THE DECLINE OF JAPAN'S SAVING RATE AND DEMOGRAPHIC EFFECTS*

This paper investigates the phenomenon in which Japan's household saving rate showed a sharp decline even during the long stagnation period called “the lost decade.” Our empirical results show that the sharp decline in the saving rate in the 1990s can be explained by the significant impact of demographic factors. Furthermore, the estimated life cycle curve is hump shaped, meaning that the prediction of the life cycle model is confirmed with time series data on the Japanese saving rate.     

日本经济政策与新自由主义

英国、美国分别于上世纪70年代末与80年代初,建立了新自由主义的撒切尔政权与里根政体。日本也于1982年在中曾根首相的领导下开始了新自由主义改革,然而中曾根改革只能被称为是日本新自由主义的萌芽,日本真正开始新自由主义改革比英国、美国要晚十多年。造成这一迟延的主要原因是日本在当时并没有发生西方世界的资本积累危机以及日本的资本全球化迟缓。同时,当时日本奉行的"开发主义体制"又成为日本推行新自由主义的障碍,使得日本新自由主义只能在逐步的障碍克服中,迂回曲折地前进。