On investment and exchange-rate movements

We investigate the ways in which permanent exchange-rate changes may affect investment by influencing domestic and foreign revenue, the cost of imported variable inputs and the investment price of imported capital goods. We find that the revenue and investment-price channels have a quantitatively greater effect on investment than the cost channel. The negative effect of the revenue channel, which affects the marginal profitability of capital, outweighs the positive effect of the investment-price channel, which affects the marginal cost of capital, implying that exchange-rate appreciation has a net negative influence on investment. The estimation results are robust to different approaches to extracting the permanent components of exchange rates.     

The shale revolution and shifting crude dynamics

Oil price fluctuates in response to both demand and supply shocks. This paper proposes a new methodology that allows for timely identification of the shifting contribution from the two types of shock through a joint analysis of crude futures options and stock index options. Historical analysis shows that crude oil price movements are dominated by supply shocks from 2004 to 2008, but demand shocks have become much more dominant since then. The large demand shock following the 2008 financial crisis contributes to the start of this dynamics shift, whereas the subsequent shale revolution has fundamentally altered the crude supply behavior.     

Network dynamics with a nested node set: Sociability in seven villages in Senegal

We propose two complementary ways to deal with a nesting structure in the node set of a network—such a structure may be called a multilevel network, with a node set consisting of several groups. First, within-group ties are distinguished from between-group ties by considering them as two distinct but interrelated networks. Second, effects of nodal variables are differentiated according to the levels of the nesting structure, to prevent ecological fallacies. This is elaborated in a study of two repeated observations of a sociability network in seven villages in Senegal, analyzed using the Stochastic Actor-oriented Model.     

Canada–US productivity gap: The role of competition intensity differential

The relative lack of competitive pressure in product markets and lower investment in both fundamental and applied innovation are among the potential factors that have been put forward to explain Canada’s weak productivity performance with respect to the US. Since competition is generally seen as the single leading catalyst for fundamental and applied innovation, this paper analyzes the role of product market competition in the Canada–US productivity level gap. We develop an empirical framework in which competition exerts both direct and indirect effects on productivity, with the indirect impact coming through fundamental and applied innovation. We find statistically significant evidence that the competition intensity differential (between Canada and the US) has contributed to the Canada–US productivity level gap directly, as well as indirectly through lower investment in both R&D activities and M&E (including ICT) investment. We also find statistically significant evidence that Canada’s relatively poor performance in both productivity and M&E (including ICT) investment have acted as a self-reinforcing mechanism, which further causes detriment to the country’s productivity.     

Foreign-affiliate presence and skilled labour demand

This paper investigates the effect of inward foreign investment on the relative employment of skilled labour. The extensive review of the empirical evidence shows that the results seem to be country-specific. Using Canadian industry-level panel data, the paper shows that most Canadian industries have experienced skill upgrading, and that foreign investment, as measured by FDI or majority ownership, has contributed to this development. Moreover, notwithstanding higher regulatory restrictions on foreign investment into Canadian services industries, foreign investment has had a similar impact on skill upgrading across both the services and non-services sectors. Finally, offshoring is found to only have a positive significant impact on skill upgrading in the services sector.     

A new multi-factor risk model to evaluate funding liquidity risk of banks

The present paper investigates funding liquidity risk of banks. We present a new statistical multi-factor risk model leading to three new funding liquidity risk metrics, thanks to liquidity gap's probability distribution analysis. We test our model on a large sample composed of 593 US banking companies, this allows us to identify some stylized facts regarding the evolution of liquidity risk and its relationship with the size of banking companies. Our main motivation is to develop ‘the contractual maturity mismatch’ monitoring tool proposed within the Basel III reform.