Predicting the equity market with option-implied variables

We comprehensively analyze the predictive power of several option-implied variables for monthly S&P 500 excess returns and realized variance. The correlation risk premium (CRP) and the variance risk premium (VRP) emerge as strong predictors of both excess returns and realized variance. This is true both in- and out-of-sample. Our results also reveal that statistical evidence of predictability does not necessarily lead to economic gains. However, a timing strategy based on the CRP leads to utility gains of more than 5.03% per annum. Forecast combinations provide stable forecasts for both excess returns and realized variance, and add economic value.     

Modelling the choice between regulation and liability in terms of social welfare

Abstract.  Using a formal political economy model with asymmetric information, we illustrate the conditions under which an environmental protection system based on extending liability to private financiers is welfare superior, inferior, or equivalent to a system based on an incentive regulatory scheme subject to capture by the regulatees. We explicitly consider the following factors: the cost of care and its efficiency in reducing the probability of an environmental accident, the social cost of public funds, the net profitability of the risky activities, the level of damages, and the regulatory capture bias. We characterize in such a parameter space the regions where one system dominates the other. JEL classification: D82, K32     

Capacity Commitment versus Flexibility

We show how technological flexibility choices and equilibrium configurations (both simultaneous and sequential duopoly) depend on six industry characteristics. Low market volatility combined with intermediate market size favors inflexible technologies; large values of either volatility or size favor flexible technologies; low or intermediate values of both favor the coexistence of flexible and inflexible technologies. The possibility of a flexibility trap exists in industries of low volatility and intermediate size. Entry prevention can sometimes be achieved by inflexible technologies or flexible technologies, depending on the industry characteristics.     

Notes and Communications, Horses for Courses: Why Europe Should Not Harmonise its Book Policies

European countries have similar cultural goals for books. The most common are the promotion of reading and the production of (literary) books (of a diverse nature). The extent to which the free market can achieve the cultural goals is uncertain and differs across countries. In cases where the free market does not achieve the goals or politicians do not want to accept uncertainty, a policy instrument is needed. Commonly used instruments in Europe include the fixed book price, subsidies, libraries, and lower VAT. We demonstrate that differences among European countries matter and that harmonisation of European book policies is not a good idea.     

Tourism today: A geographical analysis : by D.G. Pearce Longman, Harlow, 1986, 229 pages, £9.95

Chris Cooper, of Surrey University's Department of Management Studies for Tourism and Hotel Industries, describes the uses and significance of the technique of interpretation in providing an interface between the tourist destination and the visitor. Interpretation can enhance the visitor experience by making the attributes of the resort more comprehensible.     

The durability of consumer durables

The life span of a product is a key component in assessing its environmental impact. Until very recently, however, product durability was far from prominent in the environmental debate. This has begun to change due to mounting concern about waste, the prospect of producer ‘take back’ schemes and the importance of quality in highly competitive international markets. This has led to product durability emerging on the business and environment agenda. This paper explores the significance of product life spans and identifies currently available data on the life-span of consumer durables. It defines product life and argues that, from an environmental perspective, optimum product life, rather than maximum product life should be the goal. It suggests that potential advantages to businesses of manufacturing and retailing products with longer life spans include improved environmental foresight (i.e. a greater responsiveness to new social trends, changes in consumer behaviour and tighter government regulations), an enhanced reputation for quality, greater potential market share and increased customer loyalty. Addressing claims that manufacturers deliberately make products with the intention that they should have life spans below the known technical potential, the paper identifies some of the influences upon manufacturers which encourage shorter product life spans. Finally, some means by which longer life products might be encouraged are proposed.     

There's something about saving …

The paper considers how people should plan their saving, given certain assumptions about inheritance and changes in household circumstances. The results are produced by a model that takes into account tax and state benefits as well as various private savings vehicles. It concludes that, for many households, saving for retirement through a ‘pension’ might not be optimum and that the best strategy is to vary the incidence and allocation of saving in response to changes in household circumstances.     

Localized Innovation and Productivity Growth in Asia: An Intertemporal DEA Approach

Recent contributions to growth theory stress the importance of localized innovation for the performance of more backward countries. In earlier papers, analyses by means of DEA techniques confirmed this intuition. In this paper, we extend this type of analysis by relaxing the macroeconomic viewpoint adopted until now. New databases on output, labor and capital input in the agricultural and manufacturing sectors are developed for 40 countries. Using intertemporal DEA, it is found that changes in the global production frontier are localized at high levels of capital intensity. This result is stronger in agriculture than in manufacturing. Further, a decomposition of labor productivity growth in eight Asian countries for the period 1975–1992 into the effects of capital intensification, learning and innovation is made. The results suggest that there is a particular development path in which increases in capital intensity appear to be a prerequisite to benefit from international technology spillovers.JEL Classification: O14, O30, O40, O47     

Furthering the integration of marketing and logistics through customer service in the channel

Recent emphasis on customer service in both the academic and trade literature reveals a growing but confusing body of knowledge. Both the marketing and logistics disciplines have offered varying definitions of customer service, but have failed to offer a comprehensive framework which represents customer service and its related marketing and logistics issues. This article offers the viewpoint that customer service is a conceptual unifying factor for integrating marketing and logistics. The channel system is introduced as the vehicle by which buyer/seller relationships must be analyzed to understand formation of buyer expectations, interaction of marketing and logistics activities, and subsequent customer service performance. The institutional, behavioral, and physical dimensions of channel activity influence many of the marketing and logistics decisions made by management. The framework offered in this article differs from previous efforts in that customer service is the output of the unified activities of marketing and logistics. It considers marketing and logistics decisions jointly, re-evaluates and expands the production function in logistics, and ties customer service to customer satisfaction or dissatisfaction.     

Old flames never die – the role of binding social ties for corporate entrepreneurship in family firms

This paper investigates the role of social ties and family embeddedness for corporate entrepreneurship in family firms. Family firms are mostly characterized by close and often inseparable ties between the dominant family coalition and the firm and offer specific resources within a context of both rational as well as non-rational factors that influence entrepreneurial strategies. We empirically test (n =?181) the relationship between binding social ties and innovation, strategic renewal, and corporate venturing. Our findings indicate a strong significance for networks and close and stable relationships both to inside the firm and the outside in decision making for corporate venturing and innovation. In contrast, the results for strategic renewal show no relevance of strong social ties. We link up with the debate on the role of owners as an important stakeholder group.