Large Non-Union Companies: How Do They Avoid a Catch 22?

Large non-union companies might be expected to enjoy extensive work-force flexibility deriving from their high-wage, high-involvement strategies. However, where there is a strong local union presence, this might be expected to exert a strong dampening effect on the levels of internal flexibility achieved. Such companies, fearful of union organization, could not then enjoy the freedoms that might be associated with a non-union strategy. Research conducted in the Republic of Ireland on large non-union US companies operating in the electronics industry suggests a conceptual framework indicating how a Catch-22 situation is avoided in these companies.     

How Fast Do Banks Adjust? A Dynamic Model of Labor-Use with an Application to Swedish Banks

This paper deals with a dynamic adjustment process in which adjustment of a key variable input (labor) towards its desired level is modeled in a panel data context. The partial adjustment type model is extended to make the adjustment parameter both firm- and time-specific by specifying it as a function of firm- and time-specific variables. Desired level of labor use is represented by a labor requirement function, which is a function of outputs and other firm-specific variables. The catch-up factor is defined as the ratio of actual to desired level of employment. Productivity growth is then defined in terms of a shift in the desired level of labor use and the change in the catch-up factor. Swedish banking data is used as an application of the above model.     

Natural conjugate priors for the instrumental variables regression model applied to the Angrist–Krueger data

We propose a natural conjugate prior for the instrumental variables regression model. The prior is a natural conjugate one since the marginal prior and posterior of the structural parameter have the same functional expressions which directly reveal the update from prior to posterior. The Jeffreys prior results from a specific setting of the prior parameters and results in a marginal posterior of the structural parameter that has an identical functional form as the sampling density of the limited information maximum likelihood estimator. We construct informative priors for the Angrist–Krueger [1991. Does compulsory school attendance affect schooling and earnings? Quarterly Journal of Economics 106, 979–1014] data and show that the marginal posterior of the return on education in the US coincides with the marginal posterior from the Southern region when we use the Jeffreys prior. This result occurs since the instruments are the strongest in the Southern region and the posterior using the Jeffreys prior, identical to maximum likelihood, focusses on the strongest available instruments. We construct informative priors for the other regions that make their posteriors of the return on education similar to that of the US and the Southern region. These priors show the amount of prior information needed to obtain comparable results for all regions.     

Getting Shut Out of the International Capital Markets: It Doesn't Take Much*

We use a simple model of international lending to show that an emerging market borrower who might default can be shut out of international capital markets without warning. A modest haircut on obligations, for example, can shut down lending.     

The Methodology of Risk Perception Research

Risk perception is not strictly a matter ofsensory perception, but of attitudesand expectations. As such, it can be studied byreasonably well developed methods of attitudemeasurement and psychological scaling. Suchmeasurement needs to be applied in a pragmaticfashion, however, since the discussions of fundamentalmeasurement and requirements of scale levelsappropriate for various types of statistical analysis hasfailed in establishing a useful basis for empiricalresearch. The paper also discuses samplingprocedures and the response rateproblem. In risk perception work, there is usually abias involving too many respondents withan above average level ofeducation, but that variable tends to be weaklyrelated to risk perception variables. Finally,post-modern claims and their rejection ofquantitative methods are critically discussed.     

An interest rate defense of a fixed exchange rate?

Defending a government's exchange-rate commitment with active interest rate policy is not an option in first-generation models of speculative attacks. In those models, the interest rate is the passive reflection of currency-depreciation expectations. In this paper, we show how to adapt the first-generation framework to allow for an interest rate defense. It is shown that increasing domestic currency interest rate before the attack makes domestic assets more attractive according to an asset substitution effect, but weakens the domestic currency by increasing the government's fiscal liabilities. As a result, an interest rate defense can be successful only conditional on sound fiscal policy.     

The Future European Labor Supply: The Critical Role of the Family

The European employment strategy initiated in 1997 is critically dependent upon the further integration of women into the labor market. The European Union has set a specific target employment rate for women of 60 percent by 2010 and is also committed to providing more and better child care facilities. This gender focus is reinforced by the requirement for gender mainstreaming in all aspects of European employment policy. There is an implied Europe-wide, universal policy of encouraging female labor-market participation and reducing the care work performed by domestic labor. However, the European Commission continues to have limited competence in areas of family, social, and welfare policy. As a result, these common employment objectives for women are thus being pursued against a background of quite different systems of social, family, welfare, and indeed labor-market organization. These systems have different economic and employment implications, such that the outcomes of the common European employment strategy will also be highly variable.     

The Swedish third way: an assessment of the performance and validity of the Rehn-Meidner model

This paper analyses the functioning of the Rehn–Meidnermodel in Sweden and the validity of the model's underlying theory.Both sceptics and friends of ‘the Swedish model’have exaggerated the effects of active labour market policyand solidarity wage policy on employment, inflation and growth.However, these policies have contributed to the reduction ofhysteresis effects and wage differentials in Sweden. Furthermore,Swedish experiences confirm the Rehn–Meidner view thatpositive demand shocks and expansionary macroeconomic policiesmake it difficult to combine full employment with price stability,economic growth and equity even if central wage negotiationsare coordinated and trade unions willingly accept wage restraint.