PROBLEMS OF A CENSUS OF NATIONAL WEALTH

This paper is essentially a summary of the book Measuring the Nation's Wealth (Volume 29, Studies in Income and Wealth, New York: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1964), which is the report of study directed by the author. The purpose o f the study was to assess the problems and possibilities of conducting a national census of real wealth as a basis for continuing wealth and balance sheet estimates for the U.S. economy, by major sector.
It is stressed that the balance sheets and wealth estimates should be designed as a consistent part of an integrated system of national income accounts. Thus, valuation (at market prices and/or depreciated replacement costs), sectoring, and type-of-asset detail in the basic data and derived estimates should be compatible with the flow estimates contained in the economic accounts. Consistency of stock and flow estimates facilitates analysis of inter-relationships, and is helpful in the estimation process.
It is recommended that in the U.S. asset data by broad categories be collected as part of the recurring economic censuses and other reporting systems, but that detail on fixed reproducible assets (construction and equipment) at cost, by year or period of acquisition, be obtained from a small sample of respondents in each industry. The detail would be useful in its own right, and also permit revaluation of the assets by use of price indexes and depreciation rates to a current depreciated replacement cost basis. Where feasible, respondent estimates of market values would also be obtained.
The proposal is thus a compromise between the Japanese 1955 sample survey of assets, and the detailed wealth inventory of the U.S.S.R. which was begun in 1959. Preliminary work is now underway in the U.S. federal statistical agencies to expand collection of asset data, and to prepare comprehensive wealth estimates in the framework of the national income accounts.     

The empirical relationship between commitment enhancement devices and terrorism

An extant theoretical literature attributes the high lethality of violent extremist religious sects (VERSs) to their comparative advantage in assembling coalitions of highly committed operatives and identifies sacrifice and stigma (S&S) and social service provision (SSP) as the primary commitment enhancement devices VERSs employ. However, lack of direct measures of the VERSs’ deployment of these devices has impeded efforts to test the hypothesized effects of S&S and SSP on terrorism. This article exploits the relationship between exogenous variation in the marginal productivities of S&S and SSP as inputs in the production of commitment and variation in VERSs’ employment of these inputs to identify proxies for S&S and SSP. Using data from 158 countries, our cross-sectional estimates of the effects of S&S and SSP on the impact of terrorism are significant and larger than the effects of geographic and political variables that are consistently reported to be both significant and substantial.     

Diplomatic relations and tourism advertising effectiveness: U.S. travel interest to Cuba

This study explores the relationship between nation brand familiarity and increased interest in tourism and tourism advertising effectiveness. Surveys fielded a few months before and a few months after the historic 17 December 2014 announcement of improved diplomatic relations between the United States and Cuba showed an increase in familiarity with Cuba as well as increased interest in traveling to Cuba among US adults. Respondents also indicated a more favorable reaction to a 30-s ad agency-produced television commercial for Cuba tourism. Results are discussed in light of literature on destination brand familiarity as it relates to brand interest and advertising evaluation. Implications for destination marketing managers are presented.     

Mitigation of the Lucas critique with stochastic control methods

Lucas (In: Brunner, K., Meltzer, A.H. (Eds.), The Phillips Curve and the Labor Markets, Supplementary Series to the Journal of Monetary Economics, 1976, pp. 19–46) pointed out, that when optimization is performed on a deterministic macro model, the resulting policy may not reflect the true optimal solution. Private agents may react to announced policies and consequently model parameters will start to drift. The aim of this paper is to develop a methodology for deriving an optimal policy in the presence of rational expectations and parameter drift. This drift is captured by a stochastic optimization framework with time-varying parameters. The resulting optimal policy is capable of tracking changes in the parameters due to policy changes. A numerical example illustrates how the methodology provides a way to mitigate the effects of the Lucas critique.