Coordinating expectations through central bank projections

Experimental Economics - Central banks are increasingly communicating their economic outlook in an effort to manage the public and financial market participants’ expectations. We provide...     

After‐hours trading in equity futures markets

Although it is well known that electronic futures data absorb news (slightly) in advance of spot markets the role of the electronic futures movement in out‐of‐hours trading has not previously been explored. The behavior of the 24‐hour trade in the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 futures market reveals the important role of these markets in absorbing news releases occurring outside of normal trading hours. Peaks in volume and volatility in this market occur in conjunction with U.S. 8:30 A.M. EST news releases, before the opening of the open‐outcry markets, and in a less pronounced fashion immediately post‐close the open‐outcry market. Price impact in these markets is statistically higher in the post‐close than in the pre‐open periods. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 29:114–136, 2009     

Distributing scarce jobs and output: experimental evidence on the dynamic effects of rationing

How does the allocation of scarce jobs and production influence their supply? We present the results of a macroeconomics laboratory experiment that investigates the effects of alternative rationing schemes on economic stability. Participants play the role of worker-consumers who interact in labor and output markets. All output, which yields a reward to participants, must be produced through costly labor. Automated firms hire workers to produce output so long as there is sufficient demand for all production. In every period either output or labor hours are rationed. Random queue, equitable, and priority (i.e., property rights) rationing schemes are compared. Production volatility is the lowest under a priority rationing rule and is significantly higher under a scheme that allocates the scarce resource through a random queue. Production converges toward the steady state under a priority rule, but can diverge to significantly lower levels under a random queue or equitable rule where there is the opportunity for and perception of free-riding. At the individual level, rationing in the output market leads consumer-workers to supply less labor in subsequent periods. A model of myopic decision-making is developed to rationalize the results.