investors show higher commitment to both clean technology and innovation, and to the sustainability vision (as the firm's growth path). In addition, although the views of multiple stakeholders show a clear acknowledgment of the hospitality industry's sustainability efforts (particularly regarding education and environmental protection), they also offer differing views about the ultimate impact and value of those efforts for them and for the broader society. Our study offers a new theoretical lens to explore multi-stakeholder approaches and offers practical implications for the Dominican Republic's National Strategy for Development 2010–2030, as well as implications that may be of use for other tourism-dependent countries.     

Endogenous cartel formation: Experimental evidence

In a Bertrand-oligopoly experiment, firms choose whether or not to engage in cartel-like communication and, if so, they may get fined by a cartel authority. We find that the four-firm industries form cartels more often than the duopolies because they gain less from a hysteresis effect after cartel disruption.     

Global financial crisis and dependence risk analysis of sector portfolios: a vine copula approach

We use regular vine (r-vine), canonical vine (c-vine) and drawable vine (d-vine) copulas to examine the dependence risk characteristics of three 20-stock portfolios from the retail, manufacturing and gold-mining equity sectors of the Australian market in periods before, during and after the 2008–2009 global financial crisis (GFC). Our results indicate that the retail portfolio is less risky than the manufacturing counterpart in the crisis period, while the gold-mining portfolio is less risky than both the retail and manufacturing sector portfolios. Both the retail and gold stocks display a higher propensity to yield positively skewed returns in the crisis periods, contrary to the manufacturing stocks. The r-vine is found to best capture the multivariate dependence structure of the stocks in the retail and gold-mining portfolios, while the d-vine does it for the manufacturing stock portfolio. These findings could be used to develop dependence risk- and investment risk-adjusted strategies for investment, rebalancing and hedging which more adequately account for the downside risk in various market conditions.     

Distributional effects of social security reforms: The case of France

This paper assesses the impact of two social security reforms using a calibrated, dynamic life cycle model. It quantifies the long‐run distributional impact of two sets of reforms in France: (1) the 2013 reform of Prime Minister Ayrault, which modified the parameters of a defined benefit (DB) plan, and (2) a hypothetical reform that changes the system to a notional defined contribution (NDC) plan, similar to that in Italy. First, on aggregate welfare, the Ayrault reform and the hypothetical switch to NDC yield contrasting results. The Ayrault reform improves aggregate welfare, which is not the case for the NDC reform. Welfare comparisons are made with respect to the “benchmark economy,” where increases in life expectancy occur and are dealt with only through a higher contribution rate. Second, both reforms yield unequal distributions of welfare changes, with low‐skill workers on the losing end. Under the Ayrault reform, low‐skill workers delay retirement by two years, to age 62. Under NDC reform, pensions for low‐skill workers fall substantially as inequalities during the work life translate directly into inequalities in pensions. The switch to an NDC scheme leads to a more unequal society in terms of asset and welfare distribution.