HIV infection and economic growth

This paper presents an endogenous growth model based on a simplified ‘learning by doing’ model. In this model, a negative shock, namely HIV infection, leads to a stationary active population. We show it is possible to neutralize the effects of the HIV shock while at the same time insuring steady economic growth. However, this result vanishes in the absence of a policy to fight against the HIV shock. Further, an increase of the HIV infection rate negatively affects the growth rate of the economy. This last finding implies that a high and sustainable economic growth rate is incompatible with a high incidence of HIV infection of the active population.